Bills vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - January 17, 2026

I am officially putting the Broncos on fraud watch. We're thinking about this team all wrong. I keep seeing Denver grouped in with Seattle and Houston as a defense-only juggernaut and that's just now what this team has been at all for half a season. Since Week 11 (all stats excluding Week 18), the Broncos are better offensively than you're probably giving them credit for — and way, WAY worse defensively. The offense ranks 7th by DVOA during that stretch and could be a saving grace, but the defense has plummeted all the way to 18th, and it has the same rating in games against teams in the top half of the league over the full season. In the first nine weeks this season, Denver ranked top-six against both the run and the pass; over the final nine weeks, the Broncos finished outside the top-12 at both. Those patterns continued even once the overrated Patrick Surtain returned healthy to the lineup, and it's not a new pattern either. Last season this same defense dropped to 14th in DVOA over the exact same stretch to close the season. The defense has also fallen off mightily against top-12 offenses, allowing almost 28 PPG in those matchups. Denver is the 1-seed, but the Broncos trailed in all but two wins this season and got a flurry of one-score victories. Flip those usually coin-flip outcomes and Denver goes 5-12 this year, bottom of the AFC. Bo Nix is 1-8 in his career against winning teams that score over 17 points. Sean Payton has lost four of his last five playoff games, three as a home favorite, with the only win over an 8-8 Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky squad. The Broncos are not your typical 1-seed. Over the past two seasons, Denver has played eight games against teams that finished top 10 by DVOA. The Broncos went 1-7 in those games with an awful -83 point differential. We've been waiting all season for an opportunity to fade this team in this spot as an overrated 1-seed — the question is whether Buffalo is the right team to ride with. The Bills are a great offense and rank 8th by DVOA so they fit those trends above, but Buffalo has struggled on the road for years and comes in with a slew of injuries, though the potential return of Ed Oliver and Curtis Samuel should help. Josh Allen comes in banged up too, but this is the game Buffalo has rebuilt itself for. It will be a tough matchup for Allen against a ferocious pass rush and tough secondary, especially with so few receivers, but the Bills are not a one-man team anymore. Buffalo is at its best when it leans into its power run game, and the Bills can control the clock and attack the heart of this Denver defense that way. The Broncos funnel opponent runners inside but rank 22nd by EPA per play there compared to 2nd on outside runs. That's typically a winning strategy since outside runs can be more dangerous and explosive. But that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do with James Cook and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bills are below league average running outside but rank 2nd on inside runs. Cook and Allen should be in for big games, and don't forget about Buffalo's valuable tush push with Allen in short yardage situations. Denver faced only one opponent all season in the top quarter of the league in rushing, and Jonathan Taylor ran 25 times for 165 yards in a Colts win. And the Bills aren't just a good rushing team �� they rank 2nd in DVOA and have the league's leading rusher in Cook. There's reason to believe Buffalo's defense can hang too. The Bills rank top five on the season in EPA per play defending 11 personnel but fall apart against 12 or 21, but Denver doesn't have the RB or TE depth to attack from diverse personnel. Instead, the Broncos feature a ton of short passing, but Buffalo ranks top five against short passes by EPA. You beat the Bills defense by running the ball, and that's not Denver's strength, nor their m.o. The Broncos are actually one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. We just saw these teams play in last year's playoffs, and it was ugly for Denver. The Broncos hit an early bomb, then gave up 31 straight points. Buffalo finished in the 95th percentile or better EPA and Success Rate, doubling up Denver in first downs and more than doubling them in yardage. The Bills ran 31 more plays with 42 minutes of possession as Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. That's the exact script for these Bills, and it's a version of the team that frankly didn't exist a couple years ago. Historic trends tell us to fade favorites in the Divisional Round, with bettors too focused on past record and not enough on what a team has become. Favorites that won over 75% of their regular season games are just 18-35 ATS this round (34%) over the past two decades, and 1-seeds after a bye are just 15-19-1 ATS (34%), including an ugly 3-10 ATS and 6-7 SU as six-point favorites or worse like Denver. And after all that, we haven't even talked about the biggest mismatch of the weekend — Josh Allen versus Bo Nix. Allen is the best QB in the playoffs, maybe in football, and Nix is the worst quarterback left in the postseason. Allen can handle the Denver pass rush and add value in the run game, while Nix has yet to prove his mettle in big games and is far worse against zone in his career. He could struggle with Sean McDermott's coverages, especially when McDermott disguises things to confuse Nix. When Allen is anything under a field goal favorite in his career, he's 34-19-2 ATS, covering 64% of the time. When Allen faces a defense that allows 20 PPG or less, he's even better at 29-10-1 ATS. That's just ahead of Tom Brady among all players over the last two