Mets vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 3, 2024

Mets at Brewers

11:08 pm • ESPN

New York Mets

2-1

4 - 2

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Myers			0.00	0-0
J.Quintana			3.14	0-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 2-1	+1.5	+1.5-205	o7.5+103	+105
Brewers 1-2	u7.5	-1.5+170	u7.5-123	-125

Thursday 11:08 p.m.

October 03, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

NYM +114 (Live)

1.14u

Over 3.5 (Live)+126

1.26u

Under 7.5-120

0.83u

Sharp money dump on the under a few minutes before game time 💰🔒📈 Link to slip: https://x.com/vegasismybitchh/status/1841977255892758979?s=46

MIL -130

NYM +110

1.1u

#ProSystem Fade the public in playoffs Overall: 164-124-0,57% (ROI:26%) Season:4-1-0,80% (ROI:84%)

T.Myers o3.5 Ks-140

0.36u

DraftKings

J.Quintana u3.5 Ks+116

0.5u

MIL -130

0.5u

Fanduel

MIL -122 (F5)

0.5u

Fanduel

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-135

NYM +113

1.13u

Under 7.5-115

$1000.00

NYM +118

1.18u

Under 7.5-115

0.87u

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Thursday’s Wild Card matchup between the Mets and Brewers promises a low-scoring game, with both teams relying heavily on bullpens. Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA, 4.49 xERA) starts for New York, while Tobias Myers (3.00 ERA, 4.11 xERA) pitches for Milwaukee. Starters will likely be limited, turning the game over to dominant bullpens. Expect a cautious contest with runs at a premium.

J.Quintana u4.5 Ks-150

0.75u

Under 7.5-114

0.88u

Under 7.5-120

F.Alvarez To Record 1+ Hits Yes-135

1.35u

Avery

NYM +110

1.1u

Avery

J.Quintana u2.5 BB-140

Avery

J.Quintana u15.5 Outs-165

1.25u

Great +EV from other books that have either pulled this line or have the under at -200 or worse. Elimination game, so Quintana will likely have a short leash. In his last 3 vs MIL he hasn't made it past 5 innings with a full leash.

MIL -130

1.3u

Johnny

Under 7.5-116

0.86u

All Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found in the MoneylineSharps Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/zkcR4EnvbW

MIL -120

Under 7.5-105

0.95u

J.Quintana u15.5 Outs-160

1.6u

Drink up… good to -175. Just not seeing a plausible scenario where he pitches into the sixth inning, unless he is pitching a gem AND pitches efficiently. He just got lit up by the Brewers (4.2 IP, 5 H, 2 BB) and needed 4.6 pitches per PA. Brewers are so patient - they see the most pitches per PA, and have the second lowest chase rate. Quintana not only throws 3.93 pitches per PA, but has the lowest zone% of all qualified pitchers.

Under 7.5-105

0.95u

#ProSystem High scoring teams postseason Overall: 71-25-4,74% (ROI:42%) Season:1-1-0,50% (ROI:-8%)

Under 7.5-105

0.5u

Taking 7.5 too; Bet to 7.5 (-119) or 7 (+100); would reduce risk past -110

Under 8-120

0.5u

Bet to 7.5 (-119) or 7 (+100)

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See more MLB Coverage

The Brewers are 36-27 (.571) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

76% of non-fastball strikeouts for Jackson Chourio are located out of the zone this season -- 13th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 79% of Jose Quintana non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 94th Percentile.

Tobias Myers has allowed a slugging percentage of .711 (32 Total Bases / 45 ABs) on low fastballs this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .403 -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (114/401) against Tobias Myers since last season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	1-2	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Mets	7-6	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 2nd	NYM	W 5-3	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -132
Oct 1st	NYM	L 4-8	-1.5 L	O 7.5	NYM -148
Sep 29th	NYM	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8	NYM +120
Sep 28th	NYM	W 6-0	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -115
Sep 28th	NYM	W 8-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -103

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Quintana, P	94	6	5	0
RJ.Butto, P	12	0.1	0	2
RE.Diaz, P	39	1.2	3	0
LD.Peterson, P	8	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	2-3	1	0	0
2M.Vientos, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
2L.Acuna, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
3B.Nimmo, LF	1-4	1	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	1	1	3
5J.Iglesias, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Iglesias, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Winker, DH	0-2	1	0	0
7S.Marte, RF	1-4	0	0	1
7H.Bader, CF	0-0	0	0	0
8T.Taylor, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8T.Taylor, RF	0-4	0	0	0
9F.Alvarez, C	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Myers, P	66	5	5	0
RT.Megill, P	7	1	1	0
RN.Mears, P	15	1	2	0
RF.Peralta, P	13	1	0	0
RD.Williams, P	34	0.2	1	4
RJ.Ross, P	1	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chourio, LF	1-3	0	0	0
2B.Perkins, CF	1-3	0	0	0
3W.Contreras, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	1-4	0	0	0
5G.Sanchez, C	1-4	0	0	0
6R.Hoskins, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
6J.Bauers, PH	1-2	1	1	1
6J.Bauers, 1B	1-2	1	1	1
7S.Frelick, RF	2-4	1	1	1
8J.Ortiz, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
9B.Turang, 2B	0-3	0	0	0