Rams vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2024

Going to be out for games so this is mainly a pre alert but did play some small 3. Looking for PK or better live

#ProSystem ... road conference dogs low total Overall: 352-416-2,46% (ROI:21%) Season:3-3-0,50% (ROI:48%)

@GDAWG5000

🔬If he’s healthy enough to play, he’s healthy enough for 5. Keenan is dealing with plantar fasciitis. Dr. Deepak Chona on Twitter highlights that this should not have any effects on his performance today just the risk for rea-aggravation. 🔬With all that being said he gets the best wr/cb matchup in football today and should be a safety target for Caleb. The rams d line is one of the bigger mismatches in todays slate vs the Bears o line, this along with the heavy zone ran by the rams should allow for 5 catches to keenan in the first half before we have to worry about re-aggravation.

FD / Caesars

Fading LA after coming back vs SF

Johnson racked up 32 rec yards against the Colts last week on 5 targets for 4 catches. There have been some rumblings that he should see an expanded role with the struggles by D'Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert. When he's grabbed at least 1 reception he's exceeded this line in six straight games. With his line at 1.5 (heavy juice) or 2.5, I like his chances today.

#ProSystem . close games windy unders Overall: 443-294-7,60% (ROI:16%) Season:4-3-0,57% (ROI:9%)

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-bets-brock-bowers-pick-for-week-4

Don’t let the 63-yard reception back in SNF Week 1 fool you, he caught the ball one yard away and just so happened to have four broken tackles - very rare. On the season, he’s under in 2/3 games while failing to record a 16-yard catch in 9 of his 10 total receptions (90% rate). Johnson has an average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.3 which ranks 67th out of 74 (91st-percentile) qualified receivers with at least 10 targets thru three weeks. He’s taking on the “Puka Nacua” WR3 role and splitting with rookie Whittington running short to intermediate static/shallow/underneath and crossing routes where he’s by the line of scrimmage while Tutu Atwell (15.3 aDOT) and Demarcus Robinson (18.3 aDOT) are responsible for the deep looks. In Week 3, Johnson saw his snap count cut in half from 87% 📉 to 50% while former second-round pick Tutu Atwell earned the full-time WR2 role. So not only will he see a limited role he’s used to seeing, he’ll also be up against a Bears secondary that’s ranked 6th in coverage grade per PFF and permitting the 7th fewest yards after contact per receptions. #PlayerProps

The absence of Kupp/Puka didn’t effect Robinson’s targets/target share at all W1: 7 TRG for 4 REC (14% TRG share) W2: 4 TRG for 2 REC (13% TRG share) W3: 4 TRG for 1 REC (14% TRG share) From W1 to W2/W3, LAR Pass% dropped 11.8%, which included a game they were down since the 1Q. LAR are +3 underdogs, but in a neutral/competitive gamescript, I don’t see McVay/LAR forcing throws against a very good CHI secondary CHI ranks #6 in COV grade (per PFF) and their #1 corner, Jaylon Johnson, ranks #13 in COV grade among qualifying DBs. PFF projects Robinson to line up across from Johnson for most of the game or at least on his side of the field since CHI primarily run zone. Robinson’s ADOT vs. zone jumps from 11.2 vs. man coverage to 20.8 vs. zone. Longer, deep passes down the field are naturally more difficult to bring down for a catch. Robinson’s ADOT has risen on a weekly basis as well - W1 11.7, W2 20.3, and W3 28.3. CHI have only allowed one outside WR to cover their receptions line so far and that was Nico Collins - Ridley 4.5 line —> 3 REC - Hopkins 3.5 line —> 1 REC - Nico 4.5 line —> 8 REC - Dell 3.5 line —> 1 REC - Pittman 4.5 line —> 4 REC - Pierce 2.5 line —> 1 REC Robinson has seen just 4 targets in the last two games and it seems like Tutu/Parkinson/Whittington will continue to work their way into the offense and demand more of the vacated targets. Robinson will have to be nearly perfect to haul in 4+ catches on 4-5 targets that are further down the field

Executive Decision

Raybon 3

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Bears have struggled offensively in recent games, posting just 16 and 13 points in their last two matchups. Even though Caleb Williams had some success in the passing game, throwing for 363 yards and two touchdowns, his two interceptions were costly. The run game has been largely ineffective, with D'Andre Swift rushing for just 20 yards on 13 carries, and Roschon Johnson adding a modest 30 yards on eight attempts. This has contributed to the Bears’ offensive woes, as they've averaged only 17.7 points per game this season, ranking 22nd in the league. While the Bears' defense has shown promise, especially with their ability to force turnovers—picking off Anthony Richardson twice—they've allowed an average of 19 points per game. Their defensive strength early in games has waned late, but with weather conditions favoring defense (high winds in Chicago), this could limit offensive production from both sides. On the other side, the Rams’ offense has also been far from explosive, putting up an average of 19 points per game. Injuries have significantly impacted their playmaking ability, with Cooper Kupp ruled out due to an ankle injury and Puka Nacua sidelined with a knee issue. These absences will hamper quarterback Matthew Stafford’s options in the passing game, making it harder for the Rams to capitalize on the Bears’ late-game defensive lapses. Additionally, the Rams have struggled to establish a consistent run game, and with injuries piling up, this offense isn't built to take advantage of Chicago’s potential defensive fatigue. The combination of two struggling offenses, Chicago’s solid defense, and weather conditions conducive to a low-scoring game makes the under highly favorable. Both teams are missing key offensive contributors, and the Bears’ defense should be able to limit a depleted Rams attack. With both teams averaging under 20 points per game and no clear path for either offense to break out, this matchup leans strongly toward a low-scoring affair.

Caesars

Under in 3/3 games. Averaging 1.8 YPC - he’s looked awful, as has the Bears run-blocking. Has been more productive in the passing game, but the Rams have locked that down so far this season. Plus, the Bears are reportedly going to give Roschon Johnson an extended look - swift’s snaps have already been trending down (70%, 66%, 53%).

@millmanc

Exec decision per @millmanc my model makes this -2.75

Liked it Sunday night on Faves pod, but didn’t grab the -1. Getting this before it hits 3.

Miss Williams💃 PICKEM