Chiefs vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - December 25, 2024

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FD

M. Williams ⬇️ 1.5 Reception (-105 @ BetRivers) THE BLITZ 📽️: 1.07 Recs Mike Williams' outlook against the Kansas City Chiefs is limited, especially with George Pickens returning to the lineup. Williams has benefited from Pickens' absence, recording at least three catches in two of the last three games and 15+ receiving yards in each. However, when Pickens has been active, Williams has been a non-factor, going without a reception or target in three consecutive games. Kansas City’s defensive strengths further dampen Williams’ potential. The Chiefs are far more vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the most slot receiving yards (1,523), highest catch rate (78.3%), and most end-zone targets (20) this season. Unfortunately for Williams, he primarily plays on the outside, where the Chiefs’ coverage has been more reliable. Kansas City’s ability to limit boundary receivers, combined with Pittsburgh's likely emphasis on Pickens and Calvin Austin III, makes Williams a long shot to contribute meaningfully. Williams is a risky proposition for any receiving props, particularly with a likely reduction in snap count and targets. I'm looking to fade him here.

J. Warren ⬆️ 2.5 Receptions (-132 @ FanDuel) THE BLITZ 📽️: 2.93 Recs We’re getting solid value at -132 on this prop compared to other books: MGM: -155 Caesars: -160 DraftKings: -150 Hard Rock: -165 BetRivers: -165 Pinnacle: -148 The disparity highlights a clear +EV opportunity, as most books have adjusted this line to reflect Warren’s increasing role and reliability in the passing game. Supporting Metrics: **1. Snap Share Growth:** Warren’s snap share has risen steadily over the last four weeks, hitting 67% in his most recent game. He has firmly established himself as the more dynamic option compared to Najee Harris, particularly in situations requiring pass-catching. This consistent growth in playing time suggests increased opportunities for receptions. **2. Consistency in Production:** Warren has recorded 2+ receptions in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging 2.8 catches per game over that span. Even in games where Pittsburgh’s passing attack has been subpar, Warren has been a reliable outlet for check-downs and designed screens. **3. Quarterback Tendencies:** Russell Wilson's 11.6% check-down rate is the 4th highest among QBs with 250+ dropbacks. This tendency to utilize short passes, especially under pressure, bodes well for Warren’s role as a safety valve, particularly against a strong KC defense. **4. Matchup Considerations:** While the Chiefs have been excellent against running backs in the passing game (allowing the 3rd fewest receptions to the position), game script could force Pittsburgh into more passing situations. The Steelers are 6-point underdogs, making it likely they’ll need to rely on the passing game in the second half, increasing Warren’s chances of clearing this line.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!🎁

KC hasn’t allowed 22 in L4 - Steelers under L2

Bet365

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, aiming for AFC's top seed, face the Steelers after five straight wins, showcasing zero turnovers and offensive efficiency. Mahomes, despite an ankle issue, leads with 3,608 yards. Pittsburgh, reeling from a Ravens loss, struggles with turnovers and a weak run game. Kansas City's defense and offensive firepower make them favorites, while the Steelers lack consistency to compete.

Prophetx

Textbook Tomlin spot… Christmas Card will be up on Twitter @Anderspicks. Merry Christmas to all🫡

DK

@GDAWG5000 and @TheBMatt

@The_Oddsmaker and @nick_giffen

#LuckOver

Have this total at 45.2 because of how well the Chiefs have played as they have gotten competent pass-catchers around Mahomes.

4.39% ev

Week 17 Christmas Lookahead!