Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - May 16, 2025

Thunder at Nuggets

12:30 am • ESPN

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-3

107

107 - 119

Denver Nuggets

3-3

119

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Thunder 3-3	-5	-5-112	o218.5-109	-205
Nuggets 3-3	u219	+5-108	u218.5-111	+170

Friday 12:30 a.m.

May 16, 2025

Ball ArenaDenver

R.Westbrook u7.5 Rebs+Ast-115

1.04u

J.Murray u24.5 Pts+Ast-115

1.2u

J.Murray u28.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

1.3u

J.Murray u23.5 Pts+Rebs-125

1.5u

OKC -5-105

0.53u

C.Braun o1.5 3pt M-125

A.Gordon o1.5 3pt M-118

1.18u

C.Wallace u4.5 Pts-104

1.04u

S.Gilgeous-Alexander o7.5 Ast+114

0.88u

I.Hartenstein o10.5 Pts-125

1.25u

Over 216.5-110

A.Wiggins u5.5 Pts+105

I.Hartenstein o9.5 Rebs-115

1.15u

C.Holmgren o14.5 Pts-105

0.95u

Ugly man gets 15+

OKC -5.5-102

2.04u

J.Murray o19.5 Pts-105

Under 216.5-105

C.Braun o1.5 3pt M-125

A.Caruso o13.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-110

0.45u

A.Gordon o6.5 Rebs-115

A.Caruso o13.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-106

N.Jokic o42.5 Pts+Rebs-120

L.Dort u13.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

0.42u

C.Wallace o4.5 Pts-125

0.4u

Trying once more

M.Porter o1.5 3pt M-130

OKC -5-111

1.11u

S.Gilgeous-Alexander o6.5 Ast-140

1.4u

OKC -182

1.82u

OKC -4-107

OKC -180

OKC -2 (1H)-110

C.Holmgren o14.5 Pts-105

I.Hartenstein o19.5 Pts+Rebs-140

0.5u

Hartenstein has hit this in 8 of his last 10 games. He’s hit it in every game this series and all 7 games against DEN this year. During the regular season DEN allowed the 13th most PR to the C position. As long as he stays out of foul trouble we should be good

S.Gilgeous-Alexander u36.5 Pts+Rebs-105

1.24u

M.Porter o15.5 Pts+Rebs+100

M.Porter o16.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast+100

1.2u

Under 217.5-110

1.1u

playoff under Overall: 127-63-0,67% (ROI:29%) Season:9-7-0,56% (ROI:7%)

OKC -4.5-110

Talk to em

N.Jokic o35.5 Pts+Ast-125

0.8u

The Denver Nuggets are on the brink of elimination, but they are going to be at home to try and force a game seven. Jokić has been fairly inconsistent this series in large part because it’s felt as if he’s out of rhythm against the nonstop defensive pressure from both Chet and Hartenstein. However, he seemingly figured it out last game where he went 17 of 25 from the field. Jokic’s teammmates also shot about as poorly as they possibly could last game and he converted just 5 of his 20 potential assists. With the Nuggets at home, I’d expect a few more of those to fall. Jokic could clear this line with just points alone, but the upside for assists makes this tantalizing even in a tough matchup against the Thunder.

M.Porter o14.5 Pts+Rebs-130

The Nuggets are on the ropes and one of the variables this series has been MPJ’s health and his shoulder. He’s been able to receive some treatment on his shoulder but it’s not an every day thing. The last two games he’s gotten treatment have been prior to Game 7 against the Clippers and before Game 3. With the season on the line tonight, I’d estimate that today is the day for it as well. 14.5 is a number he could hit regardless with just scoring alone; however, if he’s feeling good the rebounds are a nice boost here considering he’s averaged 6 this series anyway.

