Celtics vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - March 8, 2024

@JayMoneyIsMoney23

Meant to play to win ~1 unit

The Nuggets host the Boston Celtics in a potential NBA Finals matchup tonight. While we traditionally have backed Jokic to dime at home and score on the road, I like this matchup for Jokic to contribute with both. Jokic has fared very well against Porzingis over the last few seasons, while exceeding 34.5 PA in five consecutive matchups dating back to 2021 in Porzinigis’ time with the Dallas Mavericks. This includes a 34 point and 9 assist effort back in a 2 point Nuggets’ victory on January 19th in Boston. Jokic has had a couple 1H ejections this season but in the games he has played 20+ minutes he is averaging 26.6 points and 9.3 assists per game (35.9 PA). The thing about his last game in Boston was he took 22 FGAs which is higher than the ~18 per game he averages but he did dish 9 assists on 14 potentials which are just slightly down from his season averages. One of the reasons I like Jokic to score is we know the Nuggets’ 2 man game with Murray and Jokic has been absolutely unstoppable, and in the postseason, when Jokic is doubled it is far too easy for Denver to score easy buckets through his facilitating. In the January matchup, the Celtics tried to defend Jokic with a variety of different schemes. Using Porzingis H2H, Horford H2H, zone, doubles, etc. Jokic dealt with all of them. Playoff bound teams with title aspirations often use these regular season games as ways to coax their opponents to show their hand in a particular matchup so they can have extra film on it for the postseason. It would not surprise me to see Malone try and force Mazzula’s hand here to throw some new or nuanced defensive schemes into the mix and see if anything works. I’m taking the PA here because I think Jokic is the best tool Denver has to shred this elite Boston defense. If he continues to cook as a scorer, we shouldn’t have much issue just on residual dimes, but he also has the potential to rack up double digit assists as well and contribute to the combo prop in that regard. I expect Jokic to have an MVP performance tonight against the Boston Celtics and exceed 34.5 PA.