decades. Translation: elite quarterbacks are going to find a way to score some points, even against your great defense, because elite quarterback equals elite offense, and elite offense beats elite defense. Ready for one last killer trend? Just combine those two. When Josh Allen is under a field goal favorite facing a defense that allows 10 PPG or less, he's a ridiculous 19-3-1 ATS in his career. That's an insane 86% cover rate, and Allen has won 14 of his last 16 such games outright — all but those two memorable Chiefs playoff losses. That trend will apply next round too, by the way, and would against Seattle in a Super Bowl too. I'm ready to buy Allen and Buffalo stock. Start with the Bills moneyline at -102 (FanDuel) to get the win, but we're not stopping there. The Bills have scored at least 24 points in nine of Allen's last 10 playoff games, so over 23.5 is a no brainer at +100 (DraftKings) against this overrated Denver defense. Buffalo averages 29.6 PPG in those games, so play 27+ points too at +200 (DraftKings), a number Allen's Bills have hit eight of the last 10 playoff games. With the Seattle and New England games both expected to be lower-scoring, Buffalo could end up with the highest score of the weekend. Bet them at +800 to do so (FanDuel) and hope the Chicago weather dampens the Rams-Bears game to give us a shot. Buffalo has won eight of its 13 games this season by at least a touchdown and over half of their wins are by double digits, including wins by 19, 20, 27, and 31. If we expect the Bills to score and think Denver might struggle to do so, this could get ugly. Last year in this spot, we smashed Bills alts at -7.5, all the way to -23.5 at +520, so let's run it back and go for the double. If the Bills do win, they may win by margin. Bet Bills -5.5 at +225 and Bills -9.5 at +450, and sprinkle a bit on Buffalo -16.5 at +900 too in case this really gets away from Denver (all FanDuel). Is it finally Buffalo's time? It is on Saturday.

I am officially putting the Broncos on fraud watch. We're thinking about this team all wrong. I keep seeing Denver grouped in with Seattle and Houston as a defense-only juggernaut and that's just now what this team has been at all for half a season. Since Week 11 (all stats excluding Week 18), the Broncos are better offensively than you're probably giving them credit for — and way, WAY worse defensively. The offense ranks 7th by DVOA during that stretch and could be a saving grace, but the defense has plummeted all the way to 18th, and it has the same rating in games against teams in the top half of the league over the full season. In the first nine weeks this season, Denver ranked top-six against both the run and the pass; over the final nine weeks, the Broncos finished outside the top-12 at both. Those patterns continued even once the overrated Patrick Surtain returned healthy to the lineup, and it's not a new pattern either. Last season this same defense dropped to 14th in DVOA over the exact same stretch to close the season. The defense has also fallen off mightily against top-12 offenses, allowing almost 28 PPG in those matchups. Denver is the 1-seed, but the Broncos trailed in all but two wins this season and got a flurry of one-score victories. Flip those usually coin-flip outcomes and Denver goes 5-12 this year, bottom of the AFC. Bo Nix is 1-8 in his career against winning teams that score over 17 points. Sean Payton has lost four of his last five playoff games, three as a home favorite, with the only win over an 8-8 Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky squad. The Broncos are not your typical 1-seed. Over the past two seasons, Denver has played eight games against teams that finished top 10 by DVOA. The Broncos went 1-7 in those games with an awful -83 point differential. We've been waiting all season for an opportunity to fade this team in this spot as an overrated 1-seed — the question is whether Buffalo is the right team to ride with. The Bills are a great offense and rank 8th by DVOA so they fit those trends above, but Buffalo has struggled on the road for years and comes in with a slew of injuries, though the potential return of Ed Oliver and Curtis Samuel should help. Josh Allen comes in banged up too, but this is the game Buffalo has rebuilt itself for. It will be a tough matchup for Allen against a ferocious pass rush and tough secondary, especially with so few receivers, but the Bills are not a one-man team anymore. Buffalo is at its best when it leans into its power run game, and the Bills can control the clock and attack the heart of this Denver defense that way. The Broncos funnel opponent runners inside but rank 22nd by EPA per play there compared to 2nd on outside runs. That's typically a winning strategy since outside runs can be more dangerous and explosive. But that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do with James Cook and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bills are below league average running outside but rank 2nd on inside runs. Cook and Allen should be in for big games, and don't forget about Buffalo's valuable tush push with Allen in short yardage situations. Denver faced only one opponent all season in the top quarter of the league in rushing, and Jonathan Taylor ran 25 times for 165 yards in a Colts win. And the Bills aren't just a good rushing team — they rank 2nd in DVOA and have the league's leading rusher in Cook. There's reason to believe Buffalo's defense can hang too. The Bills rank top five on the season in EPA per play defending 11 personnel but fall apart against 12 or 21, but Denver doesn't have the RB or TE depth to attack from diverse personnel. Instead, the Broncos feature a ton of short passing, but Buffalo ranks top five against