Jaguars vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2024

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Bears' 3-2 record is misleading, as they've benefited from facing weakened opponents. Their recent blowout win over the Panthers came against an injury-ridden team, and their win against the Rams was aided by missing key players. With a shaky offensive line and struggles against man coverage, the Bears are likely to face a tougher challenge against a more consistent and experienced Jacksonville team.

“Buy low, Sell high”: The hype surrounding the Jags may be at an all time low, and for that reason we will be buying low on them. Give me the Jags, who are used to being in London, to cover the spread

-138 devig odds with 1.37% ev giving us value and projection leans to the over with good history and matchup

We’ve had five Rookie QBs play international games. They were 0-5 SU and ATS, with 4 of the 5 QBs losing by 14+ points

Best Bet (1-4 YTD)

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-6-player-prop-picks-lamar-jackson-jonathan-mingo

Giving out on Prop Drop

No injury designation going into the week - even if Bigsby eats into his snap count (and he will), I expect that to be in primarily running downs. Etienne should still get the receiving work. over in 3/5 this season - and this is a sneaky solid spot. The Bears have allowed 5 RBs to clear this line in 5 games (only individual game with non was vs IND - Richardson low target rate to RBs).

🔬#1 in yards after contact having put up 73,90 & 101 whenever given a chance this season, Bigsby now gets a chicago defense that has allowed- Chuba: 97, Kyren 94, JT 110, & Pollard 82. 🔬Teams run overseas! Just like we were on Aaron jones attempts last week, teams want to get in and out of overseas games quickly, without injuries and with a win. Defenses have even seen dips in tackling after the travel over the pond. 🔬Bigsby just needs 7-10 attempts to get 40 yards no sweat (his over under attempts is 8.5 with heavy juice on the over at -145) 🔬Coach Pederson said Etienne is still their guy, but with his job on the line he can’t afford to ignore what he’s seeing on the field from Bigsby. (Coach speak index highlights that Pederson has only a 38% rate of telling the truth as far as depth chart goes)

@ChrisRaybon

Lawrence finally had a solid game in Week 5, torching Indianapolis for 371 yards while completing 28 of 34 attempts. The Colts have been getting destroyed through the air this season (4th-most passing yards per game). More importantly, they pressured Lawrence just 1 time. Lawrence has been one of the worst quarterbacks against pressure this season. Among QBs with at least 25 dropbacks, Lawrence has the 6th-lowest adjusted completion rate, the 4th-lowest completion percentage over expectation, and the 4th-lowest yards per attempt. Chicago has the 5th-highest pressure rate in the league. They're allowing the 6th-fewest passing yards per game and the 7th-lowest yards per attempt. The Bears have held opponents to the lowest passer rating. It's a challenging matchup for a quarterback who averaged 182 yards per game before playing the Colts.

Love this spot for Keenan as Jacksonville has been brutal covering slot WRs all year. Jags play man at the second highest rate and have been running Darnell Savage at the slot corner who just simply can’t hang with these WRs. Jax has 2 great edge rushers in Allen/Walker that will generate pressure and force the ball out quick to his security blanket Keenan Allen who has been way more efficient in man coverage this season. Slot WRs vs the Jags👇🏻 Josh Downs: 12 Ts, 9Rs 69 yards Khalil Shakir: 6 Ts, 6Rs, 72 yards Stefan Diggs: 9 Ts, 5Rs, 69 yards Elijah Moore 8 Ts, 6Ts, 44 yards Waddle / Hill combined for 124 yards

FanDuel

Stuckey 2

Caught only 4 last week in a game Lawrence had 28 completions vs IND No. 24 pass D. Lawrence + Mac averaging 19.6 comp/g and now face CHI No. 2 pass D. Kirk under 4.5 rec (and targets) in 3-of-5 TE Engram expected back,which adds slot/underneath target competition. Proj 3.7

From podcast. Out now. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-action-network-sports-betting-podcast/id1004530793?i=1000672471543

Over in last two games and three out of four games overall. Has been extremely effective running the ball, racking up 7 carries for 90 yards against Houston two weeks ago, following that up with 13 carries for 101 yards last weekend. Now gets the Bears, who are one of the top defenses against the pass, but bear the bottom against the run.

We took Kirk at this number a few weeks ago and he came through for us. He's covered in 4/5 games this season and 15/16 since week 2 of last season. He primarily runs out of the slot, so he avoids the Jaylon Johnson MU on the outside. Kyler Gordon is CHI nickel and he's solid but averages a mediocre 62.5 COV grade. A lot of Kirk's long receptions/targets are over the middle of the field and starting safety Jaquan Brisker is out. CHI run zone at the #6 highest rate in the league: - ADOT vs. man: 8.2 - ADOT vs. zone: 18.0 (leads JAX) Kirk has played two other zone heavy defenses (BUF and IND) and recorded an 18, 24, and 61 yard catch in those two games. SLWR vs. CHI: - Jalen Coker: 31 LR - Tutu Atwell: 25 LR - Josh Downs: 13 LR - Stefon Diggs: 21 LR - Tyler Boyd: 11 LR 3/5 SLWR above recorded a 20+ yard reception vs. CHI but only Atwell has a similar ADOT to Kirk. Kirk also leads JAX in Air Yard % (31.12%). BTJ has a really tough MU outside, toughest he's seen so far in his career, so JAX may have to lean on Kirk more and we just need one catch.