Bills vs. Jets Odds & Betting Predictions - October 15, 2024

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@shadybiev HCMM

Jets allowing 30 rec yards per game to RBs on a 19% target share (last year, they were at 23% target share and 38 YPG). Johnson should slot into the receiving role out of the backfield (he has almost 4 times the routes run as Davis does this season). Cook had cleared this line in 4/5, and with it being such a brutal spot for the Bills receivers, I see some checkdowns coming.

2.78% ev and projection leans to the over

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Buffalo's offense has faced challenges, struggling to gain yards and convert on third downs, with recent games revealing a drop in scoring. The Jets' defense has been strong, allowing few yards and points. Both teams' offensive struggles and defensive strengths suggest a low-scoring, grind-it-out game, continuing their historical trend.

Buffalo is allowing 62.4 receiving yards per game to Running backs this season. That is the most in the NFL  #PropBet

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-picks-tonight-for-dorian-williams-garrett-wilson

🔑 J. Allen o18.5 pass completions +102 (FanDuel) 2u I’m predicting a big Allen game. He hasn’t had one in almost 3 weeks, feels right he gets it done tn.

@nick_giffen

@GreenDotDaily

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

@GreenDotDaily

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Honda Civic

Tailing the @shadybiev HCMM

Need this for my lay!

Interim HC Jeff Ulbrich committed to a run-heavy offense, we should see that come into play tonight vs this Bills defense. Bills have been a run funnel defense this season. They run 2 high safety looks at the 5th highest rate in the NFL and rarely stack the box. 12th highest light box rate. They’re allowing the most yards before contact in the league as well. It’s supposed to be a pretty windy game tonight, could lead to a higher % of run plays. Should be a neutral gamescript here with a 1.5 point spread, look for the Jets to establish the run with their new look coaching staff and playcalling.

Tailing sharp.

Buffalo is allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per carry and a league-leading 2.6 yards before contact per attempt. That YBC number is crucial here, as Hall hasn't had any running room this season. Among running backs with at least 10 carries, Hall is dead last at 0.37 yards before contact per attempt. The matchup presents a big opportunity for the Jets' offensive line to put together a strong showing. The coaching staff shakeup in New York doesn't necessarily mean more work for Hall, but it wouldn't be a bad idea for new play caller Todd Downing to get the ball to his best player more often.

FanDuel

My model makes this 7.92. Josh Allen 12-3 in regular season prime time games. Don’t see the Jets taking this one after 2 Bills losses in a row. Good bounce back spot for Allen to be in the zone.

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Collab w/ @JakeMLB41

Tyler Bass has made at least two field goals in seven of the last eight meetings vs. the Jets dating back to 2020, most recently attempting at least three in the last two games with the same defense of Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed active. And the System Play is Back!!! With the Buffalo Bills being slight favorites against the Jets, since 2023, opposing kickers team’s who are favorites vs. the Jets have attempted at least two field goals in 12 of the 13 games.** These same teams are in winning/neutral game scripts and likely to kick a field goal than go for it on 4th especially if they have good enough talent to get good field position near the endzone. As a team, the Jets are only allowing teams to score at a 41.7% (sixth-lowest) and it’s more than likely they stall a defense than not. Looking at opposing teams vs. the Jets: Moody (SF) attempted 5, Lutz (DEN) attempted 2, Folk (TEN) Reichard (MIN) attempted 3, attempted 1 but Levis fumbled on the goal-line, & Slye (NE) attempted 1 in a blowout. Josh Allen is competent enough to lead his offense and keep this game close, but with both redzone weapons in James Cook and Khalil Shakir battling injuries during the week and limited during practice, this could help us in our favor as we look to continue the system trend for Bass to hit his prop tonight. #PlayerProps

Stop me when you’ve heard this one before - but Josh Allen runs in close/important games. He’s only 1/2 on the over in close games this season, but was 6/7 on this line in close games last season after Brady took over as OC. It’s gonna be real tough throwing on this jets defense, and Shakir (his best receiver this season) is a game time call. You can run on the Jets - but James Cook is also coming into this one banged up. I expect Allen to see some more designed runs, and continue to operate as the 3rd and 1 back. Neither offense is playing well enough to threaten a blowout - I do expect this one to stay close. And coming off a miserable offensive performance through the air, the Bills should be thinking about how to use Allen best versus a tough pass defense. And the Jets get pressure on the QB - 29.9% is the 6th highest mark. Allen has scrambled on 15% of his pressured dropbacks this season, compared to just 7% in a clean pocket (roughly in line with his last few seasons). I have him at 3-4 designed runs/sneaks and 4 scrambles. Potential for kneels as well.

fun lil MNF escalator