Heat vs. 76ers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 17, 2024

#Tailing @PropBomb

Scary, sure, and the three-point bump is warranted, factoring in the hype around 'Playoff Jimmy.' however, I believe this bet is more about the 76ers' new and improved defensive philosophy under Coach Nick Nurse than anything else. For starters, going back to his Raptors days, Nurse is one of the best coaches in game planning against #1 options. He’s said in interviews he knows Jimmy’s driving/posting powers up the Heat’s offense and will do whatever he can to scheme against him with traps and switches to make every shot uncomfortable. Unlike the last time they met in the playoffs, the 76ers can throw size at Jimmy with Tobias/Batum in coverage and use Embiid as a roamer for an extra layer of rim protection. Since the big man returned, PHI has permitted the 2nd fewest points in the paint. with Joel Embiid active, the 76ers defend ball-handling drivers the best in the the league. Ultimately, I see this more of a Tyler Herro or bust spot than Jimmy, and I don’t expect to see a massive usage role chance like books and the public are expecting. Plus, on the road, there’s a chance he is less likely to get the whistle than if he were at home. #PlayerProps

@mariacmarino

When the Heat played without a traditional PG this season (no Lowry or Rozier), Butler averaged 6.2 assists per 36 minutes (+1 off his average). And with Bam locked on Embiid, this should be a plus rebounding game spot for Butler as well. A lot of noise about Butler/the Heat and them “not caring about the regular season.” Regardless if it’s true or not, this is a massive game (obviously). Winner avoids Boston and gets the perceived better matchup vs the Knicks. Butler has shown that he can flip the switch come playoff time, and I see no reason to think he can’t do it again tonight.

@JayMoneyIsMoney23

- Under in 9 of last 10 games vs Miami - Avg 22.1 ppg against Bam in his career - Has not had a 30 point game in his last 3 seasons against Bam

Since the start of 2020-2021 season, Joel Embiid has played the Heat 13 times. 9 regular season games and 4 playoff games. He scored 31 or more points in only 2 of those games (2-11). Also, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo didn’t play in either of those games (Jan 14, 2021 & Jan 15, 2022).

Courtside pal gives a boost to his rebounds and +ev bet with devig odds of -197 giving value to this number

... playoff favs of 4 or more and opp made playoffs last year Overall: 189-127-5,60% (ROI:16%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

Good at 4.5, grabbed at the open