Saint Mary's vs. UConn Odds & Betting Predictions - March 19, 2023

Saint Mary's at UConn

10:10 pm • TNT

Saint Mary's Gaels

5-0

55 - 70

Connecticut Huskies

4-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Saint Mary's 5-0	+3.5-105	o125.5-110	+155
UConn 4-0	-3.5-115	u125.5-110	-185

Sunday 10:10 p.m.

March 19, 2023

MVP ArenaAlbany

CONN -4-108

CONN -2.5 (Live)-104

CONN +2.5 (Live)-113

CONN -1.5 (1H)-114

0.57u

SMC +4-105

2.1u

A.Sanogo u7.5 Rebs+105

DK/BetMGM: Sanogo has grabbed 8.3 boards/game over his last 16, but that was at 66.8 possessions per game. This game proejcts for 62 possessions, meaning that 8.3 becomes 7.7. However, that's against the schedule Sanogo has faced in those 16 games. St. Mary's is the 2nd best rebounding team in the nation when we look at adjusted offensive and defensive combined, in large part thanks to Saxen and Bowen. That bumps Sanogo's projection down to 6.3 for us. Love getting plus money on this under.

A.Ducas u1.5 Ast-120

BetMGM: UConn's disruptive defense makes getting assists on them incredibly difficult. They force turnovers at a slightly higher rate than average and they grab offensive boards at a higher rate than average to prevent 2nd chance assists opportunities. But the real value is in the next two of the four factors. They foul A LOT (45th highest foul rate in nation of 363 teams) meaning more possessions end at the FT line without an assist. They also are 11th in eFG% defense, meaning more shots are missed. When shots do go in, they allow the 12th lowest assist rate nationally at 41% compared to 51% average. This is also a bit of a tempo-down game as UConn is slower than the average pace. Projecting Ducas for 1.0 assist with a 72% chance of staying under in 39 minutes of playing time.

SMC +4.5-112

CONN -4.5-107

A.Ducas u1.5 Ast-122

Projection - 0.8: For more, check out BettingPros.

L.Johnson u16.5 Pts-120

He tore up the WCC (17.7 ppg), but this is UConn (17th best defense in the country). He relies on getting to the rim (141 of his 176 made baskets are in the paint), and UConn is elite at protecting the paint (roughly a 52% eFG% is well below the nat’l average). His jumper is iffy (only 2 mid range jumpers all season - that’s where you can beat UConn). And the athleticism of UConn’s wings should keep him at bay. Struggled vs VCU (12 pts on only 7 FGA in 40 mins) - expecting the same vs UConn.

CONN -3.5-110

CONN -100

**UCONN to make S16** The last of the Sweet 16 futures which i gave out on Action Island & my Twitter. Didn’t log Creighton S16, rather (+1.5) since I didn’t give it out on Twitter too. Want to make sure everything is clear for ethical sake & so you guys know I’m not trying to sneak one by. Links are under the Duke blurb

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See more NCAAB Coverage

Halfway through the Second Round, Connecticut is the second most likely No. 4 seed to make the Final Four, with 20.0% odds (breakeven moneyline +400).

Our tournament ratings give Connecticut 63.2% odds to win this game and advance to the Sweet Sixteen.

Since 2002, No. 4 seeds like Connecticut are 18-19 against No. 5 seeds like Saint Mary's in the Second Round (48.6% win rate, breakeven moneyline +106).

No props found

NCAAB Public Betting

UConn are 4-0 in their last 5 games.
UConn are 3-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of UConn' last 4 games
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of UConn' 4 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
UConn	3-1	3-1	N/A	3-1	N/A
Saint Mary's	1-3	1-2	0-1	1-3	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
UConn	0-4	0-4	N/A	0-4	N/A
Saint Mary's	4-0	3-0	1-0	4-0	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
UConn	4-0	N/A	N/A	4-0	N/A
Saint Mary's	5-0	N/A	N/A	4-0	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 17th	IONA	W 87-63	-9.5 W	O 141	CONN -450
Mar 10th	@MARQ	L 68-70	-4 L	U 148.5	MARQ -190
Mar 9th	PROV	W 73-66	-6.5 W	U 143.5	CONN -270
Mar 5th	@VILL	W 71-59	-2.5 W	U 138.5	CONN -142
Mar 2nd	DEP	W 88-59	-17.5 W	U 147.5	CONN -2171

Saint Mary's

UConn

19-49 (39%)

Field Goals

27-50 (54%)

13-19 (68%)

Free Throws

6-7 (86%)

4-14 (29%)

10-22 (45%)

Rebounds

Assists

Turnovers

Steals

Blocks

Fouls

Could not load odds

See more NCAAB Odds

MatchupOverUnder
Saint Mary's 5-0	N/A	N/A
UConn 4-0	N/A	N/A

Saint Mary's vs. UConn Odds & Betting Predictions - March 19, 2023

Saint Mary's at UConn

Saint Mary's Gaels

Connecticut Huskies

Saint Mary's at UConn Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

Saint Mary's vs. UConn Previews & Analysis

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NCAA Tourney Second Round: Odds, Picks for Every Game on Sunday

UConn vs Saint Mary's Opening Odds, More

Bracket Predictions

Tournament Trends

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Saint Mary's vs. UConn Public Betting Percentages

Saint Mary's

Public

UConn

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Saint Mary's vs. UConn Odds Comparison

Saint Mary's at UConn Team Totals