Falcons vs. Colts Odds & Betting Predictions - November 9, 2025

Here we gooooo

Lil Sun Morn TD Sweat!

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Jones is having an MVP-type season on his new team, but last week was his first real flop, throwing 3 picks in a 27-20 loss to the Steelers. I expect him to bounce back here, which should let the Colts lean more on Jonathan Taylor and the run game, helping this prop. The Falcons blitz at the highest rate in the league (46%), and Jones’ completion rate drops from 76% against 4 or fewer rushers to 55% against the blitz, so we should see more incompletions from him here. The Falcons have also allowed the fewest completions per game (16.5) and have yet to allow a QB to complete 21+ passes this season. This will be just Jones’ 3rd outdoor game of the year, and with this one being played in Germany where it should be fairly chilly, his expected completion rate should dip a bit compared to if this were played in a dome environment in Indy or Atlanta. I’m projecting him closer to 20.4 completions with around a 59% chance to stay under 21.5. People hate betting unders because they feel like there’s nothing to root for. That’s not really true. Here, we’re rooting for Jonathan Taylor to have a big game on the ground, Jones scrambles, quick TD drives, and long, clock-killing possessions from Atlanta. The people who think this is just about sitting there puckered up every time Jones drops back rooting for an incompletion are making it miserable on themselves lol. Early completions are fine too if they help the Colts build a lead and lean on the run later.

The Colts were the talk of the league this week after trading for Sauce Gardner, so it's only appropriate that we start Sunday morning with the Colts too. Gardner is a huge pickup for this team. Adding him next to nickel back Kenny Moore and, once he's healthy, Charvarius Ward should give Indy one of the league's best trio of corners. It's also just in time for Sauce to cover Drake London as much as possible this week. Don't worry too much about the Colts loss to Pittsburgh last week. Indianapolis turned it over six times but otherwise moved the ball well as usual, and the Colts finished +10% in net Success Rate, typically a good indicator that the team was better. Football is hard, and the ball is oblong. It happens. The Colts defense is probably a bit overrated but still better than this inconsistent Falcons offense, which doesn't seem to have many answers when it can't dictate things. Everyone knows about Atlanta's star weapons on offense, but the line has been a hidden strength in recent years. But now both starting guards are a question for Berlin, and the Falcons are already without last year's C and RT. This line is struggling. By contrast, the Colts have had arguably the best offensive line in the league this season. The line was embarrassed last week by Pittsburgh, but that should mean a focused, spirited effort to rebound against the Falcons. Atlanta's defense feels overrated, and it's certainly not been good against the run, just 24th in DVOA. The Falcons built their defense around small, speedy pass rushers, and that works in some matchups but it's going to be a problem against this Colts rushing attack. The Colts also have a big special teams edge, and this is a significant coaching mismatch. Shane Steichen is the Coach of the Year favorite, pulling all the right levers for Indy, while Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson are increasingly getting a lot of questions. Steichen is 12-7 ATS as a favorite (63%), while Morris is 44% ATS as an underdog. Morris is also 44% ATS against teams over .500, while Daniel Jones is 20-12 ATS (63%) against teams below .500 like Atlanta. When in doubt, just back the favorite in these international games. Removing Jaguars games since they play overseas so often, the favorite in all other international games is 27-13 ATS (68%). When the total is at least 44, that improves to 18-6 ATS (75%), and the underdog hadn't won in the last 20 meetings until the Chargers beat the Chiefs in Brazil in this year's opener. Per Evan Abrams, teams coming off a loss as a favorite before an international game like the Colts are 15-9 ATS (63%); they're 12-5 ATS when both are in that spot. Play Colts -6.5 below the key number of seven, and if you like, this is a nice setup for a Sunday teaser. I like Seattle as a teaser pairing, or the Lions or Bills look like good options. The Colts have scored at least 29 points in all seven wins this season, averaging 35.7 PPG in wins with at least 38 in over half. Place a portion of your bet on Indianapolis team total over 37.5 points at +440 (DraftKings) in case the Colts hang a crooked number on Atlanta in Berlin.

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Early RG projections are showing a 13% edge on the under for this international game. I don’t have a strong sense of whether this 244.5 line will increase or decrease as we get closer to kickoff, so I’ll just lock it in now.

Do have some concern about Falcons OL injuries but have to play this number 🎃