Alabama vs. Indiana Odds & Betting Predictions - January 1, 2026

For the record I wanted to play IU -7 (today’s Action Instagram channel best bet) but it’s moved to -7.5. Going to pivot and get my exposure to Under 46.5 instead for this game. Action PRO showing some sharp money coming in on the under so I’ll ride with this.

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@sandyplashkes

Boots on Ground for Rose Bowl

Severe mismatch between Indiana’s defensive front and Alabama’s offensive line. Simpson has been pressured & sacked more times than any QB in the CFP field (156 & 30). Notable games: - 19 pressures, 3 sacks (lost to FSU 31-17) - 16 pressures, 3 sacks (beat Auburn 27-20) - 18 pressures, 3 sacks (lost to UGA 28-7) - 14 pressures, 4 sacks (beat OU 34-24) No threat of run game — Hoosiers can get after Simpson. Only team to surpass 20.5 vs. Indiana was Penn State, who did so with a strong off-tackle run game.

@Stuckey2 @_Collin1 @Breese https://myaction.app/kdJ5ez8qwZb

As someone who is a bit of a history buff when it comes to college football, I can tell you that this spread is fairly unprecedented. The last time the top-ranked team in the country faced an opponent ranked ninth or lower in a bowl game, as a favorite of less than a full touchdown, was the Sugar Bowl…in 1962. The Alabama Crimson Tide closed as a six-and-a-half point favorite over the Arkansas Razorbacks. In a defensive struggle, Alabama outlasted Arkansas 10-3, winning outright and covering the spread. The country hadn’t come to grips with the fact that Alabama was a juggernaut under Bear Bryant. This was his first of six national titles in Tuscaloosa. And moving forward, oddsmakers prohibitively priced Bryant’s teams. If you’re trying to figure out where we are in the Curt Cignetti timeline, we’re still in that “prove it” area. This explains why a deeply flawed, three-loss team, like Alabama, is catching less than a touchdown in the Rose Bowl against the mighty Indiana Hoosiers. Calling IU mighty just two years ago was a cheap punchline. This is the same Indiana outfit that has won exactly one bowl game since 1989, and that postseason exhibition was so prestigious it has changed names, I kid you not, 11 times (Copper Bowl). The Hoosiers don’t just deserve more respect in the market; they’ve earned it. Cignetti’s squad ran the table in the Big Ten, beat Oregon in Autzen, and Ohio State in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title. The IU offense is perfectly balanced, finishing first in Rushing Success Rate and second in Passing Success Rate with a Heisman-winning quarterback running the show. The Hoosier defense just held Ohio State 27 points below their season average, and enter the CFP with the most Havoc-producing defense in the sport. Pick a defensive stat, and Indiana is likely inside the top ten. That’s bad news for a one-dimensional Alabama offense. The Crimson Tide running game has fallen off a cliff, and even the return of Jam Miller couldn’t right the ship. After years of game-breaking running backs lining up in the Alabama backfield, the Tide are now 110th in rushing explosives this season. With defenses putting the Alabama running game in a box, Ty Simpson has been under fire. Alabama’s QB1 has taken ten sacks in the past three games, while feeling pressure on 41% of his dropbacks over that stretch. So why the sudden love for Alabama as a dog? They just pulled off an impressive comeback win in Norman in the first round of the College Football Playoff. They erased a 17-0 deficit, albeit with massive help from the Sooners. The OU special teams came unglued at the worst possible time, allowing a blocked punt while their Lou Groza award-winning placekicker missed a pair of field goals. And with a chance to break the game wide open before halftime, a miscommunication between John Mateer and Keontez Lewis resulted in a game-changing pick-six for Alabama’s Zabien Brown. That’s a handful of high-leverage plays breaking in favor of Alabama. Alabama pulled a rabbit out of its hat on Friday night, which is why this number is still available below the key number of seven. I wouldn’t hesitate to grab IU-6.5 because I believe we’ll look back at Indiana’s 2025 and wonder why oddsmakers were so slow to adapt to the fact that Indiana isn’t a party crasher; they’re a juggernaut.