Steelers vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2025

Steelers at Patriots

5:00 pm • CBS

Pittsburgh Steelers

3-1

21 - 14

New England Patriots

2-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Steelers 3-1	+1.5	-1.5-110	o44.5-106	-112
Patriots 2-2	u43.5	+1.5-114	u44.5-114	-104

Sunday 5:00 p.m.

September 21, 2025

Gillette StadiumFoxborough

NE +1.5-110

1.1u

PIT -115

Over 44.5+100

Projection: 47.7. For more, check out the Fantasy Life game model.

NE +1.5-110

1.1u

Projection: -0.3. For more, check out the Fantasy Life game model.

C.Boswell o1.5 FGs Made-115

J.Warren o21.5 Rec Yds-120

0.5u

R.Stevenson First Touchdown Scorer Yes+900

0.5u

NE +1.5-111

1.67u

R.Stevenson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+195

1.5u

T.Henderson u5.5 Rush Att+112

S.Diggs o4.5 Recs+111

NE +1.5-105

1.05u

J.Smith u15.5 Longest Reception-120

0.6u

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

J.Smith u15.5 Longest Reception-120

0.6u

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

J.Smith u15.5 Longest Reception-120

0.6u

Proj closer to 13.5

NE +1.5-105

Rodgers should eat a pipe bomb for breakfast

T.Henderson u6.5 Rush Att-125

1.25u

T.Henderson o29.5 Rec Yds+600

0.25u

Taken 2 days ago, do not take at current odds

T.Henderson 40+ Receiving Yards Yes+1200

0.1u

Taken 2 days ago, do not take at current odds

T.Henderson o19.5 Rec Yds+265

0.25u

Taken 2 days ago, do not take at current odds

NE +1.5-105

1.05u

@BKPicks https://myaction.app/n9oxUJkKLWb

J.Warren o12.5 Rush Att-130

There may be some value on the rush attempts prop for Jaylen Warren. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 17.67 rush attempts, and the oddsmakers are implying 14.17. The model believes there is a 74% chance he records at least 12.5 rush attempts, so there is value on the over at -130. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=inf8qq%22%3EEV Analytics!

T.Henderson u6.5 Rush Att+110

THE BLITZ is forecasting 5.29 rush attempts for TreVeyon Henderson compared to 7.43 rush attempts implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 69% of the time, resulting in a 36% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $37.31. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

T.Henderson u2.5 Recs+145

There is a value opportunity on TreVeyon Henderson's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 2.31 receptions, while sportsbooks implies 3.59. The model believes there is a 62% chance he records fewer than 2.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +145. (NOTE: This line is available at Hard Rock.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

C.Austin o35.5 Rec Yds-115

1.15u

Fanatics

T.Henderson o8.5 Rec Yds-110

0.91u

PIT -1.5-110

Plant Your Flag Early Pick @KendraMiddleton_ https://myaction.app/4C2HYTivIWb

NE +1-110

Under 44.5-107

0.93u

NE +1-110

1.1u

NE -102

Under 43.5-110

0.91u

Week 3 Lookahead @wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/wBCiOGTOBWb

Under 43-105

1.43u

It's Mike Tomlin vs Mike Vrabel — which way do you think the line will go? This is defense all the way down with Tomlin and Vrabel, and I trust both defenses far more than either offense. I had the Patriots inside my top 10 before the season started and the Steelers top two. Neither defense was great in Week 1, but it'll take more than one game to give up on all the talent on both rosters, especially against these subpar offenses. Trends will push this one under. Tomlin unders between 40 and 49 the first seven Pittsburgh games are 58-24-1 (71%), and Tomlin road unders the first half of the season are 56-31-1 (64%). Vrabel has also trended uneder with totals below 44 at 58% to the under. As much as anything else, this is a value grab to stay ahead of the number. We can play under 43 at bet365, and I'm already seeing this as low as 40.5 at one major book. Every number from 40 to 44 is a key number for totals, so get ahead of things with an early under.

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NFL Public Betting

Patriots are 2-2 in their last 5 games.
Patriots are 2-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Patriots are 1-0 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Patriots' last 4 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Patriots' 3 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Patriots	2-2	1-2	1-0	1-1	1-1
Steelers	2-2	0-1	1-1	1-2	1-0

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Patriots	2-2	1-2	1-0	1-1	1-1
Steelers	3-1	1-0	1-1	2-1	1-0

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Patriots	2-2	N/A	N/A	1-1	1-1
Steelers	3-1	N/A	N/A	2-1	1-0

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 14th	@MIA	W 33-27	+2.5 W	O 43.5	NE +110
Sep 7th	LV	L 13-20	-2.5 L	U 44.5	LV -148
Aug 22nd	@NYG	L 10-42	+4.5 L	O 36.5	NYG +185
Aug 16th	@MIN	W 20-12	+1.5 W	U 37	NE +105
Aug 8th	WAS	W 48-18	-6.5 W	O 37.5	NE -290

Skylar Thompson
QB
Thompson is questionable with hamstring
Questionable

Jaylen Warren
RB
Warren is out with knee
Out

Charles Woods
CB
Woods is questionable with concussion
Questionable

See more NFL Injuries

Steelers

Total

Patriots

203

Total Yards

369

Total Plays

4.1

Yards Per Play

5.2

Steelers

Passing

Patriots

139

YDS

268

16/23

Comps/Atts

28/37

6.043

YPA

5.952

2/1

TDs/INTs

2/1

0/0

Sacks/Yards

5/18

Steelers

Rushing

Patriots

Rush Yards

119

Attempts

2.462

YPC

4.103

TDs

Steelers

Turnovers

Patriots

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Steelers

Efficiency

Patriots

3/3 100%

Redzone

2/4 50%

4/9 0%

3rd Down

6/13 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

4/5 0%

Steelers

First Downs

Patriots

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Steelers

Misc

Patriots

8/59

Penalties/Yards

7/54

26:40

Possession

33:20

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MatchupOverUnder
Steelers 3-1	o22.5-123	u22.5-104
Patriots 2-2	o21.5-116	u21.5-111

Steelers vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2025

Steelers at Patriots

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Steelers

Public

Patriots

Bets%

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Over/Under History

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Last 5 Matchups

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Patriots Injuries

Steelers vs. Patriots Odds Comparison

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