short passes by EPA. You beat the Bills defense by running the ball, and that's not Denver's strength, nor their m.o. The Broncos are actually one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. We just saw these teams play in last year's playoffs, and it was ugly for Denver. The Broncos hit an early bomb, then gave up 31 straight points. Buffalo finished in the 95th percentile or better EPA and Success Rate, doubling up Denver in first downs and more than doubling them in yardage. The Bills ran 31 more plays with 42 minutes of possession as Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. That's the exact script for these Bills, and it's a version of the team that frankly didn't exist a couple years ago. Historic trends tell us to fade favorites in the Divisional Round, with bettors too focused on past record and not enough on what a team has become. Favorites that won over 75% of their regular season games are just 18-35 ATS this round (34%) over the past two decades, and 1-seeds after a bye are just 15-19-1 ATS (34%), including an ugly 3-10 ATS and 6-7 SU as six-point favorites or worse like Denver. And after all that, we haven't even talked about the biggest mismatch of the weekend — Josh Allen versus Bo Nix. Allen is the best QB in the playoffs, maybe in football, and Nix is the worst quarterback left in the postseason. Allen can handle the Denver pass rush and add value in the run game, while Nix has yet to prove his mettle in big games and is far worse against zone in his career. He could struggle with Sean McDermott's coverages, especially when McDermott disguises things to confuse Nix. When Allen is anything under a field goal favorite in his career, he's 34-19-2 ATS, covering 64% of the time. When Allen faces a defense that allows 20 PPG or less, he's even better at 29-10-1 ATS. That's just ahead of Tom Brady among all players over the last two decades. Translation: elite quarterbacks are going to find a way to score some points, even against your great defense, because elite quarterback equals elite offense, and elite offense beats elite defense. Ready for one last killer trend? Just combine those two. When Josh Allen is under a field goal favorite facing a defense that allows 10 PPG or less, he's a ridiculous 19-3-1 ATS in his career. That's an insane 86% cover rate, and Allen has won 14 of his last 16 such games outright — all but those two memorable Chiefs playoff losses. That trend will apply next round too, by the way, and would against Seattle in a Super Bowl too. I'm ready to buy Allen and Buffalo stock. Start with the Bills moneyline at -102 (FanDuel) to get the win, but we're not stopping there. The Bills have scored at least 24 points in nine of Allen's last 10 playoff games, so over 23.5 is a no brainer at +100 (DraftKings) against this overrated Denver defense. Buffalo averages 29.6 PPG in those games, so play 27+ points too at +200 (DraftKings), a number Allen's Bills have hit eight of the last 10 playoff games. With the Seattle and New England games both expected to be lower-scoring, Buffalo could end up with the highest score of the weekend. Bet them at +800 to do so (FanDuel) and hope the Chicago weather dampens the Rams-Bears game to give us a shot. Buffalo has won eight of its 13 games this season by at least a touchdown and over half of their wins are by double digits, including wins by 19, 20, 27, and 31. If we expect the Bills to score and think Denver might struggle to do so, this could get ugly. Last year in this spot, we smashed Bills alts at -7.5, all the way to -23.5 at +520, so let's run it back and go for the double. If the Bills do win, they may win by margin. Bet Bills -5.5 at +225 and Bills -9.5 at +450, and sprinkle a bit on Buffalo -16.5 at +900 too in case this really gets away from Denver (all FanDuel). Is it finally Buffalo's time? It is on Saturday.

I am officially putting the Broncos on fraud watch. We're thinking about this team all wrong. I keep seeing Denver grouped in with Seattle and Houston as a defense-only juggernaut and that's just now what this team has been at all for half a season. Since Week 11 (all stats excluding Week 18), the Broncos are better offensively than you're probably giving them credit for — and way, WAY worse defensively. The offense ranks 7th by DVOA during that stretch and could be a saving grace, but the defense has plummeted all the way to 18th, and it has the same rating in games against teams in the top half of the league over the full season. In the first nine weeks this season, Denver ranked top-six against both the run and the pass; over the final nine weeks, the Broncos finished outside the top-12 at both. Those patterns continued even once the overrated Patrick Surtain returned healthy to the lineup, and it's not a new pattern either. Last season this same defense dropped to 14th in DVOA over the exact same stretch to close the season. The defense has also fallen off mightily against top-12 offenses, allowing almost 28 PPG in those matchups. Denver is the 1-seed, but the Broncos trailed in all but two wins this season and got a flurry of one-score victories. Flip those usually coin-flip outcomes and Denver goes 5-12 this year, bottom of the AFC. Bo Nix is 1-8 in his career against winning teams that score over 17 points. Sean Payton has lost four of his last five playoff games, three as a home favorite, with the only win over an 8-8 Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky squad. The Broncos are not your typical 1-seed. Over the past two seasons, Denver has played eight games against teams that finished top 10 by DVOA. The Broncos went 1-7 in those games with an awful -83 point differential. We've been waiting all season for an opportunity to fade this team