Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - September 18, 2023

Dolphins at Patriots

12:20 am • NBC

Miami Dolphins

0-0-1

24 - 17

New England Patriots

1-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dolphins 0-0-1	-2.5-110	o46.5-110	-126
Patriots 1-0	+2.5-110	u46.5-110	+108

Monday 12:20 a.m.

September 18, 2023

Gillette StadiumFoxborough

NE +700 (Live)

0.16u

Hedge

Under 46.5-110

H.Henry Anytime TD Scorer+320

0.8u

D.Parker Anytime TD Scorer+440

0.25u

D.Smythe Anytime TD Scorer+360

0.25u

MIA -118

0.21u

R.Stevenson o12.5 Rush Att-110

Goes hand in hand with my analysis on the Pats leg of the SGP, I just don’t see the Pats wanting to air it out too much - especially with Trent Brown out. Rhamondre only 12 totes last week against an elite defensive line. Dolphins run defense was gashed last week (and all of last season).

Under 22.5 (1H)+100

$100.00

MIA -1.5-107

Over 46-110

0.3u

Small snf sweat. Don’t chase if you’re down. It’s a long year and it’s September 17th

T.Hill u81.5 Rec Yds-115

1.74u

Either I’m a genius or I’m a dumbass

R.Stevenson o78.5 Rush + Rec Yds-114

NE +2.5-105

2.1u

NE +3-120

$120.00

Added .2U

R.Stevenson Anytime TD Scorer+105

1.05u

First TD of the season today

Under 46.5-113

0.88u

NE +3-125

@The_Oddsmaker Suggests buying the 3 to -125

MIA -2.5-115

0.87u

NE +3-117

1.17u

NE +2.5-105

D.Smythe Anytime TD Scorer+380

0.5u

This one's for @charliedisturco and @TheTDShow

J.Smith-Schuster u16.5 Longest Reception-125

NE +3-105

1.05u

NE +3-124

1.24u

Under 46-110

0.5u

NE +2.5-105

1.58u

NE +2.5-105

$1.00

Under 46.5-110

0.91u

NE +2.5-102

J.Smith-Schuster u16.5 Longest Reception-125

In week 1, JuJu was tied for third in WR routes run on the Pats, and sixth overall in aDOT (4.3 yards, with all seven of his targets coming within 10 yards of the LOS. With rumblings coming from Pats camp that the coaches are worried he has no burst, and with DeVante Parker and/or Jalen Raegor potentially poaching some snaps, I love this under. Jones was checking down like crazy throughout week 1, and the run game for NE should be much more prominent against a bad Dolphins rush defense. Ok at u15.5 for a partial unit.

NE +2.5-102

J.Waddle o61.5 Rec Yds-115

0.87u

J.Waddle o4.5 Recs+115

J.Holland o6.5 Tackles + Ast+114

2.28u

Under 46.5-110

0.91u

R.Stevenson o23.5 Rec Yds-110

1.1u

J.Waddle Anytime TD Scorer+160

Bet at Caesars. Scored in 3/4 career games vs Patriots and all 14 of his career TD have been thrown from Tua.

New England D Anytime TD Scorer+650

0.5u

Bet at DraftKings. Make sure if you tail, yours includes special teams (D/ST). Patriots led NFL with 7 defensive TD. This is an ideal matchup for chaos.

H.Henry Anytime TD Scorer+340

1.7u

Bet at PointsBet. Would play down to +300. Dolphins vs TE is an ideal matchup. Wouldnt be mad at the Gesicki revenge spot bet either.

Under 46.5-110

0.91u

Under 46.5-110

1.82u

Fading the steam - Patriots watch tape

T.Hill Anytime TD Scorer+124

1.24u

T.Tagovailoa o1.5 Pass TDs-130

R.Stevenson Anytime TD Scorer-105

0.95u

E.Elliott Anytime TD Scorer+375

Barstool

NE +3-110

1.1u

NE +3-110

NE +3-115

1.1u

Big Balls Bet of the Week

NE +3-110

0.5u

Bet365 12:17 Friday.

