Saints vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - October 19, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I was high on Rome heading into the season and he was one of my top fantasy targets at cost.. and I’m still high on him. But this is the market to fade him in this specific spot. The game is expected to open with 20+ mph winds for at least the first half. It may calm down later, but as 4.5-point favorites, Chicago could lean more run-heavy in the second half if playing with a lead. The wind matters more for Rome than most because his average depth of target is 14.1 yards, which lowers his expected catch rate (which would be even lower with high winds). When he does haul one in, it typically goes for chunk yardage, so I don’t want to fade his yards.. just the volume. The Saints play zone at a top-10 rate. Rome’s target share drops from 41% against man to 20% against zone. That 20% is still solid but it’s a 21% dip against the exact coverage he’ll see most here. DJ Moore is expected to play through a questionable tag, and if he’s limited or exits, that likely means more snaps for Luther Burden III.. and I actually project Burden for a higher target rate than Moore. Any boost in Burden’s involvement comes at the expense of everyone else, including Rome. I project him closer to 4.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5.

The weather in this game could be gross. We are looking at winds in the 15-to-20 MPH range and a chance of drizzle on top of it. That could set up more of a run-forward game. Did Chicago fix its run game in the bye week? The Bears ranked 26th, 32nd, 16th, and 22nd in rushing EPA per play before the bye but leapt to 5th against what had been a positive Washington run defense on Monday night. That's huge for Ben Johnson since his teams will always be built around the run, and the healthier Chicago run defense played much better too. That sets up well for a Bears win, and my numbers make this Chicago by around a touchdown, but the Saints continue to hang around in games and the weather makes this too variable to want a side here. Instead I'll keep riding a trend we played last week against the Saints, who have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in every game this season. They've also allowed at least one TD to the opposing WR1 in four of six games. Rome Odunze has scored a touchdown every game this season but last week — and should have a perfect record if we're being honest, after making a great adjustment on a TD grab that was negated by a questionable penalty. Let's keep it going, with an Odunze Anytime TD at +125 (Hard Rock). Odunze already scored twice in a game earlier this season, and the Saints just allowed a 2-TD game last week, so sprinkle a portion of your bet on two scores at +650 (bet365).

THE BLITZ is forecasting 1.41 receptions for Colston Loveland compared to 2.18 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 60% of the time, resulting in a 46% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $46.41. (This play is good down to at least -108.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/bIlPMohsyXb

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THE BLITZ is forecasting 18.23 completions for Caleb Williams compared to 20.57 completions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 69% of the time, resulting in a 29% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $33.80. (This play is good down to at least -152.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Taysom for 2! 🪜

Small early bet I have it 46 in normal weather but this is trending towards 15mph wind with 30mph gusts and possible rain

@sundaysixpack @ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/AOwwgtQewXb

@ChrisRaybon 2 https://myaction.app/IHUc2sI9vXb

#SundaySixPack

14 mph winds in Chicago are the big driver for me on this under. Have the total at 43.2 as a result.