Heat vs. Magic Odds & Betting Predictions - December 27, 2024

BetRivers

THE BOUNCE 📽️: 9.51 Rebs Bam in under this mark in each of his last 4 games and in 59% of games this season, averaging 10 rebounds per game. The heat may also be without Jimmy Butler tonight, which strengthens this play even more. Without Jimmy this season, Bam has been under in 5 of 7, averaging just 8.4 Rebs per game. ORL is allowing the fewest rebounds per game this season and to opposing centers. In 2 matchups vs ORL so far this season Bam has just 6 and 5 rebounds. The 6-rebound effort came just 5 days ago and Bam played 34 mins in that one. Over the last 10 games, Bam isn't even leading this team in rebound chances, Tyler Herro is! He's only averaging 7.9 rebound chances per game over that stretch. Feels like a good spot for the under here and I was expecting this line to open at 9.5.

Tailing @PropBomb. I also have this projected closer to 9.5 rebounds.

#Tailing @PropBomb

The “under rebounds”market features admittedly a lot of variance, but I think there’s enough edge on this prop to give it one last shot before moving away from it, The Orlando Magic are currently allowing just 43.5 rebounds per game, ranking first in the league. They permit an average of 13.6 rebounds to centers (9th in the league) and only 3.2 offensive rebounds to these players (tied for 2nd) in a span of 48 minutes since the start of December. Jimmy Butler did not travel with the team to Orlando, so he is assumed to be out for tonight’s game. This season, Bam Adebayo has averaged 10.0 rebounds over 27 games. However, without Jimmy, his average drops to 8.4 rebounds in 7 games, with 14.3 chances. Notably, in the two games where his rebound totals exceeded expectations (11 and 12), he managed to grab 6 offensive rebounds in each. In his previous two matchups vs. ORL, Adebayo recorded 5 and 6 rebounds, averaging 12 chances. With Butler out, Adebayo is expected to play a larger role offensively, serving as a hub for dribble hand-offs (DHO) and positioning further from the rim. Additionally, Goga Bitadze and Wendell Carter Jr. are both strong rebounders who excel at boxing out, which may limit Adebayo's rebounding opportunities tonight. Miami as a team, all collectively go to grab rebounds, and last game vs. ORL, Jovic picked up early foul trouble which made them go even smaller. In the 11 games where Adebayo went 11+ rebounds, 8 of them came from him grabbing at least 3 offensive boards. So there’s a big correlation if Adebayo is limited off the glass, which Orlando ranks 2nd best at. 11-17 reb chances is a good parameter going in.. assuming this rings true, he goes under in 75% of games averaging 9.3 rebounds. #PlayerProps

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