NE +3-110

The Big Balls Bet of the Week on @TheFavoritesPodcast!

MIA -2.5-118

MIA -3-105

NE +3-110

1.1u

#LuckRankings

Under 47.5-112

0.89u

Available at FanDuel. I was on the under for the Dolphins' game in Week 1, and it didn't go well! But this just feels like a very lofty number, especially when we can hit on a key number of 47. That Chargers/Dolphins game was played indoors while this one will be outside with current wind projections of 5 miles per hour. That could change, but even assuming just that level of wind, my model still suggests the under. New England's offense was fine enough against the Eagles, but they certainly didn't dramatically alter expectations. I have more faith in Bill Belichick cooking up a defensive scheme to prevent a shootout than I do Brandon Staley, and that plays a role here, too. It's just too high of a number for two teams with solid defenses and only one explosive offense.

Featured Insight
Patriots QBs have a 113.9 passer rating when scrambling since Week 14 of the 2022 Season -- second-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed a passer rating of 132.3 when the opposing QB was scrambling since Week 14 of the 2022 Season -- worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
Dolphins TEs have 31.8 receiving yards per game since Week 14 of the 2022 Season -- fourth-worst in NFL. The Patriots have averaged 30.5 receiving yards per game allowed to TEs since Week 14 of the 2022 Season -- fifth-best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Patriots are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Patriots are 2-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Patriots are 4-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Patriots' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Patriots' 8 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Patriots	7-9-1	3-4-1	4-4	N/A	7-9-1
Dolphins	7-10	3-5	4-5	4-5	3-5

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Patriots	11-6	7-1	3-5	N/A	11-6
Dolphins	8-9	6-2	2-7	5-4	3-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Patriots	4-13	N/A	N/A	N/A	4-13
Dolphins	8-9	N/A	N/A	6-3	2-6

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 10th	PHI	L 20-25	+3.5 L	O 44	PHI +148
Aug 26th	@TEN	L 7-23	+2.5 L	U 38	TEN +120
Aug 20th	@GB	W 21-17	+2.5 W	O 37.5	NE +120
Aug 10th	HOU	L 9-20	+3 L	U 37.5	HOU +145
Jan 8th	@BUF	L 23-35	+8.5 L	O 44	BUF +320

Dolphins

Total

Patriots

389

Total Yards

288

Total Plays

6.4

Yards Per Play

4.1

Dolphins

Passing

Patriots

249

YDS

231

21/30

Comps/Atts

31/42

7.871

YPA

4.348

1/1

TDs/INTs

1/1

1/5

Sacks/Yards

4/31

Dolphins

Rushing

Patriots

145

Rush Yards

Attempts

4.833

YPC

3.52

TDs

Dolphins

Turnovers

Patriots

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Dolphins

Efficiency

Patriots

2/3 66.67%

Redzone

2/2 100%

4/10 0%

3rd Down

7/15 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

1/2 0%

Dolphins

First Downs

Patriots

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Dolphins

Misc

Patriots

6/46

Penalties/Yards

5/45

30:19

Possession

29:41

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MatchupOverUnder
Dolphins 0-0-1	o23.5-112	u23.5-107
Patriots 1-0	o22.5-120	u22.5-110

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - September 18, 2023

Dolphins at Patriots

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

Dolphins at Patriots Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

PRO Insights

Dolphins

Patriots

Dolphins vs. Patriots Previews & Analysis

McMurphy's Law: Looking Ahead to CFB Week 5

NFL Luck Rankings: Saints-Panthers Fits Threshold

Our Best Bets for Dolphins vs. Patriots

Raybon's Bet for Dolphins vs. Patriots Tonight

Dolphins vs. Patriots Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Dolphins vs. Patriots Public Betting Percentages

Dolphins

Public

Patriots

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds Comparison

Dolphins at Patriots Team Totals