Dodgers vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 5, 2025

Sandy Alcantara is cooked – 13.50 ERA, 2.34 WHIP last 3 starts. Got rocked by LAD 6 days ago: 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 BB. Ben Casparius has a 0.92 WHIP and hasn’t allowed a run in last 3 outings. Dodgers lineup just saw Sandy – Betts, Ohtani, Freeman ready to feast again. LAD offense rolling – 5.35 runs/game on the year, .308 AVG last 10. Against righties? .258 AVG, .342 OBP. Four hitters with under 2.5% weak contact. Miami bats ice cold – .213 last 10 games, just 2-8 in that span. Struggling to generate anything beyond singles. Bullpen mismatch too – Dodgers pen: 3.17 ERA (1.95 last 3), 1.13 WHIP. Marlins pen: 3.99 ERA, 5.72 last 3. Dodgers 7-3 last 10, won 26 of last 36 vs MIA. Recent sweep fresh in memory (34-15 run diff). Momentum, matchup, and depth all scream LAD run line.

Alcantara's velocity has been fine but his control has been nonexistent. He has a massive 14.2% BB% through 6 starts. Alcantara also ranks 20th percentile in hard-hit rate and 19th percentile in average exit velocity. Getting hit hard and not throwing strikes is a rough combination, especially against this offense. The Dodgers lead the league in OPS and wOBA against RHP and are 3rd in wRC+. Perhaps more importantly, they're 4th in K/BB. The Dodgers are one of 7 teams with a BB% above 10% vs. RHP this season. It's a frightening group of patient hitters who do damage. Alcantara should round into form soon, but it's hard to imagine him bouncing back here. After giving up 7 ERs against the Dodgers last time out, he's now allowed 20 ERs over his past 4 starts.

Still feels weird fading Alcantara after he was so dominant a couple years ago but here we are. He just faced the Dodgers and gave up 7 and didn’t even make it through 3 innings. Even if we get into a bullpen game Dodgers have one of the best bullpens and Miami has one of the worst so another positive angle here

Tailing @TurveyBets. Walk rate is up, strike rate and swinging strike rate is down, so I get the appeal here. Dodgers bottom-10 in strikeout rate vs RHP this season (21.4% which ranks 23rd).

Write up over at Scores and Odds but this one seems a little crazy…

Struggling with pitch efficiency, leading to a lot of walks. The Dodgers also average 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against righties, a lofty number. Alcantara struggled in this matchup last week due to these factors, and I've got value for him to go under again tonight, as well.

Shohei Bases YTD: 14-15 (-0.86u)

Bet to -180