Lions vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2025

Goff

Supposed to 1 bet only. Will update post game

SNF SGP FD Boost Worthy 5+ Receptions Brashard Smith 2+ Receptions Mahomes 25+ Rushing St. Brown 70+ Receiving St. Brown OR Worthy ATD https://x.com/thepropfessor_/status/1977516002238673002?s=46

Wrong line. Should be 70.5 -114

Fully expect Kalif Raymond (questionable) to suit up and continue splitting WR3 duties but want to lock it in at this price just in case Raymond is actually ruled out. Would price this closer to +400 in that scenario

I have the Lions rated as the best team in the NFL, but I have the Chiefs very close behind at third. Kansas City enters this matchup at 2-3, coming off a loss to the Jaguars. However, even though we were on Jacksonville in that game, I actually thought the Chiefs were the better team and simply got unlucky. According to our metrics, Kansas City ranks as the 4th most unlucky team in the league this season, while Detroit sits 8th in our luck rankings. The “voodoo” Chiefs luck might have run out, but don’t get it twisted, this team is still elite. Our model projects the Chiefs to win this game 28.23–22.80, with a fair spread of -5.43. Despite the narrative that their offense has regressed, Kansas City still ranks 6th in both offensive DVOA and EPA per play. A big reason for that is their improved pass protection for Patrick Mahomes. After ranking just 17th in pass-blocking grade last year, they’ve jumped into the top 5 this season. Their run game has also taken a big step forward, ranking 6th in run grade. The Lions defense could be in trouble today. They’ll be without key secondary pieces DJ Reed and Terrion Arnold, while Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph are both questionable. This could be a very banged up unit today. We saw last season just how bad this defense can get when injuries pile up. Over the final few games, they were statistically the worst defense in football. Offensively, Detroit is obviously elite, but they’ve struggled on the road, and Jared Goff’s outdoor splits are glaring. There’s a significant drop off in production when he plays outdoors, averaging 7.3 adjusted net yards per attempt indoors compared to just 5.9 outdoors. His success rate falls from 59% to 43%. Since 2022, Goff is averaging one full passing touchdown fewer per game on the road (1.3 vs. 2.3) and 1.1 fewer adjusted net yards per attempt (7.6 vs. 8.7). Arrowhead is already one of the toughest environments in football, and when you add in the outdoor factor, it’s hard to imagine Goff playing at his best. Kansas City’s secondary remains elite, ranking second in coverage grade. While Dan Campbell has done a phenomenal job with the Lions, there’s no coach I trust more than Andy Reid, especially in a must win spot at home. I’m backing the Chiefs.

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Amon-Ra is over 4/5 and in four straight since the W1 beatdown from the Packers - AVG 81.4 YPG on 7.0 REC / 8.2 TRG. KC rank #6 in cover-2 and Amon-Ra leads DET with a 0.30 TPRR and 3.33 YPRR vs. cover-2 this season (45.5% 1Read%). He does lead DET in slot routes but his alignment is pretty 50/50 between the slot/wide - KC does rank #11 in slot TRG% and #1 in slot 1Read%. KC ranks #6 in Blitz% and Amon-Ra's #s spike even higher vs. the blitz - **0.38 TPRR / 6.65 YPRR.** He hasn't faced a T10 team in blitz% this season but last year he went 3/4 on this line and the only miss was a game they won 47-9. In the other three games, he AVG 8.2 REC / 11.0 TRG / 102.7 YPG. In 2023, he was over 7/8 games - AVG 8.3 REC / 10.5 TRG / 108.0 YPG. In games he has 6+ REC, he's over this line in 12/16 games since the start of 2024 - 6+ REC in 10/12 vs. T10 blitz% since 2023.

I really wanted to bet Lions +2.5 here in what looks like one of the games of the year. The Chiefs play on short rest after a letdown loss on Monday night, and there's too much obvious narrative for "It's the Chiefs, they can't fall to 2-4" nonsense. The Ravens couldn't fall to 1-4 either, but here we are — sports are weird sometimes, and football is hard. Speaking of the Ravens, everyone always gets excited for that matchup with the Chiefs, expecting Baltimore to dominate in the trenches, run the football on Kansas City, control the clock, limit mistakes, and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. The Ravens never remember to actually do that against the Chiefs — but isn't that the perfect script for Detroit? The Chiefs defense hasn't shown a consistent ability to get off the field on third downs, and the Lions will want to keep Mahomes sidelined with long drives. Are we sure Detroit is capable of that, though? For all the talk of the Lions as the best team in the league, they're road underdogs against a sub-.500 team for a reason. Detroit was dominated by the Packers in the opener but then beat up on the Bears, Ravens, Bengals, and Browns. The Baltimore win looks far less impressive in hindsight given what other teams have done to the Ravens, and those other three opponents have at least one unit that's been terrible. What have the Lions really proven? The injuries are the other big concern with Detroit, particularly cluster injuries on the offensive line and in the secondary. T Taylor Decker is out again as Detroit's young interior continues to struggle some, so that could hurt the Lions' ability to control the game via the run. The Lions are also without both of their top corners, Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed. That's enough reason to stay away from picking the Lions, but it sets up well for a great trends spot on the under. The Lions will want to keep the Chiefs offense sidelined — but Kansas City will want to do the same against Detroit's offense! Often when two great offenses matchup, we expect fireworks, but the reality is that both teams just want to bleed the clock out and try to give their guys the ball last and a chance for the win. Both of these teams are capable of sustaining long, grueling drives. The Chiefs are running the ball better lately and should continue to find success in their short passing game, effectively an extension of their run game. Both teams are seeing high Success Rate offensively, which sets up for long 10, 12, 14-play drives. This is the sort of game where we could get to halftime and both teams have scored on every possession but we've only had five or six possessions and it's 13-10 in a competitive, ruthlessly efficient affair. In the end, this is a trends pick as much as anything else. This total was 48.5 on the look-ahead but has been bet up all week. Since 2017, NFL totals over 52 that rise by more than a point are 59% to the under. High totals have also been a spot to go under with Jared Goff, the most profitable active QB at 61% to the under in games with a total at 51 or above. Non-Thursday primetime unders have hit at a 61% clip since 2019, and Patrick Mahomes home unders are 62% for his career. We could also see a windy night game, and games with winds of at least 9mph are 61% to the under over the last half decade. This will be sweaty and uncomfortable as good as both offenses are, but this is a Luck Rankings under too, so let's grab the Under 53 and sweat it out. The last key number going up is 54 and it's doubtful this total gets past that at this point, so 53 feels like a peak to grab before the total drops

@GDAWG5000 https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb

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Just a stupid line for a Sun God TD when he’s +105 to +110 everywhere else.

@Stuckey2 https://myaction.app/62yRjm1UlXb

THE BLITZ is forecasting 6.88 rush attempts for Kareem Hunt compared to 9.62 rush attempts implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 78% of the time, resulting in a 40% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $50.25. (This play is good down to at least -210.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@sundaysixpack @Stuckey2 https://myaction.app/S6McBO2wkXb

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There may be some value on the rush attempts prop for Jahmyr Gibbs. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 13.33 rush attempts, and the oddsmakers are implying 16.55. The model believes there is a 70% chance he records fewer than 15.5 rush attempts. If you can get the under at -109 or better, there is some great value here. (This play is good down to at least -158.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Lions +2 is the honey trap of the week. 🍯

Not looking to fade Kansas City now, but my numbers have Detroit as favored due to how filthy they've been this year, whether at home or on the road. The secondary is super banged up, though, which is my biggest concern in backing the Lions. Still like it enough to take it.