Bills vs. Jets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 14, 2025

There may be some value on the receptions prop for Allen Lazard. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 0.99 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 1.66. The model believes there is a 73% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions. If you can get the under at -130 or better, there is some great value here. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/nfl?ref=inf8qq

Action Playbook LIVE Luck Rankings

POTD: There’s too much pointing me in New York’s direction today. The Jets looked really good in Week 1 but fell just short. Buffalo is a tough team to bounce back against, but I think they might just do it. My model actually has the Jets winning outright by 4 points. While early season model outputs don’t have many data points to go off, this is a big discrepancy and a must play. Let’s break down this game. The Bills defense finished Week 1 with the second worst defensive grade of 45.4, and their run defense ranked dead last in the entire league. They finished 25th in run defense last season, so this number isn’t all that shocking. That makes things interesting today considering the Jets ran the ball on 62.9% of snaps in Week 1, first in the NFL. New York’s ground game ranked 5th in rush DVOA after Week 1, a complete 180 from their dead run game last season. With Justin Fields at the helm, this should be a full on rushing attack all season. This is already a bad scenario for the Bills, but on top of that they’re dealing with major defensive injuries. Their best defensive player, Ed Oliver, is out, while Tre’Davious White, Shaq Thompson, and Jordan Hancock are all questionable. Their defense loses a lot of depth if these guys can’t go. Offensively, the Bills are great, but the Jets defense is loaded with talent. Sauce Gardner is confirmed in for today, and the rest of their defense remains healthy. The Jets defense was a total disappointment last year, but this unit is far too good to keep struggling. Yes, the Bills beat the Ravens, but that was a total collapse by Baltimore, Buffalo could easily come into this game sitting 0-1. The Bills were very fortunate in Week 1 while the Jets experienced some misfortune. That’s why I have the Bills ranked 7th in my luck rankings and the Jets sit 25th. The Bills enter today 1-0 and riding high after an emotional home win, but now they have to go on the road to face a scrappy divisional rival. This is too many points. Give me the Jets to cover.

Breece Hall Longest Rush ⬆️ 14.5 Yards (-115 @ DraftKings)(NYJ) Breece Hall had an electric debut against what was supposed to be a good run defense in PIT. He gashed them for 107 rushing yards on 19 carries. He had a longest rush of 18 yards. I think BUF presents as another nice matchup to do some damage. Last season BUF allowed the 14th highest yards per carry to rushers (4.51). More importantly, they allowed the 9th highest explosive yardage percentage in the league (29.5%). An explosive run is defined as a rush of 15 yards or more. Kind of a perfect stat given the line for Breece, eh? In week one, BUF allowed the highest explosive run rate (20.7%) and highest explosive yardage rate (74.8%). Yes, it was against Derrick Henry and a good Ravens offense so we won't over-read into that. It still showed a propensity for this BUF defense to allow the big rushing play. Of RB's with at least 15 carries in week 1, not shockingly, Derrick Henry had the highest explosive run rate (22.2%). But guess who was second? Yup, Breece Hall with an 15.8% explosive run rate. Almost half of Breece's rushing yards were on explosive plays. Hall also ranked 4th lowest in stuff rate, which means the line was creating space and Hall was getting past the line of scrimmage. He faced BUF twice last season and longest rushes of 42 and 17 in those two games. The only concern here is workload, but Breece showed us in week 1 he can make the most of a decent workload.

Projection: 0.42 TDs, -183. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

Luck Rankings Will have another luck-based bet here on Action Playbook LIVE hence only half unit

THE BLITZ is forecasting 20.00 completions for Justin Fields. The oddsmakers' implied projection is 18.10 completions, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 64% of the time resulting in a 29% ROI with expected value of $28.88 (based on a $100 wager). Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/nfl?ref=inf8qq%22%3EEV Analytics!

The Jets were one of the more intriguing teams in Week 1. Justin Fields played great football, and OC Tanner Engstrand's offense looked very intriguing! The Jets were super run heavy, by far most in the league, and Breece Hall ran 19 times for 107 yards. That included runs of 16, 17, and 18 yards, and the Jets saw 7.8% of their outsize volume of runs hit 15 or more yards, good for the second-best rate in the league. Only one other team was even above 5% and that was the Ravens — hey, remind me again who the Ravens played last week? That would be Buffalo of course, New York's new opponent. This is an obvious letdown spot for the Bills after an astonishing comeback and a tough physical Sunday night game, and with a division opponent waiting on Thursday. Buffalo got repeatedly gashed for long runs, and we have every reason to believe the Jets can run on this team. For whatever reason, Breece Hall has been great at home against the Bills — it's been one of his best two or three games each of the past two seasons — but his numbers are inconsistent enough that I'm targeting just those one or two explosive runs. Hall has nine runs of 10 or more yards in his career against Buffalo, most against any opponent, and the same is true for his five 15+ runs and includes runs of 24, 26, 42, and 83 against the Bills. Buffalo allowed 18 players to have a 14+ run last year, with at least one in all but three regular season games. Let's wait for that one explosive run and play Breece Hall over 14.5 longest rush (-110) DraftKings). This is an obvious escalator play too. I call them escalators, not ladders, because escalators do the hard work for you once you reach one step, already approaching the next level for you. If Hall is out in the open 15 yards down the field, why not 20 or 30? You can nibble longest run overs of 20+ at +190, 30 at +425, 40 at +800, and 50 at +1650 all at bet365 and hope for one home run shot.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Breece is one of the best all-around backs in the league, and last year this number would have been too low. Based on his Week 1 usage, though, it’s going to be much tougher for him to consistently clear it this season. New OC Tanner Engstrand (from the Lions) looks more inclined to use a 2–3 way committee. Week 1 backed that up: Hall operated as the clear lead back on early downs and short yardage, Braelon Allen spelled him there, and Isaiah Davis handled most of the passing situations. The Jets had by far the lowest pass rate over expected in Week 1, and as long as Justin Fields is under center, this projects as one of the run heaviest teams in football. That setup caps Hall’s passing game usage, especially since Fields scrambles at one of the highest rates in the league. If Davis keeps dominating passing downs, Hall could actually see less work in trailing game scripts..like this one, where the Jets are 6.5-point underdogs. The ideal outcome for New York is Hall gashing Buffalo on the ground (the Bills just got run over by the Ravens), and if he thrives as a runner, that will cap his receptions upside. If the Jets fall behind, Davis’ role might expand, and Hall’s receiving upside is capped again. It’s a small Week 1 sample, but it’s already enough signal to take a stand here. I project Hall closer to 2.2 receptions with about a 60% chance he stays under 2.5.

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Think the Jets' offense will be able to uphold its end of the scoring bargain here due to their physical run game.