49ers vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 10, 2023

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Boyd

Bet No. 2 in our contest. Go sign up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

Most Common Week 1 Picks Among Last Year’s Top 25 in Circa Millions & Westgate SuperContest: #1: Browns +22 (26-4 count) #2: Buccaneers +20 (21-1) #3: Steelers +14 (17-3) #4: Titans +12 (13-1) T5: Colts +9 (12-3) T5: Raiders +9 (11-2)

Bet at Bet365. Would play down to +225. For full analysis, watch The Touchdown Show at 11:30am ET on Sunday.

Via Brian vs the Books

EXECUTIVE DECISION

MGM

FD

TAN pod: Rah Rah Tomlin vs Shanny letdown spot Tomlin 14-3-3 ATS as a home dog 7 or less, Shanny 1-5 ATS week 1 Pitt D w/ Watt best unit on field. Nasty pass rush vs faltering OL and I don’t trust Purdy in a big test like this.

Projection: +1.4. Tomlin is 15-4-3 ATS as home dog. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

Purdy is not him, Steelers win the AFC North

Pickens was 6/10 on this line last season when Pickett threw at least 20 passes. He’s the deep threat on this team (15.6 aDOT lead the Steelers last season). No more Claypool - Pickens role is more clearly defined. I expect Ward, who predominantly played LCB last season and didn’t travel, to match up more with Diontae Johnson. No Bosa (in all likelihood) and I do expect the Steelers to be playing from behind. Play to o37.5.

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Available at FanDuel. You are paying a price to get a push on +3 with the -115, but I think that's still a worthwhile tradeoff over taking the moneyline at +128. The Steelers' offense seemed to make a scheme change during their Week 9 bye last year, and it led to a nice up-tick in their offensive efficiency. Specifically, they made gains on the ground and in their late-down success rate, though their early-down passing efficiency was a bit better, as well. They have a tough opponent, but we still haven't seen Brock Purdy in the preseason yet as he recovers from elbow surgery, so there is some uncertainty on the other side. Although my model projects the 49ers to have the league's best defense this year, the Steelers also rank inside the top five there after how they played once TJ Watt returned from injury. With the Steelers at home, I agree with the model that taking the three points is the right way to play this.

First bet we loved on @TheFavoritesPodcast. FD quickslip https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.380305751&selectionId[0]=50209&shareBetId=10023_-443033149