Falcons vs. Vikings Odds & Betting Predictions - September 15, 2025

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Kevin O’Connell trusted his second-year kicker in a big spot last week, opting for a 59 yard attempt on 1st down with 11 seconds left and no timeouts. That decision said a lot.. he’d rather take the points with Reichard than risk a sack or turnover from J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season and was only making his first career start. I can picture the Vikings moving the ball just enough to get across midfield a handful of times, with O’Connell leaning on the conservative side to make sure they come away with points. That approach fits the game plan of protecting McCarthy by leaning more on the run game, defense, and.. his kicker. Reichard has already proven to have solid range, hitting 9 of 12 career kicks from 50+ yards, and he gets a boost here at home in the dome. My kicking model also factors in coaching trust, especially for long attempts, and Reichard projects well there. I have him closer to 1.94 made FGs with about a 58% chance to clear 1.5.

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There may be some value on the rush attempts prop for Tyler Allgeier. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 9.19 rush attempts, and the oddsmakers are implying 7.31. The model believes there is a 66% chance he records at least 6.5 rush attempts, so there is value on the over at +110. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/nfl?ref=inf8qq

Imagine taking the spread Win or lose by 7+

Now we get to the other half of the Monday night game and another one where the line has shifted a lot this week — or has it? Minnesota was -5.5 on Sunday at some books but is down to a consensus -3.5 and teetering on the precipice of that valuable key number. I'd wait for Vikings -3. We're already seeing -105 or even +110 on the Minnesota -3.5 ticket so this should hit Vikings -3 at some point, or you can pay a few cents for the alternate line. In this case, the line move makes sense because of the injury report. Atlanta has cleared Drake London and Darnell Mooney from what had been cluster injuries at WR, and that bumps the Falcons almost a point to the spread for me. Meanwhile Minnesota will be without LBs Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel and star LT Christian Darrisaw, so that's a definite downgrade. But even after those swings, I still make Minnesota almost a double-digit home favorite — because these are not equal teams! What is Atlanta better at?? The Vikings offensive line is way better. The loss of Darrisaw is not great but Atlanta's pass rush is awful and the Falcons are down two starters from last year's good line themselves. Minnesota's coaching staff is far better. The Vikings defense is miles and miles better, with Atlanta's defense the clear weak unit in the game. Minnesota's skill players are just as good but healthier. So it comes down to QB then. And though J.J. McCarthy has played exactly one good quarter of NFL football, has Michael Penix proven much more? He's played four games ever, none of them against an opponent even remotely like this nasty, aggressive Brian Flores defense he's about to face on the road in primetime. This is a huge test. Even if you think Penix is better than McCarthy — and we should be very uncertain about that — there's no way you should like Penix with this blocking and play calling against that defense better than McCarthy in the opposite position. Some of those Week 2 overreaction trends favor Atlanta here, and this is our top Luck Rankings play of the week, but I think the line move has already factored that in — and without even really doing much, since -5.5 to -3.5 is mostly across a dead zone. It's easy to look at both teams and see coin flip games in Week 1, but those were not the same type of fight. Atlanta grades out as my No. 28 team right now with Tampa Bay also in the bottom 10 in the awful NFC South, while rosters and coaching put both Minnesota and Chicago fringe top 10 in my rankings. It's a big difference fighting to a coin flip in a battle of great teams versus subpar ones. Raheem Morris has been bad as an underdog and against teams over .500 in his career. Minnesota has a huge coaching advantage, enough to overcome the injuries and get the Vikings safely to 2-0. Grab -3 if you can get it, but otherwise play the best Minnesota number on Sunday night.

Expect him to play more snaps in W2. Nailor receiver metrics drop off a cliff vs zone and Cover 3, which Falcons play at a high rate. Thielen, on other hand, led CAR in Target Share and YPRR vs those coverages in 2024. Plus, we get the “Homecoming” angle.

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There is -110 available at Circa This is the top Luck Rankings play of the week with a "B" grade and a luck-based cover% (LBC%) of 59.2% I want to get the 5 now before its gone.