Texans vs. Vikings Odds & Betting Predictions - September 22, 2024

🔑 Vikings ML +114 (DraftKings) 2u The Vikings are legit and Darnold might be living up to his hype. Home field will be huge in this game and I think pushes the Vikings over the edge. Amazing value here and all the sharp money coming in on MIN.

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Texans’ offense has shown promise under C.J. Stroud, ranking 11th in points per game at 24 and 9th in total yards per game at over 360. While they’ve struggled a bit on third down, converting just 4-14 last week, their ground game and Stroud’s efficiency with a 69% completion rate create a dynamic threat. Stroud's mistake-free football, with no interceptions yet, and a versatile rushing attack allow Houston to keep pressure on defenses, especially in maintaining fresh legs for the ground game. The key to Houston’s scoring potential is their ability to stay aggressive, despite some discipline issues with penalties. Their red zone struggles should see some improvement with the rhythm the offense is developing. Defensively, Houston’s pass rush has been among the best in the NFL, ranking 2nd with a 14% sack rate, but their vulnerability in the secondary was evident against Indianapolis, and Minnesota’s deep threats pose a serious challenge. Houston is holding teams to 20 points per game but will be tested by the Vikings' explosive offense, especially in limiting plays downfield, where they have struggled. Minnesota’s offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging 25.5 points per game (8th in the league) and boasting an impressive 6.8 yards per play. Sam Darnold has excelled in the pocket, ranked 2nd in completion depth, and with key weapons like Justin Jefferson, the Vikings have the tools to exploit Houston’s secondary. Even if Jefferson’s status is uncertain, the versatility of their ground game, with Ty Chandler and Aaron Jones averaging six yards per carry, will keep the Texans' defense honest. On defense, Minnesota is stout, allowing just 11.5 points per game, good for 3rd in the NFL, but they’ve shown some cracks, particularly last week when the 49ers averaged nearly six yards per play. The Vikings' pass defense has been solid, limiting big plays, but they will be tested by Houston’s balanced attack and effective play-action passing game. Minnesota's 3rd down defense (holding opponents to a 20% conversion rate last week) will need to replicate that effort to slow down Houston.

@TheBMatt

Line locked on Thursday when originally took it.

@SimonHunterNFL

Spicy pick for today’s TD show (0.25u)

#ProSystem … early season over after under Overall: 79-37-0,68% (ROI:33%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

TOUCHDOWN SHOW BEST BET NO.2. WATCH POWER HOUR AT 11AM ET FOR FULL ANALYSIS.

CJ Stroud who?

- Texans run D is elite. They allow the 2nd fewest RB rush yards (37.5), the lowest YPC (2.27). They were 2nd in EPA and 1st in SR against the run last year as well. - Houston is also just a very good team. Close spread here, but wouldn't be surprised to see Houston pull ahead in this one, just think they are a tier above Minnesota although the Vikings have looked good. - Chandler had the hot hand last week, and Jones got hurt for a bit. Jones was a full practice yesterday, and with Jones line being 45.5, I just think Jones is still ahead of Chandler more than both players Vegas lines imply. - Think this is a great spot for a ton of Vikings pass volume, and don't expect the run game to be efficient for Minnesota.

-The Vikings have played the Texans every 4 years since 2004, AND WON the game AND COVERED the spread all 5 times, regardless of if they were favorites or underdogs -Darnold’s last game vs the Texans resulted in 304 passing yards, 0 interceptions AND 2 rushing touchdowns. Yes you read that correctly, Sam Darnold rushed for 2 touchdowns and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran another one in this weekend

Week 3 QB INT Picks. Article coming shortly.

BIG BALLS BET OF THE WEEK, presented by Tommy John

Undefeated vs undefeated - dogs 13-9 ATS; home teams 14-8 ATS. L20 years home undefeated team 68-52-4 ATS. Big balls bet of the week per @TheFavoritesPodcast

This game really should suit Diggs. He’s primarily running routes from the slot (62%). Only 9 catches through 2 games (6 targets in each). He’s been the quick-hitter low aDOT guy (5.4, compared to Nico 13.6 and Tank 14.4). The Vikings are blitz heavy - the 6th highest rate, and garnering pressure at the 2nd highest rate. Blitzing and pressure dating back to last season lowers Stroud’s aDOT and time to throw lessen (as one would expect). The Vikings allowing an avg aDOT of 6.4 yards (8th lowest) after 7.3 last season (7th lowest). Deebo and WanDale - the two lower aDOT options amongst WR on their teams, had 8 and 6 catches in the Vikings two games (both with double digit targets). Mixon is banged up, even if he plays, it’s easy to see the Texans going pass-heavy. Diggs has run a route on 95%+ of Stroud’s dropbacks. I have him closer to 8 targets in this one. And yeah, he should be pumped to be playing back in Minnesota for the first time.

15% boost