Bills vs. Ravens Odds & Betting Predictions - September 30, 2024

YOLO 🙃

Young gun

🔑 Ravens -0.5 1st Q +120 (DraftKings) 2u Expect the ravens to come out strong early. Especially at home

Only over in 1/3 this season, but the two misses were massive blowouts. Last season, after Joe Brady took over as OC, Allen was over in 7/9. In a big game, that i do like to stay close, I see Allen using his legs.

Max is 3 units i can place. Will add another 3 to counteract ravens pick⏱️

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

SNF Love this spot for Cook tonight. Over in 2/3 games this season, and the Bills are coming off of 2 straight blowout wins where Cook didn’t even get run in the 4Q. Now Buffalo is a 2.5 point underdog on the road at Baltimore. Baltimore runs a lot of 2 high (6th highest rate), and play Cover 4/Cover 6 at top 5 rates in the NFL. Looking at Bills pass catchers vs these coverages last season season, Cook had a 25% TPRR, only behind Diggs. Against 2 high safety looks THIS season, we see that Josh Allen loves to target his RBs, with James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis all having a 23%+ TPRR, with Cook obviously running the majority of the routes amongst these guys. Toss in the fact that this Baltimore run defense is lockdown, we can expect the Bills to lean on their pass game more than they usually would in a neutral gamescript.

Allen has hit this line in 2/3 games and the only one it didn’t hit was the blowout against MIA where they hardly threw the ball. Ravens are allowing over 300 passing yards per game. They’re stout against the run so should be an air attack kind of game for the Bills. Plus getting this at plus money gotta take the value

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My boys

Todays FREE PLAY! Let’s move this record!

#ProSystem ... under system Overall: 185-93-4,67% (ROI:27%) Season:9-4-1,69% (ROI:30%) … prime time moderate dogs no thursdays Overall: 112-62-2,64% (ROI:24%) Season:1-1-0,50% (ROI:-4%) ... close games windy unders Overall: 427-278-7,61% (ROI:17%) Season:4-3-0,57% (ROI:9%)

- Allen is 16-7 in primetime games - Allen is 6-1 in primetime Sunday games; beating Mahomes, Rothlisberger, Rodgers, Tua and after tonight you can add Lamar Jackson to that list - I love how the Bills are being dismissed for dismantling a bad Jaguars team, as well as being overlooked after losing Diggs and Davis. However, I think losing those stars frees up Josh Allen to go to his best option on each throw instead of having to force feed his stars

@nick_giffen

@Stuckey2

BetRivers

Stuckey 1

This should be a really exciting game and our simulations seem to find more overs here in the pass game than unders for Lamar. There aren’t nearly as many Ravens dominate outcomes in the range as usual, and for this reason you have to like the passing game to get over this relatively timid marker. Baltimore has one of the highest schedule adjusted yards per play in the league, and should be very potent in spots where they are forced to turn to the air.

Hasn’t cleared this line this season, and was under in 10/16 last season. aDOT is 6.7 yards, and only 1 of his 22 targets have traveled 20+ air yards. The Bills run two high safeties at a league high rate, and have only allowed one receiver to clear this line.

Bills 3-0 but dogs? PICKEM

Bills lead the league in early-down passing efficiency, per my numbers, and are third on the ground. Ravens' defense is still getting shredded through the air, so think the Bills should be favored in this one.