Dolphins vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2023

Dolphins at Bills

5:00 pm • CBS

Miami Dolphins

0-0-1

20 - 48

Buffalo Bills

0-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dolphins 0-0-1	+3-110	o52.5-108	+125
Bills 0-1	-3-110	u52.5-112	-150

Sunday 5:00 p.m.

October 01, 2023

Highmark StadiumOrchard Park

BUF -2.5-120

0.67u

BUF -2.5-115

J.Waddle Anytime TD Scorer+165

@charliedisturco

BUF -3-105

BUF -2.5-120

$250.00

BUF -2.5-112

Liked Buffalo all week at less than a FG, that’s where we got the contest line.

BUF -3-115

0.87u

Under 53-112

Over 53.5-105

0.95u

BUF -3-112

2.68u

BUF -2.5-120

MIA +3-115

1.15u

Under 53.5-110

1.1u

BUF -3-112

D.Kincaid o2.5 Recs-120

0.83u

D.Kincaid o2.5 Recs-120

J.Waddle u4.5 Recs-106

D.Kincaid 40+ Receiving Yards+194

J.Waddle 70+ Receiving Yards+124

J.Allen o34.5 Rush Yds-115

Every Team Every Game: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-4-preview-odds-picks-every-game-every-team

J.Allen 50+ Rushing Yards+220

0.5u

Every Team Every Game: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-4-preview-odds-picks-every-game-every-team

J.Waddle o58.5 Rec Yds-125

BUF -2.5-110

Simon Says

BUF -3-105

Stuckey 2

J.Allen o35.5 Rush Yds-120

0.4u

Under 53.5-105

S.Diggs o6.5 Recs-125

1.25u

Diggs is over this line in 3/3 - and was 2/3 last season vs Miami. Last two Bills games have been very positive gamescripts - expecting this one to stay closer. Plus, Bills still pass happy with a 64% pass play% in neutral game scripts (4th highest, and was at 61% last season). MIA does have some vulnerabilities with their rush defense, but this game profiles as a shootout. Dolphins also running a lot more zone coverage this season, but even if Diggs does get matched up with Xavien Howard, it’s a plus spot. Howard has allowed 16 catches on 22 targets this season.

BUF -3-105

$100.00

BUF -2.5-119

0.5u

BUF -2.5-120

0.83u

I’ve seen this movie before and the dolphin dies

Under 53.5-111

BUF -2.5-118

0.85u

I’m still evaluating, but on the surface I get a home team in a division game at less than a FG. Miami is the matrix rn, so may buy out at some point if I get more intel. Quickslip to FD https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.396836578&selectionId[0]=50203&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

BUF -2.5-113

Featured Insight
Dolphins RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 14.0% of 412 carries since the 2022 season -- tied for best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 10+ yards on 14.0% of carries to RBs since the 2022 season -- third-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Bills are averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season -- tied for third-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 4.7 yards per carry to RBs this season -- tied for ninth-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Bills are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Bills are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Bills are 5-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Bills' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 6 of Bills' 8 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bills	10-7	5-3	5-4	8-5	2-2
Dolphins	7-10	3-5	4-5	4-5	3-5

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Bills	11-6	6-2	5-4	10-3	1-3
Dolphins	8-9	6-2	2-7	5-4	3-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bills	13-4	N/A	N/A	11-2	2-2
Dolphins	8-9	N/A	N/A	6-3	2-6

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 24th	@WAS	W 37-3	-5.5 W	U 44	BUF -237
Sep 17th	LV	W 38-10	-7.5 W	O 46.5	BUF -355
Sep 12th	@NYJ	L 16-22	-2.5 L	U 44.5	NYJ -140
Aug 26th	@CHI	W 24-21	-3 L	O 37.5	BUF -186
Aug 19th	@PIT	L 15-27	-1 L	U 42.5	PIT -110

Dolphins

Total

Bills

393

Total Yards

414

Total Plays

6.8

Yards Per Play

7.4

Dolphins

Passing

Bills

282

YDS

320

25/35

Comps/Atts

21/25

6.436

YPA

11.481

1/1

TDs/INTs

4/0

4/31

Sacks/Yards

2/10

Dolphins

Rushing

Bills

142

Rush Yards

104

Attempts

7.474

YPC

3.586

TDs

Dolphins

Turnovers

Bills

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Dolphins

Efficiency

Bills

3/4 75%

Redzone

5/6 83.33%

3/10 0%

3rd Down

5/10 0%

0/3 0%

4th Down

0/0 0%

Dolphins

First Downs

Bills

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Dolphins

Misc

Bills

8/98

Penalties/Yards

4/20

29:38

Possession

30:22

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MatchupOverUnder
Dolphins 0-0-1	o24.5-115	u24.5-115
Bills 0-1	o27.5+104	u27.5-126

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2023

Dolphins at Bills

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Dolphins vs. Bills Previews & Analysis

How to Bet Every Game and Every Team in NFL Week 4

Dolphins vs. Bills: Beware of Miami Hype in AFC East Clash

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Our Staff's 9 Best Bets at 1 p.m. ET

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Public

Bills

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