Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - May 15, 2024

Timberwolves at Nuggets

2:30 am • TNT

Minnesota Timberwolves

4-3

97 - 112

Denver Nuggets

3-4

112

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Timberwolves 4-3	+4.5	+4.5-110	o205-110	+155
Nuggets 3-4	u206	-4.5-110	u205-111	-185

Wednesday 2:30 a.m.

May 15, 2024

Ball ArenaDenver

K.Towns o19.5 Pts (Live)-120

1.5u

Under 100.5 (1H)-110

1.5u

M.Porter o22.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-125

Late add sorry

N.Jokic o8.5 Ast-115

0.87u

M.Porter To Make 3+ Threes Yes-115

0.58u

M.Porter To Make 4+ Threes Yes+216

0.25u

J.McDaniels o10.5 Pts+Ast+105

0.65u

J.McDaniels o8.5 Pts-125

0.8u

Courtside pal gives a boost to the over and +ev bet with devig odds of -147 giving value to this number

N.Jokic o1.5 Stl-160

$0.63

A.Edwards o34.5 Pts+Rebs-115

1.15u

M.Porter o20.5 Pts+Rebs-120

1.2u

DEN -174

0.57u

A.Gordon o4.5 Ast-108

0.93u

@JoeDellera

C.Braun o8.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-135

0.74u

@JoeDellera

DEN -3.5-115

0.87u

Under 206-109

J.Holiday o4.5 Pts-135

C.Braun o8.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

One other adjustment Denver has made is playing Christian Braun more minutes. His quickness and physicality has been useful on the defensive side of the ball and he can at least make Anthony Edwards’ life a little bit more difficult on that side of the ball. He also is important offensively. He is a better roll man and screener than both Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday and as a result has solidified has place as the sixth man for this Nuggets team and played 25 minutes off the bench in Game 4. When Braun has played 15+ minutes this season, he has exceeded 8.5 PRA in 81% of games. While averaging 13.8 PRA, in 20+ minutes, this jumps to a 95% hit rate on 16.3 PRA. After a strong performance in Game 4, I expect Braun to see extended run once again in Game 5. I like him to exceed 8.5 PRA.

A.Gordon o4.5 Ast+112

1.12u

The Nuggets evened up the series in Game 4 and made a few critical adjustments in that game. One of those adjustments was using Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic to bring the ball up to help free up Jamal Murray and take alleviate some of the torture that Jaden McDaniels and Nickel Alexander-Walker have subjected him to. While this also freed up Murray, it has thrown Karl-Anthony Towns into space, which is not an advantageous position for him. They have best been able to do this best when Rudy Gobert is on the floor because KAT needs to defend closer to the level since Rudy is already in a drop. In the three games Gobert has played this seres Gordon has recorded 6, 5, and 6 assists on 8, 7, and 11 potentials. The potentials were highest in Game 4 because of the adjustments I just mentioned. I like Gordon to exceed 4.5 Assists tonight and am happy to grab it at a plus number.

Over 205.5-110

K.Towns o29.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-112

$50.00

MIN +4.5-110

$55.00

Under 206-110

K.Towns o7.5 Rebs-111

1.11u

M.Porter o5.5 Rebs-115

K.Towns o28.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-118

DEN -2-150

0.67u

Bought two points

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Featured Insight
The Nuggets have allowed opponents to shoot 45% in close and late situations this season -- 6th-best in the NBA; the Timberwolves have shot 43% (368/853) in close and late situations this season -- 2nd-worst in the NBA.

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NBA Public Betting

Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nuggets are 17-23 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nuggets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 19 of Nuggets' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	38-42-2	21-19-1	17-23-1	33-37-2	5-5
Timberwolves	40-40-2	18-22-1	22-18-1	29-31-2	11-9

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nuggets	34-47-1	19-22	15-25-1	30-41-1	4-6
Timberwolves	41-40-1	18-22-1	23-18	29-32-1	12-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	7-5	N/A	N/A	53-19	4-6
Timberwolves	9-7	N/A	N/A	47-15	9-11

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 13th	@MIN	W 115-107	+4 W	O 205	DEN +142
May 11th	@MIN	W 117-90	+3.5 W	O 205.5	DEN +133
May 7th	MIN	L 80-106	-7 L	U 209.5	MIN -292
May 4th	MIN	L 99-106	-4.5 L	U 209.5	MIN -182
Apr 30th	LAL	W 108-106	-6.5 L	U 217.5	DEN -247