Celtics vs. Mavericks Odds & Betting Predictions - June 15, 2024

Sneak 🐳

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#Tailing @PropBomb

Run it back AGAIN. Set at 6.5 REB all day until the KP news where it got bumped higher. Same logic applies. Going into Game 4 with the mindset Dallas shooting positively regresses at home and are mindful for 2nd chance baskets. 11 rebounds chances the first two games, then 9 the most recent one. It’s simple - Horford is the weakest starting defender on the Celtics and will be actively picked on by switch using Luka Doncic in single-coverage to let him win as a scorer rather than get his teamates in rhythm. #PlayerProps

@JayMoneyIsMoney23

@ChrisRaybon

#Tailing @PropBomb

Kyrie is averaging 6.7 RA in his last six playoff games, failing to go over this line in 6 of the seven games, including all 100% of the time in the Finals. In Game 3, he recorded 5 RA, but interestingly, only one came in the 2nd half. Regarding the rebounding angle, he’s averaging the highest rebounding distance (13.3) of all Mavericks players and only seeing 6.0 rebound chances. The Mavs closed the game going with a 2-3 zone, purposely positioning Kyrie on the perimeter, so that way he either 1) is less likely to be switched on by the Jays on downhill drives and 2) can close out on Derrick White/Jrue Holiday, his strength on defense. As for recording assists, Game 3 saw his highest FGA (28) of the series - likely due to the paint being less protected without Kristaps. Especially in desperation mode, he HAS to settle into taking a high degree of difficulty shots and be ultra-aggressive. BOS is taking away the lob threats and corner threes, and aside from Luka (who is more ISO-heavy than catch-and-shoot on passes), Kyrie doesn’t have a reliable perimeter threat to convert assists. #PlayerProps

This line is too high for Al even with Porzingis unlikely to play tonight. During the Playoffs, Horford is averaging 9.1 RA while exceeding this mark in 41% of games without KP he doesn’t see a discernible uptick in production here while averaging 9.2 RA and is just 4/11 on this line. Last game he had just 7 RA off of 9 rebound chances and 3 potential assists. Although Horford should see bigger minutes in a potentially series clinching game, he’s often spaced out to the perimeter on offense while on defense Tatum has been pre-switched onto the Center to help with the PnR coverage. Both schematic choices limit his rebounding and assists upside. I’ll grab under 9.5 RA.

Would tail @TurveyBets to the end of the Earth on this

@TurveyBets

Hedging out of a weakened position on Boston to Win But Not Sweep. See Twitter for full explanation. With this play, we cover 2 of the 3u potentially lost there (and likely lock in 4-5u of props wins), or if Dallas wins we still make a small profit on Boston in 5-6-7. Only remaining risk is a Dallas in 7 historical comeback, and we’ll have to live with that. Mostly a get out of jail free card.

Running this back. Hit in 6 of L7 games and 8 of L10 overall. Still finished 2nd on Celtics in REB Chances (9) in G3. Leads NBA Finals in total offensive rebounds with 9. Leads all players in REB chances per game in Finals. Played 40+ min in G2 and G3.

My Game Guide: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/celtics-vs-mavericks-odds-pick-nba-finals-game-4-predictions