Pacers vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - June 23, 2025

A natural extension of the 100 pt fade. No team has hit 100 in Finals G7 since 1988, and no team has hit 50 in the 1H either. Heck we only even have one 49 and one 46 in that whole span. Teams tend to play nervy ugly ball so as @iamrahstradamus says, let’s bet against human achievement. Shouts Lior Kozai on the idea. Under half props at 365.

Strap party

I’m going to keep attacking this prop with the level of aggression that Jdub has had this series. He’s relentlessly attacking the rim and so far this series he’s gone 4/4, 8/9, 7/11, and 11/11, 9/12 and 4/5 from the charity stripe. Last game he only played 27 minutes due to the blowout and he hasn’t played more than 36 this series. Considering it’s a Game 7, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him play minutes in the mid 40s. He’s an 80% free throw shooter on his career, and given the opportunities he should be able to convert on at least 5 attempts.

Another I love from BA

This has cashed in 3/6 Finals games and you love to bet unders and fade scoring in Finals Game 7. Haliburton assists fade has been great, one game at 11 but otherwise 7-6-6-6-5 steadily under this number. SGA all over the place, did have 8-10 in two wins but way under the other four. No one else close. Passing and assists have just dried up and Finals G7 only push it further. If SGA does hit 8, we likely cash out assist leader bet, and there’s a decent chance of middling and cashing both.

I am ready to get hurt again. SGA assists have been a nightmare this series but align in a huge way with Thunder wins. He’s been the assists leader with 8 and 10 in the two good OKC wins, vs 5-4-2 in their losses. Our fade Hali assists play has crushed this round, only one game over 7 and 4/6 at 6 or below. You should definitely only play this if you like OKC. Escalator for SGA points and Siakam reb leaders if you want a fun sprinkle.

I am ready to get hurt again. SGA assists have been a nightmare this series but align in a huge way with Thunder wins. He’s been the assists leader with 8 and 10 in the two good OKC wins, vs 5-4-2 in their losses. Our fade Hali assists play has crushed this round, only one game over 7 and 4/6 at 6 or below. You should definitely only play this if you like OKC. Escalator for SGA points and Siakam reb leaders if you want a fun sprinkle.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

OKC games this series and all playoffs have swung in a huge way home vs road. Thunder 10-2 at home, led big in the two losses at the buzzer, lowest win by 7, with all but one double digits and half by 26+. Avg margin +21 at home vs -7 road for playoffs. Home team 15-4 in Finals G7, and the home-road split checks out for OKC. Such a young team has played demonstrably better at home, and it's especially important for the defensive energy and the whistle, core to OKC identity. The most reliable prediction in this game is OKC playing with more D intensity and flipping the possessions game back its direction with TOs and oreb. Even if the half court offenses stall both ways, that math swing on possessions should be enough. Usually don't get blowouts in Finals G7, but over a third of OKC wins by 18+ all season and 10 wins by 30+ including playoff ens if 30-32-43-51. Nibble some alts in case OKC blows it open with a couple TO-fueled runs. Better alts based on history may be Pacers TT unders. No team has scored 100 in Finals G7 since 1988 with these games grinding it out. OKC held each previous playoff opponent <100 twice and <90 once. Pacers 7-3-1 to TT under as road dog in playoffs, OKC opp 10-1-1 to TT under. Great way to invest in G7 under + OKC defense, especially since Indy could even win and still hit the TT unders at 100-95-90.

Indy has failed to top 20pts for any scorer 4x in finals, including 2 of 3 wins. Harder to see it for OKC but could be in range just with typical G7 under. Never a bad idea to bet against scoring in a Finals G7, with no team hitting 100 in one since 1988. Under Elias specials.

McConnell has at least 1 steal all but one Finals game. He’s currently tied for the lead with Caruso, who can have monster games but also has two with no steals and seems to be wearing down. TJ minutes trending up, and a dead heat is still a solid payout at +250.

11-11-18 minutes last 3g after 10 total the first 3g. 3 reb in two of those, and in 69% of games this season with 11+ minutes. Series trending smaller again and gee the small ball C, Reb good for all the missed shots in G7, and he plays garbage minutes too so this hits in a blowout also.

Turner has 3-5-2 blocks in pacers wins but ZERO in losses. Struggling all series.

Not looking for points or assists over in a gritty defensive G7 but I’ll make an exception for Indiana’s real Finals MVP. TJ is over this in 4/6 finals games and hooked in another, 13/17/15/10/22/18, avg almost 16 and trending up with 23mpg last 2g with Hali bothered by calf injury. Looks good even with the G7 tax.

Scoring typically down in G7 esp Finals. Record is 42 from Jerry West in losing effort (won FMVP!), but winning team record is 37. Likely just looking to fade SGA here, number just too short with the stakes and defense in play. If history happens, we pay it off.

Over 1.5 in 7 of 12 (58%) home post vs 1 of 10 (10%) road. 7 of 8 STL this series have come at home, averaging 2.33 home, 0.33 road. 2.18 STL/36 w/.Caruso on, 1.39 off (+0.79) and Caruso 28.2 MPG this series, up from 19.3 reg, 22.5 Rpunds 1-3.

Someone on Thunder needs to start hitting 3PT. Caruso likely see 30+ min since its G7 and like the bounceback spot after his worst game of the series.

Under 10.5 in 14 of 22 (64%) post, including 8 of 12 (67%) home. Under 10.5 in 38 of 54 (70%) reg+post, including 23 of 29 home (79%). 9.0 REB in 30.2 MIN series means he'd need 37 min to reach 11 -- a mark he's hit only 1x this series and 2x in 22 postseason games. Over 10.5 in 2 of 6 (33%) series and needed 4, 5 OREB to do it -- nearly 3x his season avg of 1.6.

Under 5.5 in 4 of 6 (67%) this series. Under 5.5 in 17 of 22 post (77%), including 10 of 11 (91%) on road. Under 5.5 in 38 of 50 (76%) road reg+post, 81 of 101 (80%) total reg+post.

Under 1.5 in 17 of 22 (77%) post, including 9 of 11 (82%) on road. Under 1.5 in 68 of 101 (67%) reg+post combined, including 34 of 50 (68%) on road. Coming off 4-7 from three in Game 6 but has only made 2+ threes in B2B playoff games 1 time all postseason, including 0 times vs same team. OKC allowing 1.7 fewer 3PT makes per game at home this postseason.

Under 2.5 in 11 of 12 (92%) home post vs 4 of 10 (40%) road. Under 2.5 in 35 of 48 (73%) home reg+post vs 21 of 43 (49%) road. Under 2.5 in all 3 home games this series (0, 2, 1) , over 2.5 in all 3 road games (4, 4, 3). IND forcing 11.7 TOV/g road post vs 16.9 home (-5.2).

Under 2.5 in 10 of 12 (83%) home post vs 4 of 10 (40%) road. Under 2.5 in 38 of 52 (73%) home reg+post vs 28 of 46 (39%) road. IND forcing 11.7 TOV/g road post vs 16.9 home (-5.2).