Pistons vs. Magic Odds & Betting Predictions - April 28, 2026

Great time to buy low on Suggs, who hasn’t cleared this in the first three games of the series and has just 11 assists total (3.67 per game). But the underlying passing metrics tell a very different story. I have him closer to 18.6 expected assists over those three games. His pass rate has actually ticked up slightly, but his teammates have let him down. They’ve passed up shots they’d normally take and are shooting an abysmal 37% on all attempts following a Suggs pass (this includes attempts that didn’t result in a potential assist). Anthony Black and Desmond Bane have been the biggest culprits. Bane is somehow 0/6, including 0/5 from three, off Suggs passes. In Game 2 alone, Suggs generated two open Bane threes in the same possession and got nothing for it. So while the box score says his assist rate has been down, he’s due for pretty significant positive regression, and hopefully it starts tonight. I’m projecting him closer to 5.3 assists with around a 61% chance to clear 4.5.

Kinda square

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I was waiting for the 3.5 (-110 or better) to pop and sure enough, we got it. This is a classic zig-zag overreaction from the market. There was nothing from Game 3 to indicate that what Orlando did was a fluke. They didn’t shoot lights out, the Pistons didn’t have a distorted amount of turnovers, none of those telltale signs that immediate regression to the mean is coming. I think this line should be Magic +1. If the line stayed put at 2.5, I would give the Pistons the respect of the bounce back, but I simply have to take a stand on a number that is mis-priced for no other reason than playoff mythology. Fun stat per @HPBasketball on @bucketsactionpodcast #1 seeds down 2-1 in round 1 are just 3-5 SU in game 4.

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#EV 9.38% Pinny -147 BM -145

#EV 4.05% pinny -122 BM -116 FD -130 BO -120