Lions vs. Ravens Odds & Betting Predictions - September 23, 2025

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Boyd / FanDuel

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Squad play

delete your sportsbook

PX fucks

@LinesAtLunch stream squad ride

Hmmmm hmmmm

Pass the Prop best bet -105

The role hasn’t been there, even without Likely. Kolar is pushing him for snaps and routes. Flowers has taken over as the true alpha. Game script probably not in his favor once again.

MNF pick on Action Network podcast: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/monday-night-football-predictions-expert-best-bets-picks-props-for-lions-vs-ravens-mnf-qs

I don’t think I’ve ever taken an over this high in the NFL before, but there’s a first time for everything. I just don’t see a path where both teams don’t put up at least 28 points. The Ravens are averaging 40.5 points per game through two games, easily the best in football. Their 41 points against the Browns defense looks even more impressive by the day. That Browns unit is elite, holding the Bengals to 17 points and the Packers to just 10. For Baltimore to crack even 30 on them is beyond impressive. The Ravens offense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 3rd in offensive DVOA. They’d likely be number 1 in both if not for having played one fewer game than most teams. Baltimore is once again dominant on the ground, but they can also hurt you through the air. The Lions defense sits just 14th in EPA/play and 15th in DVOA, right around league average. They’re also generating little to no pressure. They rank just 21st in pass rush grade, which is a disaster against Lamar Jackson, who averages 8.5 yards per attempt and owns an 18% TD rate when not pressured. Detroit also allowed the fourth most rushing yards to QBs last season and the third most in 2023. This is not a good recipe against Lamar. Detroit’s coverage grade is only league average as well. The last time these teams met, the Ravens hung 38 points. Detroit’s offense is just as dangerous. They struggled in Week 1 without Ben Johnson but erupted for 52 points in Week 2. I had concerns about the offense under a new coordinator, but they look just fine. I also worried about the offensive line, but this unit owns the 4th best pass block grade in football. The Lions offense ranks 4th in EPA/play and might be the most explosive unit in the league. The trio of Gibbs, St. Brown, and Williams is almost unfair. The Ravens defense is only 19th in EPA/play and will be missing key pieces, including standout defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike and linebacker Kyle Van Noy. Baltimore has struggled to stop the run, allowing opposing backs to average 4.7 yards per carry, which is bad news against an elite Detroit rushing attack. The Lions are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games on extended rest. Dan Campbell with extra preparation is a scary sight. I also think the new NFL kickoff rule is quietly creating more scoring. Offenses are starting with better field position, leading to shorter drives and easier scoring chances. By encouraging more returns and reducing touchbacks, offenses are consistently operating with more favorable yardage to open possessions. This is something I don’t think is fully priced into totals yet. I expect a shootout in Baltimore. With 54 as a key number, make sure to grab the over at 53.5.

Tailing @nick_giffen

Deep ball

DET/BAL Under 54 -105 CZR Strong Luck Under Luck Total -2.24 Strong Luck Unders are 47-26-1 to the under (64.4%) Strong Luck Unders that reach 53.5 or higher total are 10-1 to the under Two team with negative PROE (run heavy rel to expected game script) and two of 3 slowest teams in sec/snap since start of 2024 Overpossession (these teams combine for nearly 63 min of possession per game since start of last year), obviously these offenses won’t be able to do that unless we get OT Get the key number of 54

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

This is the same idea as the Nubin look. Kerby hasn’t cleared 5.5 through two games, and he only cleared it 41% of the time last season. He’s been lined up deeper while Brian Branch has lived in the box/slot creating chaos. With Jack Campbell strong in run support and D.J. Reed tackling well for a corner, Kerby just hasn’t had to clean up as much. The Ravens are freaking good and score on fewer plays than most teams; touchdowns are also the one snap (rare) that does not create a tackle opportunity. They were below average in feeding tackles to safeties last year and sit 7th fewest so far in 2025. Kerby will mix in on longer Derrick Henry runs, Lamar scrambles, and explosives to Zay Flowers or DeAndre Hopkins, but snap to snap the distribution usually lands with the DL, Branch, or Campbell. Detroit is a also a team that is better equipped to play keep away and keep the clock running with the Ravens offense on the sideline, potentially lowering their overall volume even more. I have Joseph around 4.7 tackles plus assists and about 62% to stay under 5.5. Kerby, Campbell, and Reed were listed as questionable; I expect them to go.

As much as i could get down at FD under game specials. Mainly played for fun but like the price a lot so i’ll give it out, not tracking on twitter card

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker. Can actually get this on Sleeper for o13.5 with a promo multiplier so that’s where I’m playing it.

Vroom vroom

D. Henry ⬇️ 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-120 @ Fanatics)(BAL) First off, even with Baltimore’s identity as a run-first offense, Henry has not hit 20 carries yet this season, posting 18 in Week 1 and just 11 in Week 2. That includes the Buffalo game where he absolutely dominated, ripping off 169 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries, yet still coming in under this number. That’s telling—Henry doesn’t necessarily need a huge volume to be effective, and the Ravens don’t seem intent on forcing him into the 20+ carry range. This matchup against Detroit looks tougher as well. The Lions’ defense has been stout against opposing running backs to start the season, allowing just 66 rushing yards to Josh Jacobs in Week 1 and 63 to D’Andre Swift in Week 2. They’ve shown they’re willing to sell out to slow down the ground game and make opponents beat them through the air, which is exactly the type of game plan they’re likely to deploy against Henry. Another element is Baltimore’s backfield usage. While Henry is clearly the workhorse, he has lost a handful of touches to others not named Lamar Jackson. In Week 1, Zay Flowers, Rasheen Ali, and Justice Hill combined for 5 carries, while in Week 2 Justice Hill chipped in 3 more, Flowers added another, and Mark Andrews even took a tush-push short-yardage carry. These “nibbles” at the workload, while small, are meaningful when the line sits as high as 19.5 attempts. Ultimately, this line feels too inflated when factoring in matchup, usage, and game environment. Henry has shown he can produce monster stat lines without hitting 20 carries, and against a defense that will key in on him, I expect his workload to stay in the mid-to-high teens.

Master Bateman

the Ravens

This might go up more by kickoff but I have Andrews odds at +160 so if FD gonna offer +196, I’ll take it!

Gibbs got here in 7 of 13 games before David Montgomery's injury last year and is 1 for 2 so far this year. Ravens' rush defense hasn't been elite this year and is missing some key players up front.

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ProphetX

365

Gibbs has 10 and 3 REC through two weeks - AVG a 19.4% TRG% (Tied-2nd on DET) and 0.32 TPRR (1st among starters). DET are +4.5 underdogs and in losses since 2024 they AVG an insane 70% Pass% - in games they AVG a 50%+ Pass% Gibbs is over 9/11 - AVG 5.09 REC. In losses since 2024, Gibbs has 7, 5, 6, 10 REC on 7, 7, 11, 10 TRG. In games Gibbs has 5+ TRG, he's over 8/9 games since 2024. Through two weeks, BAL are allowing the 7th highest back TRG% (20.7%) - ranked #10 last season w/ a 16.7% back TRG%. RB rooms vs. BAL: - CLE: 11 REC / 12 TRG - BUF: 6 TRG / 6 TRG Gibbs is the primary receiving back for DET, especially in two-minute drills / when they're down.

My numbers make this Lions -3.5 so I’m clearly off on someone, willing to take the shot on Detroit. I don’t think there’s much of a gap between these 2 teams.