Jaguars vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - September 23, 2024

Fliff

Late add - tailing @wwiseguys

Don’t let the “noise” that’s it’s a revenge game going against his former team, it’s an awful schematic matchup for Gabe Davis. So far in the two weeks since being on the Jags he is running 41 of his 52 routes (78.8%) out wide on the perimeter -> 83.9% in Week 2 without Evan Engram. And while he’s coming off a 7 target game that looks promising, he’ll now face a Bills defense that plays two-high safety at a top-5 rate & most importantly **permitting the fewest % of targets to opponents lined up out wide (25% compared to 41.5% league average)** The Bills with their pass rush of Greg Rousseau and Von Miller are making it so opposing QBs have little for big-plays to develop (Davis has a 15.7 aDOT) where slot receivers who run short-intermediate routes (Kirk + Strange) get peppered with targets. There’s also a narrative out there that Trevor Lawrence will look to get Christian Kirk going (only 1 target) which should help with more target distribution on the offense. And finally, if any coach knows a player’s strengths and weakness, it’s his former HC Sean McDermott, who was one of the best defensive schemers in the NFL. #PlayerProps

@The_Oddsmaker

@The_Oddsmaker

This number fucks

Game Script

#Tailing @nick_giffen

@GreenDotDaily

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Built using BetAlytics Touchdown dashboard! 🔑 Keon Coleman ATD +300 (FanDuel) 1u Value: B Grade (+4.14% Edge), 38.04% Win Probability. I’m expecting the talented rookie to get more involved tn with a depleted Jags secondary. BOL if you tail or fade! https://BetAlytics.com Promo code: LOCKSELOT for 25% off

Jags outright today baby

FanDuel

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/khalil-shakir-player-prop-prediction-jaguars-vs-bills-monday-night-football-sept-23

Sura

BetRivers

Johnny

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Jaguars offense has not gotten off on the right foot, starting the year 0-2 while only putting up 13 points in their Week 2 loss to Cleveland. Trevor Lawrence has not looked sharp, completing only 51% of his passes with just 382 passing yards and one touchdown across two games. Pressure will continue to build on the Jacksonville offense and particularly Trevor Lawrence, who needs to elevate his play in his fourth season. On the other hand, though, the Jaguars defense has been solid, allowing only 19 points per game, so their defensive unit isn't the reason for their early-season poor records. The Bills' defense has been no different, allowance-wise, having conceded 19 points a game. The same can be said for edge rusher Greg Rousseau, who has made his presence felt: three sacks and a forced fumble. Veteran Von Miller remains very productive into his 35-year-old season, recording two sacks thus far. The secondary has been opportunistic, as well, led by cornerback Ja'Marcus Ingram's two interceptions against Miami, one of which he returned for a score. The extended rest will also work in their favor, having last played on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, and they held Miami to just 10 points in that outing. With both defenses tied for eighth in the NFL in points allowed, this contest shapes up as a prime candidate for the under. What's more, Buffalo's offense has been relying heavily on the run, calling rushing plays on 57.3% of their snaps - the fifth-highest rate in the league. Without a true vertical threat, the Bills are more reliant on grinding out yards, which will help keep the clock running and limit explosive plays. Jacksonville also runs the ball at a top-half rate, utilizing the ground game on 44.76% of plays, contributing to a slower pace overall.

With Engram out last week, Strange replicated his role. Was on the field for 32 of 36 of Lawrence’s dropbacks, running more in the slot/wide than in line. Saw 6 targets and caught 3 passes. He’s not Engram, but he’s clearly the direct replacement for a guy who saw 8.4 targets and 6.7 catches last season. Should be a good spot for him against the Bills who are willing to allow QBs to check down to prevent against the deep pass. Opposing TEs have 14 catches in 2 games against them, with a 30% target share. No Matt Milano is a big hit to their TE coverage as well.

#ProSystem … 1H monday night unders Overall: 78-41-4,66% (ROI:25%) Season:1-1-0,50% (ROI:1%) … 1H extended rest unders Overall: 116-63-3,65% (ROI:25%) Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:102%) … 1H primetime unders Overall: 172-114-3,60% (ROI:15%) Season:2-1-0,67% (ROI:35%)

#ProSystem … 1H winless teams on road Overall: 70-47-17,60% (ROI:15%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) … 1H fade home favs that were road dogs last week Overall: 154-97-6,61% (ROI:19%) Season:2-0-0,100% (ROI:91%)

Bet on Sept 20. Engram hasn’t practiced. Played 76% of snaps in W2, saw 6 targets, 1 in RZ.

Exec Decision

Dogs 0-2 ATS 61% cover rate L20 years.

My exec decision, huge luck difference between these two teams. Getting it before it goes to 5.

#LuckRankings

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🐆🐆🐆🐆🐆MEOW Pick Em #2