Cowboys vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 7, 2024

BQ & BOBBYFADES❌

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On paper, the Steelers defense is better than the cowboys offense but I like the cowboys chances tonight. The cowboys need a win tonight to build momentum going into a stronger schedule ahead. Dak has a winning record on Sunday’s (56-37).

By nature, any Arthur Smith led team will skew more run heavy when in neutral gamescrips but Fields and his team are coming off a 22 completion game vs. IND where he had to play from behind in a major trailing gamescript down two touchdowns entering halftime. His next matchup will be up against a banged up Cowboys squad missing edge rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence which is great news for establishing the run. Teams have a -8.4 PROE% against them (29th ranked) while permitting the 2nd highest EPA/Rush and opposing QBs are averaging 17.2 pass completions which ranks 27th in the league. Neutral game is the key here. Should this be true, the Steelers rush the ball at the fifth-highest rate, not ideal for throwing opportunity. Weather will also play a factor which could keep the game closer considering Dallas is weaker at the running game than their passing and it could affect Fields’ accuracy as a byproduct. #PlayerProps

Over in each of his L2 (12 and 13) and he gets a fantastic matchup against the Steelers who’ve allowed the most tackles this season, and have allowed the primary off ball LB to soar over this line in each of the L3 (Speed 13, Henley 12, Singleton 11).

Backing Najee in what’s supposed to be a rainy SNF game. Steelers should be running all night. No Jaylen Warren/Cordarelle Patterson tonight either, it’s going to be all Najee and Fields in the run game. Cowboys run defense hasn’t been great this season. 12th most YPC allowed and they’re also bottom 10 in explosive runs allowed. PIT -3 favorites, hopefully we can get a favorable gamescript too.

Weird one, but Lamb is coming off a three carry game (his second this season). He’s over in 2/4, and was over last season in 10/18. Starting to get a few reps in the backfield too - as the Cowboys traditional running game has been awful. In potentially wet/windy conditions tonight, this could be a solid way to get Lamb the rock. FWIW, the Steelers have allowed a WR over this line each of the last two weeks.

Over in 2/4, but this one shapes up to have Fields on the move. No Warren or Cordarrelle - Najee will get a million touches, but I see them leaning on Fields as well with a few more designed rushes. Throw in some questionable weather which could limit the passing. I whiffed on this read for Jones vs the Cowboys last week, but I stand by what I saw when the Ravens played them - Lamar feasted on RPOs.

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#ProSystem Primetime unders (No Thursday) Overall: 233-154-4,60% (ROI:16%) Season:5-2-0,71% (ROI:37%)

🔬 Ferguson has been targeted 18 times over the last 2 games and now he gets the cover 3 heavy Steelers defense that will bring pressure and force quick passes. With Cook out this game and Ferguson finding holes in the defense and sitting like what made Kelce so good, this is a recipe for success. 🔬Last Week all 16 of Joe Flaccos completions vs the Steelers with around the line of scrimmage or in the middle of the defense. Lamb will move around the offense and draw attention but I’m going up to 6+ receptions here because Ferguson, the 2nd target in this offense should eat the middle of this defense up Sunday night, a weak point in the Steelers defense for many years.

MyCole Pruitt has been ruled out, which matters pretty much only to me. Pruitt has missed the last 2 games, and Freiermuth has posted a snap rate and route participation above 75% in both of them. He's 2nd on the team in target share at 17.4%, behind only George Pickens. Freiermuth has a solid role in the offense, and the playing time is ticking up. Dallas has hardly allowed any production to tight ends, but they've faced an extremely soft TE schedule (Cleveland, New Orleans, Baltimore, New York Giants). David Njoku is the only solid TE the Cowboys have gone up against, and he led Cleveland with 4 catches for 44 yards before leaving early in the 2nd half with an injury. Without Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, Dallas is going to have a tough time getting pressure on Justin Fields, which is big for the passing game. Volume is the main concern, but the pass attempts are ticking up for Fields, and this should be a competitive game. Freiermuth has 4+ catches in every game this season.

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@Stuckey2

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Stuckey 1

Parsons out, Cooks out. J Fields 7th in QB completion %. Mike Tomlin off a loss very very good.

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