Ravens vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 8, 2023

Ravens are 4th in DVOA and Steelers are 25th. This seems like an over reliance on Tomlin Trends, divisional dogs, and Ravens/Steelers history that largely is irrelevant because no Big Ben anymore and Lamar has not played in these matchups since Week 13 of 2021. I’ll nibble on an alt

Gonna man up and trust the trends in this one

Number is 4.5, but we locked our contest line at 3.5, still like the dog and the hook in this matchup. Will explain all circumstances on Sunday night episode of favorites pod.

@ChrisRaybon

DK

Windy under.

See writeup

He’s over in 3/4 this season - just too low of a line, even in the new offense (over in 9/11 last season). A divisional road game is always a tough environment, and I do think PITT can keep it close enough. Plus, throw in some windy conditions that could make it difficult to throw in, and the Steelers have been allowing their opponents to run a ton of plays (70.8 through week 4 is 4th highest). Juicy - but would play it up to -150.

@ChrisRaybon

Big Balls Bet of the Week

Stuckey 1

DK 11:32 Friday.

Bet at Bet365. Would play down to +110.

Too much evidence to ignore backing the underdog here. Plus @Stuckey2 liked it on the @sundaysixpack

Available at FanDuel. I've currently got 13 mile-per-hour winds forecast for this one, and I still have the total up at 42.2. If those winds come down, this will look even more like a value. Mitchell Trubisky will likely start for the Steelers, but Trubisky's EPA per drop back last year (-0.06) was nearly identical to Kenny PIckett's (-0.05). It's not an upgrade, but I don't view it as a downgrade for offense in this game, either. Plus, Trubisky's aDOT was two yards higher, and more downfield throws means more volatility. That's not a bad thing when the total is such an outlier. The Ravens got Tyler Linderbaum back last week and could get Ronnie Stanley back this week, and their defense is banged up. I just don't think this total should be as low as it is, especially if we bake in the potential for the wind projection to go down.

Week 5 Hot Read Auto play above 3 in Ravens Steelers. Pitt home underdog off a loss. This will check every Rah Rah Tomlin trend. Low total. Been waiting all week for this. Fine not knowing about Pickett injury. I want the 4 if it’s there, and Trubisky might be as good as Pickett anyway.