49ers vs. Eagles Odds & Betting Predictions - January 29, 2023

@SimonHunterNFL Gave out pregame. Adding for tracking now

When in Rome, always back Josh Johnson in the 2H when there are only 2.5 football games left. Isn’t that the saying?

CZR

MGM: Avg. 33.2 PassAtt L5. 35+ in three of the five. Two misses were vs NYG where both game was over at HT. PHI has shown they adapt gameplay via matchups. SF 2nd DVOA vs. Rush and 10 of L12 QB have 33+ PassAtt vs them. #PlayerProps

FanDuel. Mitchell being out pushed me over the edge on this one - CMC is over this line in 4/6 full games he’s played without him (excl the limited snaps he saw in his first game with SF). PHI has not faced many of the top running back receivers this season, but they do rank 24th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

FD: Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/miles-sanders-player-props-expert-bet-rushing-yards-49ers-vs-eagles?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=propbomb

15+ in 4 of last 5 with Mitchell out

DK Boost

26+ in 6 of 8 career playoff games, Mitchell out

Project +775 fair FanDuel QuickSlip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.360386421&selectionId[0]=28236251&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Dropped to 18-1 at FD so I'll double dip FanDuel QuickSlip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.360386421&selectionId[0]=20538928&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

DK

Fix bet. Sorry ment over-!

At BetRivers: #LuckRankings

Riding with @GDAWG5000

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-expert-eagles-vs-49ers-chiefs-vs-bengals-picks?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=propbetguy

@nick_giffen

#69WithDale

At DK: Writeup in Predictive Analytics Best Bets

Bet at Bet365.

DraftKings. The 49ers rush defense ranks 2nd in Football Outsider’s DVOA metric. Against RPO based offenses, they’ve traditionally broke contain to protect against the running back, which has led to QB’s having some success on the ground. Philly will have to utilize this in their run game. And obviously QB rush attempts are part of the pass game: if the Eagles are going pass heavy, that’ll lead to more scramble opportunities. He’s had 9 and 9 in consecutive games post injury that were hardly competitive. This game should be, and his legs will be needed. Before his injury, he was 7/10 clearing this line in games that were decided by 14 pts or less.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/content/san-francisco-49ers-vs-philadelphia-eagles-odds-picks-prediction-championship-game-nfc/embed

Via @wheatonbrando

75+ sprinkle escalator

Via @wheatonbrando

Niners struggle vs WR2 so this is a devonta game. He's red hot with huge jump last 7g from early season: First 11g: 5/55, 3 TD Last 7g: 6.4/93, 5 TD Playing almost every snap and an expanded role in red zone and stretching field, up from 7 to 10 targets. His versatility to play in the slot or outside will be a key mismatch and he can hit the big play. My favorite prop of the weekend and I'm playing some alts. +270 to have the most yards in this game, and +5000 DK for SB MVP if you haven't tailed yet. Lean Eagles at home but small play with both teams a bit unproven and unknown against elite competition plus so similar. Comes down to what you trust more: Philly passing or SF run. I trust Hurts to find Brown and Smith against a beatable secondary, and pass > run plus home field and healthy vs a 7th round rookie on the road. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-conference-championship-picks-bets-player-props-49ers-vs-eagles-bengals-vs-chiefs?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

Luke Swain / VegasRefund Best Bet

Raybon 1

Foxhole

#vegasrefund @VegasRefund

At PointsBet: Analsyis on @TheTDShow on Sunday

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

Bet at FanDuel. My fave Eagle to score. Has 8+ targets in 10 straight games. 6 TD in that stretch. Niners gave up 16 TD to WR this season and bottom-5 in passing yards to position. Like AJ Brown too but picking between the two, I’m with Devonta. If you have FanDuel and want to tail, use QuickSlip below for easy process: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.360386421&selectionId%5B0%5D=16602548&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Bet365 5:12 pm EST Thursday.

BetMGM: see my prop guide for full analysis

0 turnover-worthy throws over last 3 games (79 att). Even after adjusting for PHI defense, projecting Purdy to throw 0 INT 47.5% of the time, so edge on u0.5 INT at +112 or better.

#Tailing @ChrisRaybon. FD quickslip. https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.360468990&selectionId[0]=40913449&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Median 0 rec yds in 13g with Goedert. Season-low 27% route participation even with AJB gimpy last week. Projecting median of 13.

#simonhunter @SimonHunterNFL

@nick_giffen #NickGiffen

I still think the 49ers' offense will struggle at some point, especially if they fall behind. But my model makes them a slight favorite here even with the game in Philadelphia. It's the combination of elite defensive play with an absurdly efficient offense that pushes them over the edge. I think the moneyline is the better play than the spread here because I do think the Eagles would be in position to coast if they were to claim an early lead. It's not fun to bet against the Eagles, given how much of a delight they've been this year, but I do agree with what my numbers are saying here.

#LuckRankings

Make it 3