Browns vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Predictions - October 6, 2024

Late Add

🔑 Browns ML +142 (FanDuel) 2u This is such a let down spot for the commanders. Everyone in the world is all over them, the books don’t lose like that. The Browns offense has looked better and the commanders D is still bad. Love the value here

The Extra Point - @charliedisturco

@ChrisRaybon

As soon as I heard the comparison between Daniels and Lamar Jackson I raced to fade the Commanders by taking Browns +3. Just like in stocks, you sell high when the graph peaks, or in this case the team’s hype peaks

#ProSystem Road dog off away loss Overall: 87-83-1,51% (ROI:33%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) Fade road favs that were just home dogs Overall: 89-101-1,47% (ROI:21%) Season:3-1-0,75% (ROI:66%)

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Daniels is 4th among all QBs in yards per attempt despite having maybe the least impressive and most top heavy WR rooms in all of football. Credit the offense and his throwing ability to create YAC opportunities, and he is also top 7 in YAC%. Every team by the hopeless Raiders had over 30 pass attempts against the Browns this season, and we should expect the same here for WAS. They have to be gaining trust in the QB by now, and their top 2 RBs clearly aren’t 100% coming off a concussion and some missed practice time respectively.

Under in 3/4, but has admittedly toyed with this line with 12, 12, and 13 on the unders. However, this is a gross matchup for him. The Browns run man coverage at the sixth highest rate, and Ertz quite literally has not been targeted vs man this season, out of Daniels’ 22 targets. ADOT running at 7.8 yards, and Delpit is such a tough individual matchup for him.

Lemme go vomit and get back to you

Daniels is over this line in 3 of 4 games – 2 of 4 if you exclude kneels. He’s at 17 designed rush attempts (excl kneels) in four games, and 23 scrambles. Against a tough Cleveland front, I do expect him to keep the ball on option plays, as I expect Brian Robinson to struggle a bit more moving the ball up the middle. And while Daniels has looked tremendous through the air the last three games, those have all come against bottom tier pass defenses. The Browns will be the best defense he’s faced in his young career, and should be able to garner pressure. The Browns are blitzing at the sixth highest rate, and Daniels scrambles on 19% of his dropbacks when blitzed. Overall, I expect Daniels to be more on the move in this one. I have him closer to 11.

Weekly QB INT Picks. Article coming shortly.

MGM

Stuckey 3

Pickem

My model makes this browns +0.5 couple points of value Wash has to come down a bit.

Bet365

Love targeting a mobile QB vs a heavy man coverage team like the Browns. Running lanes open up with defenders having their backs turned deep down the field. Browns have been bad, but have still have able to still generate pressure a decent amount. The Browns blitz at the at the 7th highest rate which should also flush Daniels out. With Myles Garrett lurking there’s a good chance he’ll be forced to run to keep the play/drive alive. Trevor Lawrence recorded a 33 yarder vs the Browns this year. Other than that, they’ve played Dak/Minshew who are not mobile and Daniel Jones where the Giants were chewing clock. 8+ rushes every week, just needs to break one

Grabbing the 3.5 but smaller due to major injury watch for Browns