Giants vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Predictions - September 7, 2025

Week 1 Divisional Underdogs 📈 48-11-2 (81.36%) / 53.5% ROI Week 1 Division / Playoff vs Non-Off 📈 44-15 (74.58%) / 42.37% ROI Week 1 Non-Playoff with Spread > 5 📈 22-8 (73.33%) / 40% ROI Russell Wilson as a dog more than 3 📈 25-8-1 (75.76%) / 43.32% ROI Big believer in the commanders taking a major step back this year. I expect this one to be close throughout.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

McLaurin finally got paid, but he missed most of camp and we’ve seen plenty of top WRs (Chase, Lamb, Aiyuk last year) start slow in that situation. He’s coming off a career year with a 70% catch rate, which was 11.6% over expected, largely fueled by finally having an elite QB in Jayden Daniels under center. However, that level of efficiency is tough to repeat. Now add in more target competition: Deebo Samuel joins the mix, and with Brian Robinson Jr. gone, Austin Ekeler could take on a bigger early-season receiving role out of the backfield. That creates several factors pulling McLaurin’s target share down. I’m projecting him closer to 4.2 receptions, with around a 59% chance to stay under 4.5. He’s still dangerous in receiving yards markets so this isn’t a fade in that market, but his profile makes him another candidate for the “Under receptions, Over yards” style of reverse-correlation parlay I flagged with Wan’Dale if you want to go that route as well.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Robinson has made his living as a low-aDOT volume guy, but Russell Wilson isn’t the best fit for that style. Reports have him lining up outside more, which could mean deeper routes and fewer easy targets underneath. That makes his reception line too high if true. Week 1 props are always a crapshoot (we’re working off beat reports, coachspeak, and speculation) so I’m treading carefully. But this is the type of angle worth taking early. If his role does shift, his receiving yards line (35.5) looks too low. I actually show value both ways, which sets up a reverse-correlation angle: Under 4.5 receptions & Over 30+ receiving yards Parlaying that pays +367, and my sims have it closer to +250 as fair. If he goes his usual 8/30/0, so be it. We’ll finally get real data in Week 1 to sharpen from.

Playing this on pass the prop as Nabers to lead game In receiving +125 on fanduel

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The history of this rivalry is close. Even last year as the Commanders won 12 games, they beat the terrible Giants by just five and three points. In fact, Washington has won only four of the last 13 games against the Giants. That includes a one-point win too, which means the Commanders have only covered this spread once in 13 games against New York. I'm honestly just not sure either team is that good. Jayden Daniels was brilliant as a rookie but has to do it all over again with defenses readier for him this time around, and what are Washington's other strengths? Linebacker? Anything else? The Giants are loaded on the defensive front with Dexter Lawrence surrounded by Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and rookie Abdul Carter, and that unit should be a huge factor against a Commanders line in flux. Washington will start two new tackles, Laremy Tunsil on the left and rookie Josh Conerly on the right, and the Commanders are still missing G Sam Cosmi too. Why is this nearly a touchdown spread? Washington's offense is good but not great; the Giants defense may rank just as high. New York's offense doesn't look good, but neither does Washington's defense. I love this spot for the Giants — and that was all before I checked out BetLabs and found an absolute trends bonanza. It's a 13-0 trends shutout for the G-Men! Some of my favorites: Week 1 road underdogs that missed last year's playoffs since 2011: 61-36-2 ATS (63%) Week 1 division underdogs since 2015: 33-17-1 ATS (66%) Week 1 teams that missed the playoffs against division opponents that made it: 41-15-1 ATS (73%) Russell Wilson: 65% ATS for his career as an underdog, including 71% in the division Dan Quinn: 25-38 ATS as a head coach favorite (below 40%), the least profitable active coach

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Parlayed with Scottie Scheffler to win The Open (-110) on July 18th.

Russell Wilson isn't amazing, but he's still a big boost for this Giants offense, which does have a decent infrastructure. Add to that the Commanders' additions at impactful positions on offense, and I've got this total around 50.

Early season divisional underdogs Overall: 130-66-6,66% (ROI:27%)