Steelers vs. Jets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 7, 2025

Projection: 40.1. For more, check out the Fantasy Life game models.

Can only do 3U on action got it at -120

Even through injuries and inconsistent workloads, Breece Hall has established himself as one of the league’s premier pass-catching backs. He’s averaged 4.8 targets per game in his career, 4th-most among RBs since entering the league, and caught 57 of 76 targets last season, clearing 2.5 receptions in 10 of 16 games. Additionally, usage was promising with Hall being targeted on 14% of his team receptions last year, the 4th-highest rate in his position per FantasyPoints. Entering Week 1’s matchup only strengthens the case. With Alijah Vera-Tucker out and a rookie at right tackle, T.J. Watt and the Steelers’ front should force constant pressure. Justin Fields historically funnels targets to his backs when hurried, his 19.2% RB target rate ranked 5th among QBs last season, and new OC Tanner Engstrand comes from Detroit, where Lions RBs finished top-3 in designed targets (33), total targets (101), and led the league in receiving yards (845) in 2024. Add in Garrett Wilson’s likely shadow matchup with Joey Porter Jr. and a thin WR depth chart behind him, and Hall is positioned as the offense’s most reliable underneath outlet. The line of 2.5 receptions undersells both his career baseline and the specific game environment. I'm expecting it to be very gross and ugly today and the gameplan being quick-hitting throws to move the chains. Normally last season, we'd have to worry about Davante Adams taking usage, but now on the Rams, this should only better the first-read. Combining Fields’ checkdown habits, Engstrand’s RB-friendly scheme, and a compromised O-line, Hall likely has the easiest path to see targets on his team today. #PlayerProps @everyone

@RoyalsProps tail

Revenge day for the Jets

Round robin on X

Via @ChrisRaybon

Justin Fields under 46.5 rush yds (-111 DK) Last year with PIT averaged 38.5 in his six starts, but the Jets do plan on leaning into his strengths more. Even with that said, I still like the under thanks to the opponent and situation PIT allowed the fewest scrambles last year thanks to the highest rate of single-high safety use in the league, keeping an extra man in the box Scrambles tend to result in higher rush yds/att than designed runs and Fields has averaged 3.86 yards per carry MORE on scrambles than designed runs in his career PIT has also spent a bit this offseason on defense, and could be even better than in years past Fields could also see a kneel down or two if the Jets were to win (less than a FG underdog), which is a shorter dog than the average Fields start, meaning a slightly higher chance of kneeldowns than average for him. And with a higher chance of leading than the average Fields start, a more run-oriented script with fewer dropbacks may be in order -- further limiting scrambles in favor of designed runs (or just more RB runs). Projecting just north of 40 yards and would play this even at 45.5

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/TqfB5ck7pWb

This game is chock full of delicious narratives with a weird double revenge spot for Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields, but I'm asking a different question: how is either of these teams going to score? Rodgers didn't play a snap in the preseason. That's probably not shocking for a quarterback in his 40s with plenty of injury history, but it also means Rodgers has yet to play a real down of football with any of his new Steelers teammates. It means we have no idea how Rodgers looks in an Arthur Smith offense that doesn't suit his strengths, nor if he has any chemistry with DK Metcalf or rhythm with his new young offensive line. There's simply no proof of concept with this Rodgers offense yet, and the Jets defense is still incredibly talented and should benefit from a fresh start under Aaron Glenn. It's even uglier the other direction. The Jets didn't have much offense heading into the season as it was, and now they just lost stud G Alijah Vera-Tucker for the year on the eve of the season. That's a tough hit losing your best lineman for what might have been the strength of the offense, especially against this fearsome Steelers defensive front as good as any in the league. It remains to be seen what new Jets OC Tanner Engstrand's offense looks like. Maybe New York can run the ball some on Pittsburgh — but a heavy run script means a faster clock, and that suits the under too. Justin Fields is not a serious NFL quarterback at this point, and Pittsburgh's defense just spent an entire year practicing him and knows exactly how to limit his few strengths. Where do the points come from? Bettors are already hitting the under, with this line dropping from 39.5 at open to 38.5, but that's not a particularly valuable key number and anything above 37 should be fine. Mike Tomlin road unders early in the season have been a wagon. In the first 10 games of the season, Tomlin road unders are 65% for his career, and that includes an obscene 40-11-1 since just 2014 — 78% to the under, by almost five points a game! We started Week 1 last season with a Tomlin road under, so let's get right back on the horse. Sometimes the obvious pick is also the good one. Care for a little Week 1 mineshaft? Under 34.5 runs at +156, with under 30.5 at +255 (both at bet365). I'll play another direction. Doesn't this just feel like one of those games the Steelers lose in Week 1 — Rodgers too, for that matter? If this one stays below 38.5 it should be close and give the Jets a chance. I'll place a portion of my bet parlaying the under 38.5 with a Jets moneyline at +325 (DraftKings).

Great start to our NFL season, here’s an early one for y’all

Absolute criminal line on DK

@ChrisRaybon Favorite Total https://myaction.app/naCzRpNcoWb

Tailing @ChrisRaybon

✅Tomlin road unders 58-31-1 (65%) since 2014 ✅Glenn 2nd-highest blitz%, Rodgers bottom-5 YPA/aDOT vs blitz ✅NYJ self-stated offensive goal “8 yard passes”