Jaguars vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 29, 2023

Jaguars at Steelers

5:00 pm • CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars

0-1

20 - 10

Pittsburgh Steelers

1-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Jaguars 0-1	-2	-2.5-110	o40.5-115	-132
Steelers 1-0	u40.5	+2.5-110	u40.5-105	+112

Sunday 5:00 p.m.

October 29, 2023

Acrisure StadiumPittsburgh

JAC -2.5-110

PIT +2.5-110

C.Ridley o49.5 Rec Yds-129

0.78u

Everyone is a Christian Kirk fan now huh

JAC -130

PIT +2-109

1.64u

JAC -124

0.81u

PIT +2-109

1.09u

Projection: +0.4. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

PIT +2.5+100

0.5u

Took the hook for half a unit after putting full unit on 2 (prolly bet it too early and should have waited; did not get the best of the number on this game).

JAC -125

0.8u

JAC -0.5 (1Q)+136

0.68u

PIT +125 (4Q)

0.5u

C.Heyward o18.5 Rec Yds-114

T.Etienne o16.5 Rush Att-130

Over in 5/7 games, with an explainable miss against the Chiefs (trailing most of the game) and a weird gamescript last week vs NO. You can run on PIT: 19th in DVOA, per FTN, compared to 7th vs the pass. And their struggles on offense/inability to sustain long drives lends to opponents running a ton of plays: 69 opp plays per game is second most, and 25.5 opp RB rush attempts is also second. Plus, the weather forecast looks eh.

C.Kirk o54.5 Rec Yds-115

Under 41-110

0.91u

C.Ridley o51.5 Rec Yds-115

JAC -125 (1H)

JAC -2.5-110

PIT +2.5-105

$105.00

PIT +128

0.8u

Available at FanDuel. I'm a big fan of the Jags and have bet them plenty since the beginning of last year. This just seems a bit too low on Pittsburgh, given how they've played. Ignoring priors, Pittsburgh ranks 21st in my model's offensive power rankings despite playing without Diontae Johnson for most of the season. That's worse than Jacksonville, and the two defenses have actually produced pretty similar numbers thus far. So, to me, it's clear that Jacksonville is the better team. I just don't know if it's enough to justify being 2.5-point road favorites against a team that has truly played solid football this year. My model makes this game a toss-up, so I'll take the +128 on the Steelers.

PIT +2-110

As discussed with @SimonHunterNFL on Sunday episode of @TheFavoritesPodcast. Steelers as a home dog will always be an early play.

Featured Insight
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 45.0% of pass attempts on their opponent's side of the field since Week 4 -- tied for ninth-best in NFL. Steelers have allowed successful plays on 53.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since Week 4 -- sixth-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
Steelers QBs have a 66.8 passer rating when their QB was under pressure this season -- ninth-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed a passer rating of 64.7 when the opposing QB was under pressure this season -- 10th-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Steelers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Steelers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Steelers are 5-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Steelers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Steelers' 8 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Steelers	11-6	6-2	5-4	5-3	6-3
Jaguars	10-7	4-3	5-3	1-3	9-4

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Steelers	8-9	2-6	6-3	4-4	4-5
Jaguars	9-8	3-4	4-4	3-1	6-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Steelers	10-7	N/A	N/A	5-3	5-4
Jaguars	4-13	N/A	N/A	2-2	2-11

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 22nd	@LA	W 24-17	+3 W	U 43.5	PIT +144
Oct 8th	BAL	W 17-10	+5 W	U 38.5	PIT +188
Oct 1st	@HOU	L 6-30	-3 L	U 41.5	HOU -150
Sep 25th	@LV	W 23-18	+3 W	U 43.5	PIT +130
Sep 19th	CLE	W 26-22	+2.5 W	O 39	PIT +112

Jaguars

Total

Steelers

377

Total Yards

261

Total Plays

5.8

Yards Per Play

4.1

Jaguars

Passing

Steelers

292

YDS

211

24/32

Comps/Atts

25/43

7.743

YPA

4.152

1/1

TDs/INTs

1/2

3/21

Sacks/Yards

3/20

Jaguars

Rushing

Steelers

106

Rush Yards

Attempts

3.533

YPC

3.889

TDs

Jaguars

Turnovers

Steelers

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Jaguars

Efficiency

Steelers

0/3 0%

Redzone

0/1 0%

6/13 0%

3rd Down

3/12 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

0/2 0%

Jaguars

First Downs

Steelers

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Jaguars

Misc

Steelers

6/72

Penalties/Yards

6/52

34:16

Possession

25:44

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MatchupOverUnder
Jaguars 0-1	o20.5-120	u20.5-105
Steelers 1-0	o20.5+105	u20.5-136

Jaguars vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 29, 2023

Jaguars at Steelers

Jacksonville Jaguars

Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaguars at Steelers Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

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Jaguars

Steelers

Jaguars vs. Steelers Previews & Analysis

Koerner's Week 9 Pick'em & Confidence Ratings

How to Bet Every Game, Every Team in Week 8

NFL WEEK 8 REACTIONS & Early NFL Week 9 Predictions | NFL Picks | The Favorites

NFL Best Bets for Sunday's Late Slate

Jaguars vs. Steelers Props

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Prop Odds Comparison

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Jaguars vs. Steelers Public Betting Percentages

Jaguars

Public

Steelers

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Jaguars vs. Steelers Odds Comparison

Jaguars at Steelers Team Totals