Seahawks vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 14, 2025

Boyd / FanDuel

Projection: 0.46 TDs, +154. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

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Tailing @ChrisRaybon

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

While Rodgers looked like he finally found the right offseason drug cocktail to flash some of his Packers glory days in Week 1, 71% of his 244 passing yards were after the catch, the highest rate of the week He had the lowest average air yards of the week at 4.3 and did not attempt a single pass 20+ yards downfield. If the Steelers repeat anything close to that approach this week, it will be much tougher for him to clear this prop. Last week Pittsburgh trailed for about 40 minutes, which forced them into a pass heavy game script. As 3-point home favorites here, they should be able to lean on the run more. Seattle should also be very run heavy and eat up time of possession, while their defense should be much better in year two under Mike Macdonald. I would set Rodgers’ median closer to 223.5 yards with a handful of underlying factors pointing to a lower passing yardage outcome.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

In Week 2, I’m usually looking for misleading box scores where the public may overreact, but this one is a bit of a mixed bag. Barner is certainly going to project better than his 0-yard showing in Week 1 (2 targets, 1 catch), but I still think this line is too high. After the Noah Fant trade and with new OC Klint Kubiak, it was unclear how Seattle’s TE room would shake out. Barner emerged as the clear lead, running a route on 73% of dropbacks. That was expected.. as he is strong blocker with occasional flashes as a pass catcher. But Elijah Arroyo (their 2nd-round pick and arguably the best pure receiver of the group) is likely to carve out more work going forward. Seattle only ran 10 plays on 3rd down last week (2nd fewest in the league), so if Arroyo starts handling more of those pass heavy situations, Barner’s route share could slip. Even if it holds steady around 70%, I only project him for ~2 receptions. This passing game is funneling through Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who won’t keep a 90% air-yard share but is clearly the centerpiece. On top of that, Seattle looks extremely run-heavy.. they had the 3rd-lowest PROE in Week 1. Even if Barner grabs 2–3 receptions, he still has a decent chance to stay under. His Week 1 aDOT was just 1.4 (3.5 last year), and given his shallow route tree, three catches could still leave him below 21.5 yards nearly 40% of the time. Yes, a fluky busted coverage could push him over such a low prop, but these are the long-term spots I want to invest in. I have his median closer to 15.5 yards with about a 61% chance he stays under 21.5.

MGM

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Sam Darnold +3

There may be some value on the TD passes prop for Sam Darnold. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.14 TD passes, and the oddsmakers are implying 1.31. The model believes there is a 46% chance he records fewer than 0.5 TD passes. If you can get the under at +210 or better, there is some great value here. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/nfl?ref=inf8qq%22%3EEV Analytics!

@wheatonbrando Hot Read https://myaction.app/iiVeeKDkvWb

🔥 Week 2 Hot Read 🔥 Unders were the trend on Sun afternoon, 11-1 under and we should see under money follow Seahawks D looked nasty & aggressive, flying around & held 49ers to 17. Pressure should bother Rodgers who wasn’t as good as the stats would say Sun, 4 sacks and 4.4 ADOT steelers D not great against the Jets but was a brand new O no one knew how to prepare for, Kubiak far more predictable & Seattle bad O line vs league best pass rush and Darnold Tomlin first 7g that open between 41-49 points are 58-24-1 (71% by 3.6 ppg Keep it simple and bet on two top six defenses and fade to bottom 10 quarterbacks. Already pushing 40 at some books, will probably close in the the 30s