Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Predictions - January 17, 2023

tom

At BetRivers: Gave out on Green Dot Daily

Bovada

FanDuel

Luck Rankings https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.357801685&selectionId[0]=50190&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

SuperBook

Tailing @nick_giffen (at BetRivers)

FanDuel. Playable up to o255.5. He’s over this line in 8/10, with one miss being the drubbing they laid on the Colts, and the other last week vs WSH. I’m discounting that last game, and expect the offense to be more prepared today. Bucs run defense has resembled prior years of late - they rank 7th in DVOA since week 10 (per Football Outsiders) and 28th in pass defense. We’ve seen Mike McCarthy/Kellen Moore abandon the run quickly in prior matchups vs TB. And the run game didn’t look great the last few weeks to begin with.

Circa

#69WithDale

Tailing @nick_giffen here

Wynn

DK: Full write up https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/ezekiel-elliott-player-props-expert-pick-for-cowboys-vs-buccaneers?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=propbomb

Didn't think I'd be backing the Bucs again this season but here we are 🤮. Breakdown: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cowboys-vs-bucs-pick-expert-nfc-wild-card-matchup?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=chrisraybon

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

#chrisraybon @chrisraybon Sean koerner lean - will take if it gets to +3

BetMGM: meant to post OVER. Gave out on Green Dot Daily

Freebet - FD

Bet at FanDuel. Has scored a TD in 3 straight playoff games and will likely need to take initiative in 2H when Cowboys are inevitably trailing.

FanDuel QuickSlip: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId[0]=42.358231185&selectionId[0]=43845463&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Via @wheatonbrando

Bucs highest early down pass frequency in NFL. Brady set pass attempts record. Over this number in 6 straight starts (not counting wk18 obv) and 11 of last 13 (85%), avg 47.1 that stretch. Dallas secondary is shambles. Either Brady throws it from behind or passes to build a lead. One of my fav props of the weekend. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-wild-card-picks-bets-on-spreads-totals-player-props-for-all-6-games?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

Boyd

@nick_giffen

At BetMGM: Analysis on @TheTDShow on Sunday

Exec Decision

Gilles Gallant Best Bet

@millmanc #ChadMillman

@nick_giffen

FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.357801685&selectionId[0]=50190&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

need 3

Given the narrative around the Cowboys, I'm betting this gets to 2.5 before gameday. And at a field goal, I do think the Bucs are a value. My two models have the Cowboys favored by 1.62 and 0.23 points, the 1.62 being in the model that has performed better this year. The reason I'm willing to bet it even with the better model showing less value is that the other one has been high on the Cowboys all year. It has also, though, bought into positive regression for the Bucs' offense under the assumption they wouldn't remain as horrible as they've been on late downs. They're still in just the 36th percentile in late-down success rate (the Cowboys are in the 96th), but there has been some positive upward movement for the Bucs more recently. I'm showing value, and I think there are good odds this one comes off of three, so I'll take it now and see how things play out.

At Caesars: #LuckRankings over ... already moved from 44.5 to 45.5 at DK/FD and our luck rankings show there's value on the over here. Wouldn't bet at 45.5 though