Cowboys vs. Raiders Odds & Betting Predictions - November 18, 2025

1.85% ev play to -109

Link in Bio for early access

Geno Smith ⬆️ 2.5 Rush Attempts (-145 @ MGM)(LV) Geno has always been a sneaky runner over his career. He's cleared this mark in 6 of 8 games with at least 40 snaps, which he should easily clear here against this porous defense. And we can't blame them on being kneel downs since Geno is on one of the worst teams in the league (2-7 Raiders). Let's take a look at other QBs that have faced DAL: Hurts: 14 for 62 yards, 2 TD Wilson: 3 for 23 Williams: 5 for 12 Love: 3 for 28 Fields: 7 for 26 Young: 3 for 5 Daniels/Mariota: 10 for 69, TD Nix: 1 for -1 Brissett: 5 for 4, TD So pretty much every QB has run some on this DAL defense. The only one to not reach 3 carries was Nix and it was a complete blowout (44 to 24) so he didn't need to. We are laying some juice, but still like the value here at -145.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Last Monday night I loved the Quincy Williams under 6.5 because he was apparently “benched,” with the caveat that the whole thing could’ve been complete bullshit. Worst case scenario was that he played the full game and 6.5 was just a coin flip. Sure enough he played 100 percent of the snaps like always, the phantom “benching” lit a fire under him, and he turned in one of his best games of the season with 8 tackles. Tonight’s prop is similar, but for a different reason. The Cowboys LB room is extremely volatile heading into this game. This will be Logan Wilson’s Cowboys debut after the trade during their BYE, and I expect him to step right into a full-time role. DeMarvion Overshown also appears healthy enough to finally make his season debut. He should return in a limited role, and Shemar James has played well enough that I don’t think he gets outright benched. There’s also a chance Marist Liufau still mixes in for a handful of snaps. All of that matters because Murray has played 100 percent of the snaps this season, so any dip in playing time is massive. If I project him for 100 percent again, I get him around 5.9 tackles, which is right in line with the number. He opened at 6.5 earlier today, but I was tied up writing the CeeDee prop and working on Week 12, and sharp action drove it down before I could grab it. Realistically, he could end up playing 50 percent of snaps for all we know, but I think something like 85 percent is a fair baseline. Fully prepared for the “worst case scenario” that he still plays 100 percent, which would make this more of a coin flip at this price. But this matchup also leans to the under. The Raiders have provided the third-fewest LB tackle opportunities this year (a very common Geno Smith offense theme), and the Cowboys are expected to face around 7 fewer rush attempts than their season average plus about half a completion fewer. That’s just fewer overall tackle chances. Add in newly acquired Quinnen Williams up front, which could clog things enough to keep runs from reaching the second level, and the fact that Ashton Jeanty leads the league in stuff rate, and you get even more paths to Murray coming in under. So once again we have a Monday Night tackle prop with a pretty wide range of outcomes. Worst case is he still plays 100 percent and it’s a coin flip. Best case is he loses even a few snaps in this messy rotation, which would be huge for the under.

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Projecting him to stay under 6.5 around 58% of the time. Full write up on our site as to how/why I could possibly “fade” a future first ballot Hall of Famer

Have +1210 fair

Borderline Brain Dead

Action Network pod MNF preview

Meant to place once. Will update after

@EvanHAbrams https://myaction.app/q4SKb6L1mYb

5.54% ev play to -101

Have to take a hook vs this Dallas defense.

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@The_Oddsmaker https://myaction.app/IlEcwUOFiYb

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