in this spot as an overrated 1-seed — the question is whether Buffalo is the right team to ride with. The Bills are a great offense and rank 8th by DVOA so they fit those trends above, but Buffalo has struggled on the road for years and comes in with a slew of injuries, though the potential return of Ed Oliver and Curtis Samuel should help. Josh Allen comes in banged up too, but this is the game Buffalo has rebuilt itself for. It will be a tough matchup for Allen against a ferocious pass rush and tough secondary, especially with so few receivers, but the Bills are not a one-man team anymore. Buffalo is at its best when it leans into its power run game, and the Bills can control the clock and attack the heart of this Denver defense that way. The Broncos funnel opponent runners inside but rank 22nd by EPA per play there compared to 2nd on outside runs. That's typically a winning strategy since outside runs can be more dangerous and explosive. But that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do with James Cook and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bills are below league average running outside but rank 2nd on inside runs. Cook and Allen should be in for big games, and don't forget about Buffalo's valuable tush push with Allen in short yardage situations. Denver faced only one opponent all season in the top quarter of the league in rushing, and Jonathan Taylor ran 25 times for 165 yards in a Colts win. And the Bills aren't just a good rushing team — they rank 2nd in DVOA and have the league's leading rusher in Cook. There's reason to believe Buffalo's defense can hang too. The Bills rank top five on the season in EPA per play defending 11 personnel but fall apart against 12 or 21, but Denver doesn't have the RB or TE depth to attack from diverse personnel. Instead, the Broncos feature a ton of short passing, but Buffalo ranks top five against short passes by EPA. You beat the Bills defense by running the ball, and that's not Denver's strength, nor their m.o. The Broncos are actually one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. We just saw these teams play in last year's playoffs, and it was ugly for Denver. The Broncos hit an early bomb, then gave up 31 straight points. Buffalo finished in the 95th percentile or better EPA and Success Rate, doubling up Denver in first downs and more than doubling them in yardage. The Bills ran 31 more plays with 42 minutes of possession as Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. That's the exact script for these Bills, and it's a version of the team that frankly didn't exist a couple years ago. Historic trends tell us to fade favorites in the Divisional Round, with bettors too focused on past record and not enough on what a team has become. Favorites that won over 75% of their regular season games are just 18-35 ATS this round (34%) over the past two decades, and 1-seeds after a bye are just 15-19-1 ATS (34%), including an ugly 3-10 ATS and 6-7 SU as six-point favorites or worse like Denver. And after all that, we haven't even talked about the biggest mismatch of the weekend — Josh Allen versus Bo Nix. Allen is the best QB in the playoffs, maybe in football, and Nix is the worst quarterback left in the postseason. Allen can handle the Denver pass rush and add value in the run game, while Nix has yet to prove his mettle in big games and is far worse against zone in his career. He could struggle with Sean McDermott's coverages, especially when McDermott disguises things to confuse Nix. When Allen is anything under a field goal favorite in his career, he's 34-19-2 ATS, covering 64% of the time. When Allen faces a defense that allows 20 PPG or less, he's even better at 29-10-1 ATS. That's just ahead of Tom Brady among all players over the last two decades. Translation: elite quarterbacks are going to find a way to score some points, even against your great defense, because elite quarterback equals elite offense, and elite offense beats elite defense. Ready for one last killer trend? Just combine those two. When Josh Allen is under a field goal favorite facing a defense that allows 10 PPG or less, he's a ridiculous 19-3-1 ATS in his career. That's an insane 86% cover rate, and Allen has won 14 of his last 16 such games outright — all but those two memorable Chiefs playoff losses. That trend will apply next round too, by the way, and would against Seattle in a Super Bowl too. I'm ready to buy Allen and Buffalo stock. Start with the Bills moneyline at -102 (FanDuel) to get the win, but we're not stopping there. The Bills have scored at least 24 points in nine of Allen's last 10 playoff games, so over 23.5 is a no brainer at +100 (DraftKings) against this overrated Denver defense. Buffalo averages 29.6 PPG in those games, so play 27+ points too at +200 (DraftKings), a number Allen's Bills have hit eight of the last 10 playoff games. With the Seattle and New England games both expected to be lower-scoring, Buffalo could end up with the highest score of the weekend. Bet them at +800 to do so (FanDuel) and hope the Chicago weather dampens the Rams-Bears game to give us a shot. Buffalo has won eight of its 13 games this season by at least a touchdown and over half of their wins are by double digits, including wins by 19, 20, 27, and 31. If we expect the Bills to score and think Denver might struggle to do so, this could get ugly. Last year in this spot, we smashed Bills alts at -7.5, all the way to -23.5 at +520, so let's run it back and go for the double. If the Bills do win, they may win by margin. Bet Bills -5.5 at +225 and Bills -9.5 at +450, and sprinkle a bit on Buffalo -16.5 at +900 too in case this really gets away from Denver (all FanDuel). Is it finally Buffalo's time? It is on Saturday.

