Texas vs. NC State Odds & Betting Predictions - March 18, 2026

Giffen Guide to March Madness: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/nick-giffens-moneyline-rollover-picks-2026-guide-march-madness

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#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

NC St is a 3 point funnel defense and MV takes all of his shots inside (0 3PA on the season) so this is a tougher matchup for him, while Pope/Mark should take a higher rate of 3s here. Projecting him closer to 13.2 points with around a 59% chance he stays under 14.5

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This game is as close as you can get to two teams with similar ratings and similar resumes. However, I think Texas has the schematic edge here and is better in the two categories that seem to matter most in March: rebounding and free throw percentage. These teams met back in November at the Maui Invitational, with Texas coming out on top 102–97. Not a single ounce of defense was played in that game, but we saw how each team was able to produce points. Texas completely picked apart NC State’s switch defense, something their ball screen and iso-heavy offense is built to do, especially with their big wings like Dailyn Swain, who is the best player in this matchup. Since that game, the NC State defense continues falloff a cliff. They rank 136th in defensive efficiency since January 1st and if you look from February 1st to now, that ranking drops even further to 217th. The Wolfpack defense is giving up 1.15 points per possession in transition and 1.12 points per possession in rebound and scramble situations. That’s a nightmare against a Texas offense that is in the 93rd percentile in transition efficiency with 1.35 points per possession, and also scoring 1.23 PPP in rebound and scramble situations. The rebounding really gets highlighted here, as NC State ranked 18th out of 18 ACC schools in defensive rebounding. The Longhorns are top 35 in the country in rebounding and should be able to create second chance looks all game. Meanwhile, while the NC State offense was effective in Maui, the Texas defensive scheme actually takes a big part of NC State’s offense away. The Wolfpack shoot three pointers at the 46th highest rate in the country, and most come from attack and kick opportunities created by Quadir Copeland. However, Texas’ drop coverage completely eliminates their catch and shoot offense. The Longhorns allow attack and kicks at a 1.6% frequency percentile. They simply don’t let teams get threes off. This will force NC State’s offense into a smaller box of options. While the Texas defense is by no means good (it’s actually really bad), this important schematic advantage is worth noting considering NC State posted one of their lowest catch and shoot rates of the season in the first meeting. This game has the makings of another shootout, which creates high variance, but I want to side with the team that generated 13 uncontested three pointers in the first meeting and will have the rebounding edge. Texas will also have the free throw shooting edge, as they ranked second in the SEC at 77.4%. Both teams haven’t been great away from home, but Texas does rank 37 spots higher in Hasla Metrics away from home stat and 152 spots higher in their consistency metric. I’ll take the Longhorns to advance to the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Horns up

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