Saints vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - October 8, 2024

Buy-low spot. Last three primary off ball LBs have crushed this line vs NO. Should be heavily involved in stopping Kamara in the running and passing game.

Added 2u, in on Mahomes for 3u 🐳

Bq

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Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Patrick Mahomes is averaging a career-low 226 passing yards per game, impacted by offensive line issues, forcing shorter passes (5.6 air yards, 32nd/33). He relied on Rashee Rice's YAC abilities (82.8% completion, 9.9 yards/target), but Rice's absence weakens the Chiefs' efficiency. The Saints' defense ranks second in DVOA and limits opposing passers (68.0 rating). Their offense struggles without Erik McCoy.

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It's Hunt time in KC again as Kareem has signed with his old team after the Pacheco injury. In his first game back with the team he rushed 14 times for 69 yards, and that was with his first carry coming in the 2nd quarter. Hunt picked right back up where he left off in Andy Reid's scheme and looks like he will now be the featured back. Hunt knows this system and was very successful in it for year in KC. KC is without Rice and will need other to step up for them and in this game where they are 6 point favorites at home, I would expect them to be using Hunt a lot to close out the game. Saints also have 3 banged up linebackers, but it does look like Davis will play and no official word on Werner, but he was limited in practice with a hamstring injury and Willie Gay is OUT. This creates a more favorable matchup for Hunt to get more touches.

X. Worthy ⬇️ 3.5 Receptions (-110 @ MGM)(+109 w/ 20% Boost) THE BLITZ 📽️: 3.03 Receptions This line has obviously jumped with a solid Week 4 game and with no Rice in this offense. But, let's take a look at Worthy's season averages compared to how we saw him used last week: **2024 Season** Route %: 92.2% Slot %: 34.8% Wide %: 65.2% ADOT: 12.1 Targets: 3.5 per game Receptions: 2.25 per game **Week 4** Route %: 93.5% Slot %: 41.9% Wide %: 58.1% ADOT: 21 Targets: 3 Receptions: 3 It really hasn't changed that much. He's going to continue to be a deep threat and could make one or two huge plays, but he's not going to play the Rice role. Worthy doesn't line up in-line at all and him playing a little more in the slot is a worse matchup against NO this season. These two teams also do not play at a high pace, and I think this could be a sneaky low scoring game with a pair of good defenses. NO rushes at the highest percent in the league. Running is a great way to control the clock. You would think that KC would have a low rush rate, but they are actually still in the top half in rush % per game. NO's defense have allowed quite a few yards this season thanks to playing ahead in several games. However, the 3 CB's they have are quite good, especially at limiting explosive plays. NO's defense ranks 5th lowest in adjusted net yards per attempt, 8th lowest in completion percentage and THE WORST QB passer rating against. Not a great matchup for a big deep ball threat that'll need to reel in most of his catches to hit 4 receptions.

Line via DK alt. Tailing Miguel + fading the public/touts

20% boost

Game Script

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-picks-xavier-worthy-juwan-johnson-saints-vs-chiefs

@GDAWG5000

Bet365

Breaking the cold streak one play at a time

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Saints have not spent much time trailing this season, their time of possession with the lead is 18 minutes per game vs 9 minutes while trailing on average this season. Tonight they’ll be +5.5 point underdogs, expecting a negative gamescript for them here. In losses, Kamara tends to run in the range of 20-30 routes since last season. He’s over this number in 7/9 losses with Derek Carr at QB. Like targeting RB receiving vs KC due to their 2 high shell, which they run at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL (65.4%). Derek Carr loves to target Kamara vs 2 high looks, as his 34% TPRR leads the team.

-Mahomes has cleared this in 2 straight games & in 6/L8 games overall -In primetime games, Mahomes has gone over in 14/L16 Games -The Saints are top 10 in coverage grade (per PFF), with the Chiefs offense not at full strength, I think we may see more scrambling from Mahomes tonight. The Saints also have the 5th highest man coverage rate -Mahomes has 4+ rush attempts in 3 straight games, when he has 4+ he has a 10+ long rush in 33/L37 games

After Carson Steele recorded his second fumble in three games, since Pacheco went down, Hunt lead the Chiefs backfield with 14 carries. He now comes into this matchup with his name atop the depth chart. Perine will mix in for a few carries, but Hunt should see the bulk of the running back attempts. Good matchup too - the Saints profile better against the pass than the run. This season: 3rd in DVOA against the pass, 8th vs the run (per FTN) - and last season it was 12th and 23rd. After two easy games against the Panthers and Cowboys running backs, the Saints got lit up by Saquon (17 for 147) and Allgeier/Bijan (15 for 88). Without Rashee, I see the Chiefs looking to run the ball - they actually are 11th in rushing play % in neutral gamescripts this season (50%, per RotoViz). And I do see this game staying at least neutral for the Chiefs. Their defense should be able to keep Kamara in check on the ground and neutralize Olave through the air. They’re also generating pressure on the QB at the league’s highest rate, and Derek Carr is traditionally a QB who has not dealt with pressure well. Play to -140.

Tailing @RoyalsProps

Very similar read to our Daniels play yesterday. Mobile QBs vs heavy man coverage defense which the Saints run at the 5th highest rate. Chiefs are without their top offensive weapons so a huge question mark on how much their skill players will be able to get open Taking this angle as Mahomes may have to take off an run more than usual Where there should be huge rushing lanes due to the man coverage. Mahomes has only gone over this line once this year but he cleared it multiple times last year in a similar situation where they lacked playmakers on offense.

Sura

Love this spot for Kamara who is one of if not the best receiving back in the league. 20 targets in through 4 games including two massive blowouts. Has hit this line 3/4 games aside from last week Chiefs are notorious for their blitz and man defense which should lead to screens and dumpoffs to Kamara where he is unbelievable after the catch. There should be designed receiving plays for him as well. Chiefs linebackers are not great in coverage so love the 1v1 matchup he should get. Some RBs as of late: Dobbins long of 14 Bijan long of 17 Justice Hill long of 18 Moss long of 17

Sandy

Gross as shit but we ride

2 unit play

Avery

Great spot for Bolton after he posted his lowest numbers of the season. LBs have feasted vs the saints due to the run heavy offense where the Saints rank first in attempts (138). Carr also loves checking it down to Kamara where Bolton should have plenty of opportunities as well. Saints also feature Williams in wildcat/short yardage packages which should lead to tackles as well LBs vs the Saints: Shaq Thompson: 10 TAs Zack Baun: 13 TAs Troy Andersen: 16 TAs Eric Kendricks: 8 TAs

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#ProSystem Extended rest unders Overall: 148-91-3,62% (ROI:19%) Season:1-3-0,25% (ROI:-52%)

Oddsjam

Mahomes has been booty cheeks on Mondays. We faded him and cashed on his first Monday game of the season, and we will look to do the same this week

Exec Decision

My model makes this Chiefs -1.46, Mahomes as FG or more fab 39-43-2 - Rashee rice out. Luck ranking game- Unlicky teams with a luck differential of 28 or more 23-12-1 65% Exec decision per @millmanc

@millmanc

Exec decision on The Fav

#LuckRankings

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