I am officially putting the Broncos on fraud watch. We're thinking about this team all wrong. I keep seeing Denver grouped in with Seattle and Houston as a defense-only juggernaut and that's just now what this team has been at all for half a season. Since Week 11 (all stats excluding Week 18), the Broncos are better offensively than you're probably giving them credit for — and way, WAY worse defensively. The offense ranks 7th by DVOA during that stretch and could be a saving grace, but the defense has plummeted all the way to 18th, and it has the same rating in games against teams in the top half of the league over the full season. In the first nine weeks this season, Denver ranked top-six against both the run and the pass; over the final nine weeks, the Broncos finished outside the top-12 at both. Those patterns continued even once the overrated Patrick Surtain returned healthy to the lineup, and it's not a new pattern either. Last season this same defense dropped to 14th in DVOA over the exact same stretch to close the season. The defense has also fallen off mightily against top-12 offenses, allowing almost 28 PPG in those matchups. Denver is the 1-seed, but the Broncos trailed in all but two wins this season and got a flurry of one-score victories. Flip those usually coin-flip outcomes and Denver goes 5-12 this year, bottom of the AFC. Bo Nix is 1-8 in his career against winning teams that score over 17 points. Sean Payton has lost four of his last five playoff games, three as a home favorite, with the only win over an 8-8 Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky squad. The Broncos are not your typical 1-seed. Over the past two seasons, Denver has played eight games against teams that finished top 10 by DVOA. The Broncos went 1-7 in those games with an awful -83 point differential. We've been waiting all season for an opportunity to fade this team in this spot as an overrated 1-seed — the question is whether Buffalo is the right team to ride with. The Bills are a great offense and rank 8th by DVOA so they fit those trends above, but Buffalo has struggled on the road for years and comes in with a slew of injuries, though the potential return of Ed Oliver and Curtis Samuel should help. Josh Allen comes in banged up too, but this is the game Buffalo has rebuilt itself for. It will be a tough matchup for Allen against a ferocious pass rush and tough secondary, especially with so few receivers, but the Bills are not a one-man team anymore. Buffalo is at its best when it leans into its power run game, and the Bills can control the clock and attack the heart of this Denver defense that way. The Broncos funnel opponent runners inside but rank 22nd by EPA per play there compared to 2nd on outside runs. That's typically a winning strategy since outside runs can be more dangerous and explosive. But that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do with James Cook and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bills are below league average running outside but rank 2nd on inside runs. Cook and Allen should be in for big games, and don't forget about Buffalo's valuable tush push with Allen in short yardage situations. Denver faced only one opponent all season in the top quarter of the league in rushing, and Jonathan Taylor ran 25 times for 165 yards in a Colts win. And the Bills aren't just a good rushing team — they rank 2nd in DVOA and have the league's leading rusher in Cook. There's reason to believe Buffalo's defense can hang too. The Bills rank top five on the season in EPA per play defending 11 personnel but fall apart against 12 or 21, but Denver doesn't have the RB or TE depth to attack from diverse personnel. Instead, the Broncos feature a ton of short passing, but Buffalo ranks top five against short passes by EPA. You beat the Bills defense by running the ball, and that's not Denver's strength, nor their m.o. The Broncos are actually one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. We just saw these teams play in last year's playoffs, and it was ugly for Denver. The Broncos hit an early bomb, then gave up 31 straight points. Buffalo finished in the 95th percentile or better EPA and Success Rate, doubling up Denver in first downs and more than doubling them in yardage. The Bills ran 31 more plays with 42 minutes of possession as Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. That's the exact script for these Bills, and it's a version of the team that frankly didn't exist a couple years ago. Historic trends tell us to fade favorites in the Divisional Round, with bettors too focused on past record and not enough on what a team has become. Favorites that won over 75% of their regular season games are just 18-35 ATS this round (34%) over the past two decades, and 1-seeds after a bye are just 15-19-1 ATS (34%), including an ugly 3-10 ATS and 6-7 SU as six-point favorites or worse like Denver. And after all that, we haven't even talked about the biggest mismatch of the weekend — Josh Allen versus Bo Nix. Allen is the best QB in the playoffs, maybe in football, and Nix is the worst quarterback left in the postseason. Allen can handle the Denver pass rush and add value in the run game, while Nix has yet to prove his mettle in big games and is far worse against zone in his career. He could struggle with Sean McDermott's coverages, especially when McDermott disguises things to confuse Nix. When Allen is anything under a field goal favorite in his career, he's 34-19-2 ATS, covering 64% of the time. When Allen faces a defense that allows 20 PPG or less, he's even better at 29-10-1 ATS. That's just ahead of Tom Brady among all players over the last two decades. Translation: elite quarterbacks are going to find a way to score