Under 219-110

Game 6 grind incoming? Thunder hitting the Under in 7 of last 10 overall. Post-Game 2, OKC’s offense tanked to 102.7 PPG. Denver since Game 1? Just 102.8 PPG. Defenses dialing in, pace slowing, buckets hard to come by. Thunder averaging just 98 PPG there this series. Both games in Denver? 198 total PPG with an OT boost. Denver’s defense locking in at home, disrupting OKC rhythm early. Halfcourt slugfest incoming. Points will be earned, not handed out. Historical head-to-head backs it – Under cashed in 10 of last 14 Nuggets vs Thunder. Series line dropping fast as books adjust to low output. With both squads now built on defense-first identity, don’t expect fireworks – expect a crawl.

C.Braun u1.5 3pt M+112

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OKC -4.5-108

1.1u

S.Gilgeous-Alexander o6.5 Ast-150

0.27u

OKC -4.5-110

1.1u

S.Gilgeous-Alexander u1.5 3pt M-115

0.58u

Has only cleared this in 1 game in series and 3/9 playoff games so far. Only 21% of his total shots in series coming from 3PT range.

M.Porter o15.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-108

0.54u

Reason? MPJ 💉 in shoulder

OKC -4.5-110

1.1u

DEN +5-110

0.91u

OKC -4.5-110

S.Gilgeous-Alexander o12.5 Rebs+Ast-130

1.3u

M.Porter o8.5 Pts-115

0.5u

Under 216-110

0.55u

OKC -4.5-115

1.15u

OKC -4.5-110

1.1u

road favs off big wins playoffs Overall: 50-26-2,66% (ROI:28%) Season:1-3-0,25% (ROI:-52%)

OKC -4.5-110

0.5u

G6 trends… -road team up 3-2: 63-33 ATS (66%) -up 3-2 after 2 failed covers: 25-9 ATS (74%) -road fav up 3-2: 27-8 ATS (77%) I liked Denver in home G6 but I worry they emptied the tank in G5 playing Jokic/Murray the whole 2h. Already have Denver outs anyway.

S.Gilgeous-Alexander o6.5 Ast-150

0.75u

do I seriously have to tell you why AGAIN

I.Hartenstein o19.5 Pts+Rebs-118

1.18u

Over this line in his last 8 games against the Nuggets, and this number is 20.5 on every other book except for FD and BetRivers

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No props found

NBA Public Betting

Nuggets are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Nuggets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nuggets are 20-21 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Nuggets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 26 of Nuggets' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	38-43-1	18-22-1	20-21	27-33-1	11-10
Thunder	54-26-3	29-13-1	25-13-2	50-25-3	3-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nuggets	48-33-1	26-15	22-18-1	35-25-1	13-8
Thunder	46-37	25-18	21-19	44-34	2-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	7-6	N/A	N/A	40-21	10-11
Thunder	7-3	N/A	N/A	64-14	3-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 14th	@OKC	L 105-112	+10 W	U 221.5	OKC +350
May 11th	OKC	L 87-92	+7 W	U 228	OKC +225
May 10th	OKC	W 113-104	+6.5 W	U 232	DEN +210
May 8th	@OKC	L 106-149	+10 L	O 230	OKC +375
May 6th	@OKC	W 121-119	+10.5 W	O 229.5	DEN +360

DaRon Holmes
SF
Holmes is out with achilles
Out

Isaiah Joe
PG
Joe is questionable with knee
Questionable
Nikola Topic
PG
Topić is out for season with knee
Out for Season

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scoring
Nikola Jokic
29
ppg
rebounding
Nikola Jokic
14
rpg
assists
Nikola Jokic
8
apg
shooting
Nikola Jokic
64.3
fg%

Thunder

Nuggets

43-92 (47%)

Field Goals

40-86 (47%)

10-16 (63%)

Free Throws

27-32 (84%)

11-40 (28%)

12-32 (38%)

Rebounds

Assists

Turnovers

Steals

Blocks

Fouls

Could not load odds

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MatchupOverUnder
Thunder 3-3	o111.5-116	u111.5-104
Nuggets 3-3	o106.5-111	u106.5-108

Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - May 16, 2025

Thunder at Nuggets

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+190 Parlay for Nuggets vs. Thunder

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