Packers vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - November 27, 2025

Boyd / FanDuel

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@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/IPjBSPwqCYb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/IPjBSPwqCYb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/IPjBSPwqCYb

But don't worry, we're playing Jahmyr Gibbs too — just as a receiver! The Packers have allowed at least four receptions to opposing RBs in 8-of-11 games. In fact, they've allowed exactly four or five RB catches seven times with one huge outlier — 14 to the Lions back in Week 1. Gibbs had 10 catches in that one, and he's running more routes with LaPorta out. Gibbs has been the second-highest Detroit player in first-read target shares each of the last two weeks, and the Packers tend to bleed RB catches because of their style of defense leaving things open underneath. Gibbs has four games of 5+ receptions in all three NFL seasons, and that looks to be on the table here so play 5+ receptions at +150 (bet365). He's had five games in his career with 7+ catches, including last time against the Packers with 10 and last week against the Giants with 11, so play 7+ receptions at +600 (bet365). Gibbs is also +190 to record the most receiving yards by a RB on Thanksgiving at DraftKings. I like him as a clear favorite there, with Chase Brown the most likely threat.

But don't worry, we're playing Jahmyr Gibbs too — just as a receiver! The Packers have allowed at least four receptions to opposing RBs in 8-of-11 games. In fact, they've allowed exactly four or five RB catches seven times with one huge outlier — 14 to the Lions back in Week 1. Gibbs had 10 catches in that one, and he's running more routes with LaPorta out. Gibbs has been the second-highest Detroit player in first-read target shares each of the last two weeks, and the Packers tend to bleed RB catches because of their style of defense leaving things open underneath. Gibbs has four games of 5+ receptions in all three NFL seasons, and that looks to be on the table here so play 5+ receptions at +150 (bet365). He's had five games in his career with 7+ catches, including last time against the Packers with 10 and last week against the Giants with 11, so play 7+ receptions at +600 (bet365). Gibbs is also +190 to record the most receiving yards by a RB on Thanksgiving at DraftKings. I like him as a clear favorite there, with Chase Brown the most likely threat.

Green Bay defeated Detroit way back in the Week 1 season opener, but the Lions won six of the previous seven in this division rivalry, and this looks a great spot for them to add to their recent dominance. The Lions are just a little bit better at, well, mostly everything. Detroit is a couple spots better by DVOA on both offense and defense, and well ahead in special teams. The Lions are also healthier right now, with Green Bay's offense particularly banged up and struggling to find a rhythm with Tucker Kraft out, the receiving corps shorthanded, and Josh Jacobs injured. We know both of these teams want to run the ball, but right now, Detroit has the advantage both ways to that end. The Lions rank 8th in Rushing DVOA offensively, top quarter of the league, while the Packers run defense sits right at league average (16th). Meanwhile, Green Bay sits at 17th in Rushing DVOA on offense, while the Lions are again top 10 in 9th. That's not a great equation for Packers bettors when we know how run-heavy both offenses prefer to skew, especially with so much of the Packers run game typically flowing through Jacobs and his status unclear. Detroit's offense can also pick at other Green Bay defensive weaknesses. The Packers allow opponents to access the middle of the field with relative frequency — they rank 27th in EPA per play defending that part of the field, but the Lions attack that area the second most of any team and rank top 10 in EPA per play. Green Bay's defense also funnels passes short, and that's where Detroit lives, top five in frequency and No. 1 in EPA per play. Yes, that sound you just heard was Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs attacking in space all Thanksgiving long. These are the top two defenses at home this season, but, of course, only Detroit is at home. The Lions rank first by DVOA at Ford Field, while the Packers drop all the way to 22nd on the road, fringe bottom 10. Jared Goff continues to be nearly invincible indoors with the Lions, now 36-14-1 (72%) against the spread (ATS) in his career. On Thanksgiving, the trends say to fade the Lions as underdogs (4-10 ATS over the past two decades) but back them as favorites at 4-2 ATS, covering by 6.6 PPG. Non-Cowboys favorites on Thanksgiving are 31-11 ATS, covering 74% of the time. It's a gift to get this line below a field goal. Detroit is the better side, and we love sides on Thanksgiving. Detroit's last 10 wins have been by six or more points, so I wouldn't be afraid to back Lions -3 if it gets back there, but I'm happy to take Lions -2.5 below the key number.

I wanted Lions RB overs last week against the Giants; I leaned Jahmyr Gibbs between the two options, but didn't pull the trigger and missed out on a monster day. It sure looks like Gibbs is the guy now with Dan Campbell calling plays — and only five and six carries for David Montgomery the past two weeks — but be careful. Montgomery's snaps are still there, but his power rushing attack hasn't fit the style of attack as well; Gibbs' snaps are indeed up a bit, but that looks more like a symptom of increased 21 personnel, with two backs on the field and Sam LaPorta hurt. Last week looked like a Gibbs week because the Giants are so bad defending outside runs — and boy, did we see it! — but the Lions are actually better running inside, top eight by EPA per play versus bottom eight outside. The Packers are also far worse defending inside runs, bottom 10 versus fringe top-five outside. That could make this more of a Montgomery game, and he's been the guy against the Packers. Even with Gibbs on the team, Montgomery has racked up 11, 14, 15, 17 and 32 carries in five games against Green Bay, averaging 17.8 carries for 68 yards. It's volume I want for Monty, but 10+ rushing attempts at -125 doesn't feel worth it with his lower volume lately. But in these three season with Gibbs, Montgomery has a touchdown in 23-of-30 games (77%) when he does have double-digit carries, so play an Anytime Touchdown instead at +140 (bet365). As for rushing attempts, skip the median outcome and take a shot on the high end in case the Lions find success inside and continue to pound the run game with Knuckles: 15+ rush attempts at +700 (bet365).

I wanted Lions RB overs last week against the Giants; I leaned Jahmyr Gibbs between the two options, but didn't pull the trigger and missed out on a monster day. It sure looks like Gibbs is the guy now with Dan Campbell calling plays — and only five and six carries for David Montgomery the past two weeks — but be careful. Montgomery's snaps are still there, but his power rushing attack hasn't fit the style of attack as well; Gibbs' snaps are indeed up a bit, but that looks more like a symptom of increased 21 personnel, with two backs on the field and Sam LaPorta hurt. Last week looked like a Gibbs week because the Giants are so bad defending outside runs — and boy, did we see it! — but the Lions are actually better running inside, top eight by EPA per play versus bottom eight outside. The Packers are also far worse defending inside runs, bottom 10 versus fringe top-five outside. That could make this more of a Montgomery game, and he's been the guy against the Packers. Even with Gibbs on the team, Montgomery has racked up 11, 14, 15, 17 and 32 carries in five games against Green Bay, averaging 17.8 carries for 68 yards. It's volume I want for Monty, but 10+ rushing attempts at -125 doesn't feel worth it with his lower volume lately. But in these three season with Gibbs, Montgomery has a touchdown in 23-of-30 games (77%) when he does have double-digit carries, so play an Anytime Touchdown instead at +140 (bet365). As for rushing attempts, skip the median outcome and take a shot on the high end in case the Lions find success inside and continue to pound the run game with Knuckles: 15+ rush attempts at +700 (bet365).