some points, even against your great defense, because elite quarterback equals elite offense, and elite offense beats elite defense. Ready for one last killer trend? Just combine those two. When Josh Allen is under a field goal favorite facing a defense that allows 10 PPG or less, he's a ridiculous 19-3-1 ATS in his career. That's an insane 86% cover rate, and Allen has won 14 of his last 16 such games outright — all but those two memorable Chiefs playoff losses. That trend will apply next round too, by the way, and would against Seattle in a Super Bowl too. I'm ready to buy Allen and Buffalo stock. Start with the Bills moneyline at -102 (FanDuel) to get the win, but we're not stopping there. The Bills have scored at least 24 points in nine of Allen's last 10 playoff games, so over 23.5 is a no brainer at +100 (DraftKings) against this overrated Denver defense. Buffalo averages 29.6 PPG in those games, so play 27+ points too at +200 (DraftKings), a number Allen's Bills have hit eight of the last 10 playoff games. With the Seattle and New England games both expected to be lower-scoring, Buffalo could end up with the highest score of the weekend. Bet them at +800 to do so (FanDuel) and hope the Chicago weather dampens the Rams-Bears game to give us a shot. Buffalo has won eight of its 13 games this season by at least a touchdown and over half of their wins are by double digits, including wins by 19, 20, 27, and 31. If we expect the Bills to score and think Denver might struggle to do so, this could get ugly. Last year in this spot, we smashed Bills alts at -7.5, all the way to -23.5 at +520, so let's run it back and go for the double. If the Bills do win, they may win by margin. Bet Bills -5.5 at +225 and Bills -9.5 at +450, and sprinkle a bit on Buffalo -16.5 at +900 too in case this really gets away from Denver (all FanDuel). Is it finally Buffalo's time? It is on Saturday.

I am officially putting the Broncos on fraud watch. We're thinking about this team all wrong. I keep seeing Denver grouped in with Seattle and Houston as a defense-only juggernaut and that's just now what this team has been at all for half a season. Since Week 11 (all stats excluding Week 18), the Broncos are better offensively than you're probably giving them credit for — and way, WAY worse defensively. The offense ranks 7th by DVOA during that stretch and could be a saving grace, but the defense has plummeted all the way to 18th, and it has the same rating in games against teams in the top half of the league over the full season. In the first nine weeks this season, Denver ranked top-six against both the run and the pass; over the final nine weeks, the Broncos finished outside the top-12 at both. Those patterns continued even once the overrated Patrick Surtain returned healthy to the lineup, and it's not a new pattern either. Last season this same defense dropped to 14th in DVOA over the exact same stretch to close the season. The defense has also fallen off mightily against top-12 offenses, allowing almost 28 PPG in those matchups. Denver is the 1-seed, but the Broncos trailed in all but two wins this season and got a flurry of one-score victories. Flip those usually coin-flip outcomes and Denver goes 5-12 this year, bottom of the AFC. Bo Nix is 1-8 in his career against winning teams that score over 17 points. Sean Payton has lost four of his last five playoff games, three as a home favorite, with the only win over an 8-8 Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky squad. The Broncos are not your typical 1-seed. Over the past two seasons, Denver has played eight games against teams that finished top 10 by DVOA. The Broncos went 1-7 in those games with an awful -83 point differential. We've been waiting all season for an opportunity to fade this team in this spot as an overrated 1-seed — the question is whether Buffalo is the right team to ride with. The Bills are a great offense and rank 8th by DVOA so they fit those trends above, but Buffalo has struggled on the road for years and comes in with a slew of injuries, though the potential return of Ed Oliver and Curtis Samuel should help. Josh Allen comes in banged up too, but this is the game Buffalo has rebuilt itself for. It will be a tough matchup for Allen against a ferocious pass rush and tough secondary, especially with so few receivers, but the Bills are not a one-man team anymore. Buffalo is at its best when it leans into its power run game, and the Bills can control the clock and attack the heart of this Denver defense that way. The Broncos funnel opponent runners inside but rank 22nd by EPA per play there compared to 2nd on outside runs. That's typically a winning strategy since outside runs can be more dangerous and explosive. But that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do with James Cook and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bills are below league average running outside but rank 2nd on inside runs. Cook and Allen should be in for big games, and don't forget about Buffalo's valuable tush push with Allen in short yardage situations. Denver faced only one opponent all season in the top quarter of the league in rushing, and Jonathan Taylor ran 25 times for 165 yards in a Colts win. And the Bills aren't just a good rushing team — they rank 2nd in DVOA and have the league's leading rusher in Cook. There's reason to believe Buffalo's defense can hang too. The Bills rank top five on the season in EPA per play defending 11 personnel but fall apart against 12 or 21, but Denver doesn't have the RB or TE depth to attack from diverse personnel. Instead, the Broncos feature a ton of short passing, but Buffalo ranks top five against short passes by EPA. You beat the Bills defense by running the