VCU vs. Saint Mary's Odds & Betting Predictions - March 17, 2023

Just a brutal matchup for a point guard reliant on volume (his eFG% of 49% is well below the national avg). SMC has the 30th best eFG% defense, and the third lowest assists per possessions allowed. Coupled with the fact they play at a snails pace (VCU implied at ~59 points, compared to their season avg of 72). Baldwin averages 21.5 PRA this season, but has not faced nearly as good of a defense as SMC.

#mattcox @threemandweave

At FD: Watkins is on a bit of a "hot streak" scoring, but it should end here. For the year, he's averaged 9.6 ppg in 23.6 minutes played, and in conference play that dips to 9.0 in 22.2 minutes played. However, over his last eight he's averaged 10.4 in 24.3 minutes played. But there's a catch...VCU has scored an average of 77.9 points in those games. Against St. Mary's, their implied team total is just 59.3! That's in no small part thanks to the massive tempo-down and incredibly strong defense from St. Mary's. What's more, St. Mary's allows a MUCH lower than average rate of points to be score on them via the 3-pointer, and Watkins' scores higher than nat'l average points from 3. Have 7.9 points projected in 24 minutes played.

Projection - 13.9: For more, check out BettingPros.

1h unders usually a great play for these early tips. Mary's plays super slow and is tipping early, will feel like 11am local. Both great D but VCU relies on TOs and Mary's handles pressure so VCU may struggle to score. ncaa-history-purdue-kansas-alabama-houston-duke-ucla-texas-uconn-9cd5ddfea2e

Given out on pod