Bengals vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - December 10, 2024

C. Rush ⬆️ 230.5 Passing Yards (-113 @ FanDuel) THE BLITZ 📽️: 260.74 Pass Yards Cooper Rush has emerged as a reliable fill-in starter for Dallas, demonstrating consistency in recent weeks with an average of 265 passing yards over his last three games. The Bengals' defense presents an enticing matchup for passing overs. Cincinnati ranks 28th in coverage and 27th in pass rush according to PFF, and they’ve struggled to pressure quarterbacks consistently. Their secondary has been vulnerable, giving up 251 passing yards per game (6th most in the league), a 65.2% completion rate, and the 9th highest passer rating (98). Additionally, the Bengals are allowing 28.3 points per game, the 2nd most in the NFL, often forcing shootouts. Dallas’ game script is also likely to favor passing. With Cincinnati’s high-powered offense likely putting up points, the Cowboys may need to abandon the run and rely heavily on Rush to keep pace. This aligns well with his recent form and the Bengals' defensive weaknesses.

J. Ferguson (DAL) Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110 @ FanDuel) THE BLITZ 📽️: 46.04 Rec Yards Jake Ferguson’s return from a two-game absence due to a concussion comes at a crucial time for the Dallas Cowboys. The team’s offense has leaned heavily on tight ends in recent weeks, and Ferguson has proven to be a reliable weapon in the passing game when healthy. Before his injury, he was the second-most trusted receiving option for Dak Prescott, averaging 6.8 targets over his last five games (healthy). 1. Matchup Advantage: Cincinnati's defense has been vulnerable against tight ends, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game (61.3) to the position this season. They also struggle to defend the short and intermediate areas of the field, where Ferguson thrives. 2. Game Script: With the Bengals offense clicking right now, it could force the Cowboys into a pass-heavy game plan. 3. Volume and Role: With Cooper Rush heavily targeting Luke Schoonmaker during Ferguson's absence, it’s clear the Cowboys prioritize the tight end in their offensive scheme. Ferguson’s return should immediately vault him back to the top of the tight end pecking order, and he’s already shown chemistry with Prescott in high-leverage situations. 4. Low Prop Line: A modest line of 37.5 receiving yards undervalues Ferguson’s potential given his usage when healthy and the favorable matchup. He has hit this mark in four of eight this season when healthy and has averaged 44.8 receiving yards over that span. Went back and forth between receptions at plus money and receiving yards, but yards looks like the better play to me.

Couldn’t help myself

1st TD nibbles via @nick_giffen

Avery