ball, and that's not Denver's strength, nor their m.o. The Broncos are actually one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. We just saw these teams play in last year's playoffs, and it was ugly for Denver. The Broncos hit an early bomb, then gave up 31 straight points. Buffalo finished in the 95th percentile or better EPA and Success Rate, doubling up Denver in first downs and more than doubling them in yardage. The Bills ran 31 more plays with 42 minutes of possession as Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. That's the exact script for these Bills, and it's a version of the team that frankly didn't exist a couple years ago. Historic trends tell us to fade favorites in the Divisional Round, with bettors too focused on past record and not enough on what a team has become. Favorites that won over 75% of their regular season games are just 18-35 ATS this round (34%) over the past two decades, and 1-seeds after a bye are just 15-19-1 ATS (34%), including an ugly 3-10 ATS and 6-7 SU as six-point favorites or worse like Denver. And after all that, we haven't even talked about the biggest mismatch of the weekend — Josh Allen versus Bo Nix. Allen is the best QB in the playoffs, maybe in football, and Nix is the worst quarterback left in the postseason. Allen can handle the Denver pass rush and add value in the run game, while Nix has yet to prove his mettle in big games and is far worse against zone in his career. He could struggle with Sean McDermott's coverages, especially when McDermott disguises things to confuse Nix. When Allen is anything under a field goal favorite in his career, he's 34-19-2 ATS, covering 64% of the time. When Allen faces a defense that allows 20 PPG or less, he's even better at 29-10-1 ATS. That's just ahead of Tom Brady among all players over the last two decades. Translation: elite quarterbacks are going to find a way to score some points, even against your great defense, because elite quarterback equals elite offense, and elite offense beats elite defense. Ready for one last killer trend? Just combine those two. When Josh Allen is under a field goal favorite facing a defense that allows 10 PPG or less, he's a ridiculous 19-3-1 ATS in his career. That's an insane 86% cover rate, and Allen has won 14 of his last 16 such games outright — all but those two memorable Chiefs playoff losses. That trend will apply next round too, by the way, and would against Seattle in a Super Bowl too. I'm ready to buy Allen and Buffalo stock. Start with the Bills moneyline at -102 (FanDuel) to get the win, but we're not stopping there. The Bills have scored at least 24 points in nine of Allen's last 10 playoff games, so over 23.5 is a no brainer at +100 (DraftKings) against this overrated Denver defense. Buffalo averages 29.6 PPG in those games, so play 27+ points too at +200 (DraftKings), a number Allen's Bills have hit eight of the last 10 playoff games. With the Seattle and New England games both expected to be lower-scoring, Buffalo could end up with the highest score of the weekend. Bet them at +800 to do so (FanDuel) and hope the Chicago weather dampens the Rams-Bears game to give us a shot. Buffalo has won eight of its 13 games this season by at least a touchdown and over half of their wins are by double digits, including wins by 19, 20, 27, and 31. If we expect the Bills to score and think Denver might struggle to do so, this could get ugly. Last year in this spot, we smashed Bills alts at -7.5, all the way to -23.5 at +520, so let's run it back and go for the double. If the Bills do win, they may win by margin. Bet Bills -5.5 at +225 and Bills -9.5 at +450, and sprinkle a bit on Buffalo -16.5 at +900 too in case this really gets away from Denver (all FanDuel). Is it finally Buffalo's time? It is on Saturday.

I am officially putting the Broncos on fraud watch. We're thinking about this team all wrong. I keep seeing Denver grouped in with Seattle and Houston as a defense-only juggernaut and that's just now what this team has been at all for half a season. Since Week 11 (all stats excluding Week 18), the Broncos are better offensively than you're probably giving them credit for — and way, WAY worse defensively. The offense ranks 7th by DVOA during that stretch and could be a saving grace, but the defense has plummeted all the way to 18th, and it has the same rating in games against teams in the top half of the league over the full season. In the first nine weeks this season, Denver ranked top-six against both the run and the pass; over the final nine weeks, the Broncos finished outside the top-12 at both. Those patterns continued even once the overrated Patrick Surtain returned healthy to the lineup, and it's not a new pattern either. Last season this same defense dropped to 14th in DVOA over the exact same stretch to close the season. The defense has also fallen off mightily against top-12 offenses, allowing almost 28 PPG in those matchups. Denver is the 1-seed, but the Broncos trailed in all but two wins this season and got a flurry of one-score victories. Flip those usually coin-flip outcomes and Denver goes 5-12 this year, bottom of the AFC. Bo Nix is 1-8 in his career against winning teams that score over 17 points. Sean Payton has lost four of his last five playoff games, three as a home favorite, with the only win over an 8-8 Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky squad. The Broncos are not your typical 1-seed. Over the past two seasons, Denver has played eight games against teams that finished top 10 by DVOA. The Broncos went 1-7 in those games with an awful -83 point differential. We've been waiting all season for an opportunity to fade this team in this spot as an overrated 1-seed — the question is whether