Padres vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2025

Padres at Cubs

7:08 pm • ABC

San Diego Padres

1-2

3 - 0

Chicago Cubs

2-1

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Kittredge			5.40	0-1
D.Cease			0.00	0-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 1-2	-1.5	-1.5+163	o6.5-111	-111
Cubs 2-1	u7	+1.5-203	u6.5-107	-110

Wednesday 7:08 p.m.

October 01, 2025

Wrigley FieldChicago

CHC +148 (Live)

Over 6.5 (Live)-116

Under 6.5-105

0.95u

Under 3.5 (F5)-125

Under 6.5-110

D.Cease u5.5 Ks+112

1.12u

CHC -115

1.15u

Under 6.5+100

Both bullpens are above-average and I’m expecting Imanaga to come in as the bulk pitcher for Chicago to help against the lefties in the bottom of the lineup. Padres facing elimination so should be a quick hook for Cease if he’s ineffective or runs into trouble. Winds projected to be blowing in. All these factors have me on the Under 6.5 here.

A.Kittredge u0.5 Ks+205

Since getting traded to Chicago, Kittredge has made 23 appearances. All of them were 1 inning or less. He pitched in Game 1, covering a single inning. Kittredge has bumped his strikeout rate to a career-high 30.8% by spamming his slider. He's thrown the pitch 52.9% of the time, and it has an excellent 40.3% whiff rate. San Diego makes a ton of contact. They had the 3rd-lowest K% vs. RHP in the regular season. Tatis (18.9% K% against RHP this season), Luis Arraez (2.3%), and Manny Machado (19.5%) will be the first three hitters in the lineup. Their strikeout numbers against specifically right-handed sliders are in line with their season-long marks, so they shouldn't be overly susceptible to Kittredge's main pitch.

CHC -116

1.16u

Obligatory Cease fade

Under 6.5-115

1.74u

SD o3.5+124

Over 3.5 (F5)+105

0.95u

Over 3.5 (F5)+105

SD -102

CHC -110

@Zerillo

D.Cease u14.5 Outs-115

0.87u

@Zerillo @cowhitchurch https://myaction.app/irmZJtM46Wb

CHC -113

D.Cease u14.5 Outs-141

0.1u

Bet to -155

SD +102

CHC -112

CHC -106

1.06u

Analysis on Tiktok… I’d play to -120

Under 6.5+100

SD +102

1.02u

CHC -104

1.04u

Bet to -115

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 39-42 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Cubs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Cubs' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	78-84	39-42	39-42	55-60	22-24
Padres	87-75	45-36	42-39	44-49	42-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	74-78-10	40-36-5	34-42-5	52-56-7	22-21-3
Padres	69-89-4	34-46-1	35-43-3	46-45-2	23-43-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	4-4	50-31	42-39	73-42	18-28
Padres	1-2	52-29	38-43	56-37	33-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 30th	SD	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 6.5	CHC -133
Sep 28th	STL	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 7	CHC -155
Sep 27th	STL	W 7-3	-1.5 W	O 9.5	CHC -178
Sep 26th	STL	W 12-1	-1.5 W	O 9	CHC -184
Sep 25th	NYM	L 5-8	+1.5 L	O 7.5	NYM -103

Michael Soroka
SP
Soroka is out with shoulder
Out
Justin Steele
SP
Steele is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Joe Musgrove
SP
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RD.Cease, P	69	3.2	5
LA.Morejon, P	33	2.1	1
RM.Miller, P	27	1.2	5
RR.Suarez, P	18	1.1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Tatis, RF	1-4	2	0	0
2L.Arraez, 1B	2-3	0	0	0
3M.Machado, 3B	1-4	1	1	2
4J.Merrill, CF	0-2	0	0	1
5X.Bogaerts, SS	1-4	0	0	0
6R.O'Hearn, DH	1-3	0	0	0
7G.Sheets, LF	0-1	0	0	0
7J.Iglesias, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7B.Johnson, LF	0-2	0	0	0
8J.Cronenworth, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
9F.Fermin, C	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Kittredge, P	20	1	1	1
LS.Imanaga, P	67	4	3	2
LC.Thielbar, P	14	0.2	1	0
RC.Rea, P	15	1.2	1	0
LT.Rogers, P	13	1	0	0
RM.Soroka, P	6	0.2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Busch, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
2N.Hoerner, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
3I.Happ, LF	0-4	0	0	0
4K.Tucker, DH	1-4	0	0	0
5S.Suzuki, RF	1-4	0	0	0
6C.Kelly, C	0-2	0	0	0
7P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	0-3	0	0	0
8D.Swanson, SS	1-3	0	0	0
9M.Shaw, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
9M.Ballesteros, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9W.Castro, 3B	0-0	0	0	0