Timberwolves vs. Lakers Odds & Betting Predictions - February 28, 2025

The rebounds and assists have dried up a bit when playing alongside of Luka. He is actually under this line in 4/5 with Luka. The one over was against a weak Hornets team. LeBron's rebound chances are a bit skewed after 19 against an undersized Mavericks team but even then he stayed under this mark because of a lack of assists. He is averaging just 12.2 Rebound Chances and 14.4 potential assists so 26.6 chances per game when you typically convert about 50% of those. The Assist rate drops precipitously with Luka. His Assists per 100 possessions drops from 12.6 without Luka to 8.0 with him. That's a significant fall off. I'll take the under on the combo prop here as he has been doing a great job of running out in transition rather than collecting boards with Luka able to throw that full-court pass. Playable at 14.5

I'm going with an alt here. Hayes is a dunker and I'd rather grab this +$ than bet on 7 where we'd need a foul and a free throw to hit that odd number. Hayes has scored ***exactly*** 7 points just once this season. Minnesota doesn't have Gobert here, so it is a weaker interior with just Naz Reid and Luka Garza. Hayes has hit this line in 8/14 without Anthony Davis and in six of his last 10.

Naz Reid has 14, 8, 11 and 11 rebounds in 4 games w/o Gobert & Randle this season. That includes 21 and 16 rebound chances in his past 2 games. The C defense vs position rankings against the Lakers is deceiving, as they have been playing a ton of small ball & force opposing bigs off the court. That won’t be the case for Naz, as he’s a stretch big who’s naturally a PF. Naz has played around 40 mins in B2B games as the Wolves only other healthy big is Luka Garza, a defensive liability. Let’s take a look at every big that has played 30+ minutes against the Lakers in the Luka Doncic era 📊 ✅ PJ Washington - 10 Reb ✅ Nikola Jokic - 13 Reb ❌ Walker Kessler - 8 Reb ✅ Walker Kessler - 12 Reb ✅ John Collins - 11 Reb This is a small sample size, but just thinking about it intuitively, Naz Reid will be guarding a combination of Jaxson Hayes, DFS and Vanderbilt, all low volume offensive guys that puts Naz in position for weak-side boards 🔥

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