Buffalo is the right team to ride with. The Bills are a great offense and rank 8th by DVOA so they fit those trends above, but Buffalo has struggled on the road for years and comes in with a slew of injuries, though the potential return of Ed Oliver and Curtis Samuel should help. Josh Allen comes in banged up too, but this is the game Buffalo has rebuilt itself for. It will be a tough matchup for Allen against a ferocious pass rush and tough secondary, especially with so few receivers, but the Bills are not a one-man team anymore. Buffalo is at its best when it leans into its power run game, and the Bills can control the clock and attack the heart of this Denver defense that way. The Broncos funnel opponent runners inside but rank 22nd by EPA per play there compared to 2nd on outside runs. That's typically a winning strategy since outside runs can be more dangerous and explosive. But that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do with James Cook and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bills are below league average running outside but rank 2nd on inside runs. Cook and Allen should be in for big games, and don't forget about Buffalo's valuable tush push with Allen in short yardage situations. Denver faced only one opponent all season in the top quarter of the league in rushing, and Jonathan Taylor ran 25 times for 165 yards in a Colts win. And the Bills aren't just a good rushing team — they rank 2nd in DVOA and have the league's leading rusher in Cook. There's reason to believe Buffalo's defense can hang too. The Bills rank top five on the season in EPA per play defending 11 personnel but fall apart against 12 or 21, but Denver doesn't have the RB or TE depth to attack from diverse personnel. Instead, the Broncos feature a ton of short passing, but Buffalo ranks top five against short passes by EPA. You beat the Bills defense by running the ball, and that's not Denver's strength, nor their m.o. The Broncos are actually one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. We just saw these teams play in last year's playoffs, and it was ugly for Denver. The Broncos hit an early bomb, then gave up 31 straight points. Buffalo finished in the 95th percentile or better EPA and Success Rate, doubling up Denver in first downs and more than doubling them in yardage. The Bills ran 31 more plays with 42 minutes of possession as Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. That's the exact script for these Bills, and it's a version of the team that frankly didn't exist a couple years ago. Historic trends tell us to fade favorites in the Divisional Round, with bettors too focused on past record and not enough on what a team has become. Favorites that won over 75% of their regular season games are just 18-35 ATS this round (34%) over the past two decades, and 1-seeds after a bye are just 15-19-1 ATS (34%), including an ugly 3-10 ATS and 6-7 SU as six-point favorites or worse like Denver. And after all that, we haven't even talked about the biggest mismatch of the weekend — Josh Allen versus Bo Nix. Allen is the best QB in the playoffs, maybe in football, and Nix is the worst quarterback left in the postseason. Allen can handle the Denver pass rush and add value in the run game, while Nix has yet to prove his mettle in big games and is far worse against zone in his career. He could struggle with Sean McDermott's coverages, especially when McDermott disguises things to confuse Nix. When Allen is anything under a field goal favorite in his career, he's 34-19-2 ATS, covering 64% of the time. When Allen faces a defense that allows 20 PPG or less, he's even better at 29-10-1 ATS. That's just ahead of Tom Brady among all players over the last two decades. Translation: elite quarterbacks are going to find a way to score some points, even against your great defense, because elite quarterback equals elite offense, and elite offense beats elite defense. Ready for one last killer trend? Just combine those two. When Josh Allen is under a field goal favorite facing a defense that allows 10 PPG or less, he's a ridiculous 19-3-1 ATS in his career. That's an insane 86% cover rate, and Allen has won 14 of his last 16 such games outright — all but those two memorable Chiefs playoff losses. That trend will apply next round too, by the way, and would against Seattle in a Super Bowl too. I'm ready to buy Allen and Buffalo stock. Start with the Bills moneyline at -102 (FanDuel) to get the win, but we're not stopping there. The Bills have scored at least 24 points in nine of Allen's last 10 playoff games, so over 23.5 is a no brainer at +100 (DraftKings) against this overrated Denver defense. Buffalo averages 29.6 PPG in those games, so play 27+ points too at +200 (DraftKings), a number Allen's Bills have hit eight of the last 10 playoff games. With the Seattle and New England games both expected to be lower-scoring, Buffalo could end up with the highest score of the weekend. Bet them at +800 to do so (FanDuel) and hope the Chicago weather dampens the Rams-Bears game to give us a shot. Buffalo has won eight of its 13 games this season by at least a touchdown and over half of their wins are by double digits, including wins by 19, 20, 27, and 31. If we expect the Bills to score and think Denver might struggle to do so, this could get ugly. Last year in this spot, we smashed Bills alts at -7.5, all the way to -23.5 at +520, so let's run it back and go for the double. If the Bills do win, they may win by margin. Bet Bills -5.5 at +225 and Bills -9.5 at +450, and sprinkle a bit on Buffalo -16.5 at +900 too in case this really gets away from Denver (all FanDuel). Is it finally Buffalo's time? It is on Saturday.

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